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53
Direct and Indirect Effects
, 2005
"... The direct effect of one event on another can be defined and measured by holding constant all intermediate variables between the two. Indirect effects present conceptual and practical difficulties (in nonlinear models), because they cannot be isolated by holding certain variables constant. This pape ..."
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Cited by 73 (23 self)
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The direct effect of one event on another can be defined and measured by holding constant all intermediate variables between the two. Indirect effects present conceptual and practical difficulties (in nonlinear models), because they cannot be isolated by holding certain variables constant. This paper presents a new way of defining the effect transmitted through a restricted set of paths, without controlling variables on the remaining paths. This permits the assessment of a more natural type of direct and indirect effects, one that is applicable in both linear and nonlinear models and that has broader policyrelated interpretations. The paper establishes conditions under which such assessments can be estimated consistently from experimental and nonexperimental data, and thus extends pathanalytic techniques to nonlinear and nonparametric models.
Graphs, Causality, And Structural Equation Models
, 1998
"... Structural equation modeling (SEM) has dominated causal analysis in the social and behavioral sciences since the 1960s. Currently, many SEM practitioners are having difficulty articulating the causal content of SEM and are seeking foundational answers. ..."
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Cited by 44 (14 self)
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Structural equation modeling (SEM) has dominated causal analysis in the social and behavioral sciences since the 1960s. Currently, many SEM practitioners are having difficulty articulating the causal content of SEM and are seeking foundational answers.
Appendum to Identification of Conditional Interventional Distributions
, 2007
"... The subject of this paper is the elucidation of effects of actions from causal assumptions represented as a directed graph, and statistical knowledge given as a probability distribution. In particular, we are interested in predicting distributions on postaction outcomes given a set of measurements. ..."
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Cited by 41 (22 self)
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The subject of this paper is the elucidation of effects of actions from causal assumptions represented as a directed graph, and statistical knowledge given as a probability distribution. In particular, we are interested in predicting distributions on postaction outcomes given a set of measurements. We provide a necessary and sufficient graphical condition for the cases where such distributions can be uniquely computed from the available information, as well as an algorithm which performs this computation whenever the condition holds. Furthermore, we use our results to prove completeness of docalculus [Pearl, 1995] for the same identification problem, and show applications to sequential decision making. 1
Identification of joint interventional distributions in recursive semimarkovian causal models
"... This paper is concerned with estimating the effects of actions from causal assumptions, represented concisely as a directed graph, and statistical knowledge, given as a probability distribution. We provide a necessary and sufficient graphical condition for the cases when the causal effect of an arbi ..."
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Cited by 36 (15 self)
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This paper is concerned with estimating the effects of actions from causal assumptions, represented concisely as a directed graph, and statistical knowledge, given as a probability distribution. We provide a necessary and sufficient graphical condition for the cases when the causal effect of an arbitrary set of variables on another arbitrary set can be determined uniquely from the available information, as well as an algorithm which computes the effect whenever this condition holds. Furthermore, we use our results to prove completeness of docalculus [Pearl, 1995], and a version of an identification algorithm in [Tian, 2002] for the same identification problem. Finally, we derive a complete characterization of semiMarkovian models in which all causal effects are identifiable.
Marginal structural models and causal inference in epidemiology
 Epidemiology
, 2000
"... In observational studies with exposures or treatments that vary over time, standard approaches for adjustment of confounding are biased when there exist timedependent confounders that are also affected by previous treatment. This paper introduces marginal structural models, a new class of causal mo ..."
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Cited by 36 (1 self)
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In observational studies with exposures or treatments that vary over time, standard approaches for adjustment of confounding are biased when there exist timedependent confounders that are also affected by previous treatment. This paper introduces marginal structural models, a new class of causal models that allow for improved adjustment of confounding in those situations. The parameters of a marginal structural model can be consistently estimated using a new class of estimators, the inverseprobabilityoftreatment weighted estimators. (Epidemiology 2000;11:550–560)
Causal inference in statistics: An Overview
, 2009
"... This review presents empirical researcherswith recent advances in causal inference, and stresses the paradigmatic shifts that must be undertaken in moving from traditional statistical analysis to causal analysis of multivariate data. Special emphasis is placed on the assumptions that underly all ca ..."
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Cited by 23 (8 self)
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This review presents empirical researcherswith recent advances in causal inference, and stresses the paradigmatic shifts that must be undertaken in moving from traditional statistical analysis to causal analysis of multivariate data. Special emphasis is placed on the assumptions that underly all causal inferences, the languages used in formulating those assumptions, the conditional nature of all causal and counterfactual claims, and the methods that have been developed for the assessment of such claims. These advances are illustrated using a general theory of causation based on the Structural Causal Model (SCM) described in Pearl (2000a), which subsumes and unifies other approaches to causation, and provides a coherent mathematical foundation for the analysis of causes and counterfactuals. In particular, the paper surveys the development of mathematical tools for inferring (from a combination of data and assumptions) answers to three types of causal queries: (1) queries about the effects of potential interventions, (also called “causal effects ” or “policy evaluation”) (2) queries about probabilities of counterfactuals, (including assessment of “regret, ” “attribution” or “causes of effects”) and (3) queries about direct and indirect effects (also known as “mediation”). Finally, the paper defines the formal and conceptual relationships between the structural and potentialoutcome frameworks and presents tools for a symbiotic analysis that uses the strong features of both.
Causal diagrams
, 2008
"... Abstract: From their inception, causal systems models (more commonly known as structuralequations models) have been accompanied by graphical representations or path diagrams that provide compact summaries of qualitative assumptions made by the models. These diagrams can be reinterpreted as probabil ..."
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Cited by 21 (2 self)
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Abstract: From their inception, causal systems models (more commonly known as structuralequations models) have been accompanied by graphical representations or path diagrams that provide compact summaries of qualitative assumptions made by the models. These diagrams can be reinterpreted as probability models, enabling use of graph theory in probabilistic inference, and allowing easy deduction of independence conditions implied by the assumptions. They can also be used as a formal tool for causal inference, such as predicting the effects of external interventions. Given that the diagram is correct, one can see whether the causal effects of interest (target effects, or causal estimands) can be estimated from available data, or what additional observations are needed to validly estimate those effects. One can also see how to represent the effects as familiar standardized effect measures. The present article gives an overview of: (1) components of causal graph theory; (2) probability interpretations of graphical models; and (3) methodologic implications of the causal and probability structures encoded in the graph, such as sources of bias and the data needed for their control.