Similarity search in large time series databases has attracted much research interest recently. It is a difficult problem because of the typically high dimensionality of the data.. The most promising solutions' involve performing dimensionality reduction on the data, then indexing the reduced data with a multidimensional index structure. Many dimensionality reduction techniques have been proposed, including Singular Value Decomposition (SVD), the Discrete Fourier transform (DFT), and the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT). In this work we introduce a new dimensionality reduction technique which we call Adaptive Piecewise Constant Approximation (APCA). While previous techniques (e.g., SVD, DFT and DWT) choose a common representation for all the items in the database that minimizes the global reconstruction error, APCA approximates each time series by a set of constant value segments' of varying lengths' such that their individual reconstruction errors' are minimal. We show how APCA can be indexed using a multidimensional index structure. We propose two distance measures in the indexed space that exploit the high fidelity of APCA for fast searching: a lower bounding Euclidean distance approximation, and a non-lower bounding, but very tight Euclidean distance approximation and show how they can support fast exact searchin& and even faster approximate searching on the same index structure. We theoretically and empirically compare APCA to all the other techniques and demonstrate its' superiority.

... mining time series data. Literally hundreds of papers have introduced new algorithms to index, classify, cluster and segment time series. In this work we make the following claim. Much of this work has very little utility because the contribution made (speed in the case of indexing, accuracy in the case of classification and clustering, model accuracy in the case of segmentation) offer an amount of "improvement" that would have been completely dwarfed by the variance that would have been observed by testing on many real world datasets, or the variance that would have been observed by changing minor (unstated) implementation details. To illustrate our point

The problem of similarity search in large time series databases has attracted much attention recently. It is a non-trivial problem because of the inherent high dimensionality of the data. The most promising solutions involve first performing dimensionality reduction on the data, and then indexing the reduced data with a spatial access method. Three major dimensionality reduction techniques have been proposed, Singular Value Decomposition (SVD), the Discrete Fourier transform (DFT), and more recently the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT). In this work we introduce a new dimensionality reduction technique which we call Piecewise Aggregate Approximation (PAA). We theoretically and empirically compare it to the other techniques and demonstrate its superiority. In addition to being competitive with or faster than the other methods, our approach has numerous other advantages. It is simple to understand and to implement, it allows more flexible distance measures, including weighted Euclidean queries, and the index can be built in linear time.

Several important time series data mining problems reduce to the core task of finding approximately repeated subsequences in a longer time series. In an earlier work, we formalized the idea of approximately repeated subsequences by introducing the notion of time series motifs. Two limitations of this work were the poor scalability of the motif discovery algorithm, and the inability to discover motifs in the presence of noise. Here we address these limitations by introducing a novel algorithm inspired by recent advances in the problem of pattern discovery in biosequences. Our algorithm is probabilistic in nature, but as we show empirically and theoretically, it can find time series motifs with very high probability even in the presence of noise or “don’t care ” symbols. Not only is the algorithm fast, but it is an anytime algorithm, producing likely candidate motifs almost immediately, and gradually improving the quality of results over time.

The problem of finding a specified pattern in a time series database (i.e. query by content) has received much attention and is now a relatively mature field. In contrast, the important problem of enumerating all surprising or interesting patterns has received far less attention. This problem requires a meaningful definition of "surprise", and an efficient search technique. All previous attempts at finding surprising patterns in time series use a very limited notion of surprise, and/or do not scale to massive datasets. To overcome these lim- itations we introduce a novel technique that defines a pattern surprising if the frequency of its occurrence differs substantially from that expected by chance, given some previously seen data. This notion has the advantage of not requiring an explicit definition of surprise, which may be impossible to elicit from a domain expert. Instead the user simply gives the algorithm a collection of previously observed normal data. Our algorithm uses a suffix tree to efficiently encode the frequency of all observed patterns and allows a Markov model to predict the expected frequency of previously unobserved patterns. Once the suffix tree has been constructed, a measure of surprise for all the patterns in a new database can be determined in time and space linear in the size of the database. We demonstrate the utility of our approach with an extensive experimental evaluation.

Time series data is perhaps the most frequently encountered type of data examined by the data mining community. Clustering is perhaps the most frequently used data mining algorithm, being useful in it’s own right as an exploratory technique, and also as a subroutine in more complex data mining algorithms such as rule discovery, indexing, summarization, anomaly detection, and classification. Given these two facts, it is hardly surprising that time series clustering has attracted much attention. The data to be clustered can be in one of two formats: many individual time series, or a single time series, from which individual time series are extracted with a sliding window. Given the recent explosion of interest in streaming data and online algorithms, the latter case has received much attention. In this work we make a surprising claim. Clustering of streaming time series is completely meaningless. More concretely, clusters extracted from streaming time series are forced to obey a certain constraint that is pathologically unlikely to be satisfied by any dataset, and because of this, the clusters extracted by any clustering algorithm are essentially random. While this constraint can be intuitively demonstrated with a simple illustration and is simple to prove, it has never appeared in the literature. We can justify calling our claim surprising, since it invalidates the contribution of dozens of previously published papers. We will justify our claim with a theorem, illustrative examples, and a comprehensive set of experiments on reimplementations of previous work. Although the primary contribution of our work is to draw attention to the fact that an apparent solution to an important problem is incorrect and should no longer be used, we also introduce a novel method which, based on the concept of time series motifs, is able to meaningfully cluster some streaming time series datasets.

The problem of efficiently locating previously known patterns in a time series database (i.e., query by content) has received much attention and may now largely be regarded as a solved problem. However, from a knowledge discovery viewpoint, a more interesting problem is the enumeration of previously unknown, frequently occurring patterns. We call such patterns "motifs," because of their close analogy to their discrete counterparts in computation biology. An efficient motif discovery algorithm for time series would be useful as a tool for summarizing and visualizing massive time series databases. In addition, it could be used as a subroutine in various other data mining tasks, including the discovery of association rules, clustering and classification. In this work we carefully motivate, then introduce, a non-trivial definition of time series motifs. We propose an efficient algorithm to discover them, and we demonstrate the utility and efficiency of our approach on several real world datasets.

In many applications, the data of interest comprises multiple sequences that evolve over time. Examples include currency exchange rates, network traffic data. We develop a fast method to analyze such co-evolving time sequences jointly to allow (a) estimation/forecasting of missing /delayed/future values, (b) quantitative data mining,and (c) outlier detection. Our method, MUSCLES, adapts to changing correlations among time sequences. It can handle indefinitely long sequences efficiently using an incremental algorithm and requires only small amount of storage and less I/O operations. To make it scale for a large number of sequences, we present a variation, the Selective MUSCLES method and propose an efficient algorithm to reduce the problem size. Experiments on real datasets show that MUSCLES outperforms popular competitors in prediction accuracy up to 10 times, and discovers interesting correlations. Moreover, Selective MUSCLES scales up very well for large numbers of sequences, reducing response time up to 110 times over MUSCLES, and sometimes even improves the prediction quality.

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. Recently, association rule mining has been generalized to the discovery of episodes in event sequences. In this paper, we additionally take durations into account and thus present a generalization to time intervals. We discover frequent temporal patterns in a single series of such labeled intervals, which we call a state sequence. A temporal pattern is dened as a set of states together with their interval relationships described in terms of Allen's interval logic, for instance \A before B, A overlaps C, C overlaps B" or equivalently \state A ends before state B starts, the gap is covered by state C". As an example we consider the problem of deriving local weather forecasting rules that allow us to conclude from the qualitative behaviour of the air-pressure curve to the wind-strength. Here, the states have been extracted automatically from (multivariate) time series and characterize the trend of the time series locally within the assigned time interval. 1