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52
Chain Graph Models and their Causal Interpretations
 B
, 2001
"... Chain graphs are a natural generalization of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and undirected graphs. However, the apparent simplicity of chain graphs belies the subtlety of the conditional independence hypotheses that they represent. There are a number of simple and apparently plausible, but ultim ..."
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Cited by 46 (4 self)
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Chain graphs are a natural generalization of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and undirected graphs. However, the apparent simplicity of chain graphs belies the subtlety of the conditional independence hypotheses that they represent. There are a number of simple and apparently plausible, but ultimately fallacious interpretations of chain graphs that are often invoked, implicitly or explicitly. These interpretations also lead to awed methods for applying background knowledge to model selection. We present a valid interpretation by showing how the distribution corresponding to a chain graph may be generated as the equilibrium distribution of dynamic models with feedback. These dynamic interpretations lead to a simple theory of intervention, extending the theory developed for DAGs. Finally, we contrast chain graph models under this interpretation with simultaneous equation models which have traditionally been used to model feedback in econometrics. Keywords: Causal model; cha...
Graphical Models for Genetic Analyses
 STATISTTICAL SCIENCE
, 2003
"... This paper introduces graphical models as a natural environment in which to formulate and solve problems in genetics and related areas. Particular emphasis is given to the relationships among various local computation algorithms which have been developed within the hitherto mostly separate areas o ..."
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Cited by 28 (0 self)
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This paper introduces graphical models as a natural environment in which to formulate and solve problems in genetics and related areas. Particular emphasis is given to the relationships among various local computation algorithms which have been developed within the hitherto mostly separate areas of graphical models and genetics. The potential of graphical models is explored and illustrated through a number of example applications where the genetic element is substantial or dominating.
Causal inference in statistics: An Overview
, 2009
"... This review presents empirical researcherswith recent advances in causal inference, and stresses the paradigmatic shifts that must be undertaken in moving from traditional statistical analysis to causal analysis of multivariate data. Special emphasis is placed on the assumptions that underly all ca ..."
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Cited by 23 (8 self)
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This review presents empirical researcherswith recent advances in causal inference, and stresses the paradigmatic shifts that must be undertaken in moving from traditional statistical analysis to causal analysis of multivariate data. Special emphasis is placed on the assumptions that underly all causal inferences, the languages used in formulating those assumptions, the conditional nature of all causal and counterfactual claims, and the methods that have been developed for the assessment of such claims. These advances are illustrated using a general theory of causation based on the Structural Causal Model (SCM) described in Pearl (2000a), which subsumes and unifies other approaches to causation, and provides a coherent mathematical foundation for the analysis of causes and counterfactuals. In particular, the paper surveys the development of mathematical tools for inferring (from a combination of data and assumptions) answers to three types of causal queries: (1) queries about the effects of potential interventions, (also called “causal effects ” or “policy evaluation”) (2) queries about probabilities of counterfactuals, (including assessment of “regret, ” “attribution” or “causes of effects”) and (3) queries about direct and indirect effects (also known as “mediation”). Finally, the paper defines the formal and conceptual relationships between the structural and potentialoutcome frameworks and presents tools for a symbiotic analysis that uses the strong features of both.
Causal diagrams
, 2008
"... Abstract: From their inception, causal systems models (more commonly known as structuralequations models) have been accompanied by graphical representations or path diagrams that provide compact summaries of qualitative assumptions made by the models. These diagrams can be reinterpreted as probabil ..."
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Cited by 21 (2 self)
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Abstract: From their inception, causal systems models (more commonly known as structuralequations models) have been accompanied by graphical representations or path diagrams that provide compact summaries of qualitative assumptions made by the models. These diagrams can be reinterpreted as probability models, enabling use of graph theory in probabilistic inference, and allowing easy deduction of independence conditions implied by the assumptions. They can also be used as a formal tool for causal inference, such as predicting the effects of external interventions. Given that the diagram is correct, one can see whether the causal effects of interest (target effects, or causal estimands) can be estimated from available data, or what additional observations are needed to validly estimate those effects. One can also see how to represent the effects as familiar standardized effect measures. The present article gives an overview of: (1) components of causal graph theory; (2) probability interpretations of graphical models; and (3) methodologic implications of the causal and probability structures encoded in the graph, such as sources of bias and the data needed for their control.
Graphical models for causal inference
 ROYAL ECONOMIC SOCIETY SUMMER SCHOOL, OXFORD
, 2005
"... (slides) ..."
Multiple testing and error control in Gaussian graphical model selection
 Statistical Science
"... Abstract. Graphical models provide a framework for exploration of multivariate dependence patterns. The connection between graph and statistical model is made by identifying the vertices of the graph with the observed variables and translating the pattern of edges in the graph into a pattern of cond ..."
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Cited by 12 (2 self)
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Abstract. Graphical models provide a framework for exploration of multivariate dependence patterns. The connection between graph and statistical model is made by identifying the vertices of the graph with the observed variables and translating the pattern of edges in the graph into a pattern of conditional independences that is imposed on the variables ’ joint distribution. Focusing on Gaussian models, we review classical graphical models. For these models the defining conditional independences are equivalent to vanishing of certain (partial) correlation coefficients associated with individual edges that are absent from the graph. Hence, Gaussian graphical model selection can be performed by multiple testing of hypotheses about vanishing (partial) correlation coefficients. We show and exemplify how this approach allows one to perform model selection while controlling error rates for incorrect edge inclusion. Key words and phrases: Acyclic directed graph, Bayesian network, bidirected graph, chain graph, concentration graph, covariance graph, DAG, graphical model, multiple testing, undirected graph. 1.
Statistics and Causal Inference: A Review
, 2003
"... This paper aims at assisting empirical researchers benefit from recent advances in causal inference. The paper stresses the paradigmatic shifts that must be undertaken in moving from traditional statistical analysis to causal analysis of multivariate data. Special emphasis is placed on the assump ..."
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Cited by 11 (6 self)
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This paper aims at assisting empirical researchers benefit from recent advances in causal inference. The paper stresses the paradigmatic shifts that must be undertaken in moving from traditional statistical analysis to causal analysis of multivariate data. Special emphasis is placed on the assumptions that underly all causal inferences, the languages used in formulating those assumptions, and the conditional nature of causal claims inferred from nonexperimental studies. These emphases are illustrated through a brief survey of recent results, including the control of confounding, the assessment of causal effects, the interpretation of counterfactuals, and a symbiosis between counterfactual and graphical methods of analysis.
Bayesian Networks in Reliability
, 2005
"... Over the last decade, Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become a popular tool for modelling many kinds of statistical problems. We have also seen a growing interest for using BNs in the reliability analysis community. In this paper we will discuss the properties of the modelling framework that make BNs ..."
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Cited by 9 (1 self)
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Over the last decade, Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become a popular tool for modelling many kinds of statistical problems. We have also seen a growing interest for using BNs in the reliability analysis community. In this paper we will discuss the properties of the modelling framework that make BNs particularly well suited for reliability applications, and point to ongoing research that is relevant for practitioners in reliability.