this paper, a special Metropolis-Hastings type algorithm, Metropolized independent sampling, proposed firstly in Hastings (1970), is studied in full detail. The eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the corresponding Markov chain, as well as a sharp bound for the total variation distance between the n-th updated distribution and the target distribution, are provided. Furthermore, the relationship between this scheme, rejection sampling, and importance sampling are studied with emphasizes on their relative efficiencies. It is shown that Metropolized independent sampling is superior to rejection sampling in two aspects: asymptotic efficiency and ease of computation. Key Words: Coupling, Delta method, Eigen analysis, Importance ratio. 1 1 Introduction

This paper discusses and documents the algorithms of SsfPack 2.2. SsfPack is a suite of C routines for carrying out computations involving the statistical analysis of univariate and multivariate models in state space form. The emphasis is on documenting the link we have made to the Ox computing environment. SsfPack allows for a full range of different state space forms: from a simple time-invariant model to a complicated time-varying model. Functions can be used which put standard models such as ARMA and cubic spline models in state space form. Basic functions are available for ltering, moment smoothing and simulation smoothing. Ready-to-use functions are provided for standard tasks such as likelihood evaluation, forecasting and signal extraction. We show that SsfPack can be easily used for implementing, tting and analysing Gaussian models relevant to many areas of econometrics and statistics. Some Gaussian illustrations are given.

Abstract. Various noninformative prior distributions have been suggested for scale parameters in hierarchical models. We construct a new folded-noncentral-t family of conditionally conjugate priors for hierarchical standard deviation parameters, and then consider noninformative and weakly informative priors in this family. We use an example to illustrate serious problems with the inverse-gamma family of “noninformative ” prior distributions. We suggest instead to use a uniform prior on the hierarchical standard deviation, using the half-t family when the number of groups is small and in other settings where a weakly informative prior is desired. We also illustrate the use of the half-t family for hierarchical modeling of multiple variance parameters such as arise in the analysis of variance.

Abstract—The classical particle filter deals with the estimation of one state process conditioned on a realization of one observation process. We extend it here to the estimation of multiple state processes given realizations of several kinds of observation processes. The new algorithm is used to track with success multiple targets in a bearings-only context, whereas a JPDAF diverges. Making use of the ability of the particle filter to mix different types of observations, we then investigate how to join passive and active measurements for improved tracking. Index Terms—Bayesian estimation, bearings-only tracking, Gibbs sampler, multiple receivers, multiple targets tracking,

When the Gibbs sampler is used to estimate posterior distributions (Gelfand and Smith, 1990), the question of how many iterations are required is central to its implementation. When interest focuses on quantiles of functionals of the posterior distribution, we describe an easily-implemented method for determining the total number of iterations required, and also the number of initial iterations that should be discarded to allow for "burn-in". The method uses only the Gibbs iterates themselves, and does not, for example, require external specification of characteristics of the posterior density. Here the method is described for the situation where one long run is generated, but it can also be easily applied if there are several runs from different starting points. It also applies more generally to Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes other than the Gibbs sampler. It can also be used when several quantiles are to be estimated, when the quantities of interest are probabilities rath...

We present several Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methods that have been widely used in recent years in econometrics and statistics. Among these is the Gibbs sampler, which has been of particular interest to econometricians. Although the paper summarizes some of the relevant theoretical literature, its emphasis is on the presentation and explanation of applications to important models that are studied in econometrics. We include a discussion of some implementation issues, the use of the methods in connection with the EM algorithm, and how the methods can be helpful in model specification questions. Many of the applications of these methods are of particular interest to Bayesians, but we also point out ways in which frequentist statisticians may find the techniques useful.

We develop new methods for conducting a finite sample, likelihood-based analysis of the multinomial probit model. Using a variant of the Gibbs sampler, an algorithm is developed to draw from the exact posterior of the multinomial probit model with correlated errors. This approach avoids direct evaluation of the likelihood and, thus, avoids the problems associated with calculating choice probabilities which affect both the standard likelihood and method of simulated moments approaches. Both simulated and actual consumer panel data are used to fit six-dimensional choice models. We also develop methods for analyzing random coefficient and multiperiod probit models.

This paper is concerned with finite mixture models in which the populations from one observation to the next are selected according to an unobserved Markov process. A new, full Bayesian approach based on the method of Gibbs sampling is developed. Calculations are simplified by data augmentation, achieved by introducing a population index variable into the list of unknown parameters. It is shown that the latent variables, one for each observation, can be simulated from their joint distribution given the data and the remaining parameters. This result serves to accelerate the convergence of the Gibbs sample. Modal estimates are also computed by stochastic versions of the EM algorithm. These provide an alternative to a lull Bayesian approach and to existing methods of locating the maximum likelihood estimate. The ideas are applied in detail to Poisson data, mixtures of rnultivariate normal distributions, and autoregressivc time series.

this paper is organized as follows. In Section 2 we introduce the concept of regeneration and adaptation at regeneration, and provide theoretical support. In Section 3, the splitting techniques required for adaptation are reviewed. Section 4 contains four illustrations of adaptive MCMC. Some of the proofs from Sections 2 and 3 are placed in the Appendix. 2 Regeneration: A Framework for Adaptation

We address the problem of multitarget tracking encountered in many situations in signal or image processing. We consider stochastic dynamic systems detected by observation processes. The difficulty lies on the fact that the estimation of the states requires the assignment of the observations to the multiple targets. We propose an extension of the classical particle filter where the stochastic vector of assignment is estimated by a Gibbs sampler. This algorithm is used to estimate the trajectories of multiple targets from their noisy bearings, thus showing its ability to solve the data association problem. Moreover this algorithm is easily extended to multireceiver observations where the receivers can produce measurements of various nature with different frequencies.