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72
A Bayesian method for the induction of probabilistic networks from data
 MACHINE LEARNING
, 1992
"... This paper presents a Bayesian method for constructing probabilistic networks from databases. In particular, we focus on constructing Bayesian belief networks. Potential applications include computerassisted hypothesis testing, automated scientific discovery, and automated construction of probabili ..."
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Cited by 1384 (32 self)
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This paper presents a Bayesian method for constructing probabilistic networks from databases. In particular, we focus on constructing Bayesian belief networks. Potential applications include computerassisted hypothesis testing, automated scientific discovery, and automated construction of probabilistic expert systems. We extend the basic method to handle missing data and hidden (latent) variables. We show how to perform probabilistic inference by averaging over the inferences of multiple belief networks. Results are presented of a preliminary evaluation of an algorithm for constructing a belief network from a database of cases. Finally, we relate the methods in this paper to previous work, and we discuss open problems.
Model selection and accounting for model uncertainty in graphical models using Occam's window
, 1993
"... We consider the problem of model selection and accounting for model uncertainty in highdimensional contingency tables, motivated by expert system applications. The approach most used currently is a stepwise strategy guided by tests based on approximate asymptotic Pvalues leading to the selection o ..."
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Cited by 365 (48 self)
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We consider the problem of model selection and accounting for model uncertainty in highdimensional contingency tables, motivated by expert system applications. The approach most used currently is a stepwise strategy guided by tests based on approximate asymptotic Pvalues leading to the selection of a single model; inference is then conditional on the selected model. The sampling properties of such a strategy are complex, and the failure to take account of model uncertainty leads to underestimation of uncertainty about quantities of interest. In principle, a panacea is provided by the standard Bayesian formalism which averages the posterior distributions of the quantity of interest under each of the models, weighted by their posterior model probabilities. Furthermore, this approach is optimal in the sense of maximising predictive ability. However, this has not been used in practice because computing the posterior model probabilities is hard and the number of models is very large (often greater than 1011). We argue that the standard Bayesian formalism is unsatisfactory and we propose an alternative Bayesian approach that, we contend, takes full account of the true model uncertainty byaveraging overamuch smaller set of models. An efficient search algorithm is developed for nding these models. We consider two classes of graphical models that arise in expert systems: the recursive causal models and the decomposable
Propagation of Probabilities, Means and Variances in Mixed Graphical Association Models
 Journal of the American Statistical Association
, 1992
"... A scheme is presented for modelling and local computation of exact probabilities, means and variances for mixed qualitative and quantitative variables. The models assume that the conditional distribution of the quantitative variables, given the qualitative, is multivariate Gaussian. The computationa ..."
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Cited by 178 (2 self)
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A scheme is presented for modelling and local computation of exact probabilities, means and variances for mixed qualitative and quantitative variables. The models assume that the conditional distribution of the quantitative variables, given the qualitative, is multivariate Gaussian. The computational architecture is set up by forming a tree of belief universes, and the calculations are then performed by local message passing between universes. The asymmetry between the quantitative and qualitative variables sets some additional limitations for the specification and propagation structure. Approximate methods when these are not appropriately fulfilled are sketched. Lauritzen and Spiegelhalter (1988) showed how to exploit the local structure in the specification of a discrete probability model for fast and efficient computation, thereby paving the way for exploiting probability based models as parts of realistic systems for planning and decision support. The technique was subsequently imp...
WordSense Disambiguation Using Decomposable Models
 In Proceedings of the 32nd Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics
, 1994
"... Most probabilistic classifiers used for wordsense disambiguation have either been based on only one contextual feature or have used a model that is simply assumed to characterize the interdependencies among multiple contextual features. In this paper, a different approach to formulating a probabili ..."
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Cited by 155 (19 self)
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Most probabilistic classifiers used for wordsense disambiguation have either been based on only one contextual feature or have used a model that is simply assumed to characterize the interdependencies among multiple contextual features. In this paper, a different approach to formulating a probabilistic model is presented along with a case study of the performance of models produced in this manner for the disambiguafion of the noun interest. We describe a method for formulating probabilistic models that use multiple contextual features for wordsense disambiguafion, without requiring untested assumptions regarding the form of the model. Using this approach, the joint distribution of all variables is described by only the most systematic variable interactions, thereby limiting the number of parameters to be estimated, supporting computational efficiency, and providing an understanding of the data.
A characterization of Markov equivalence classes for acyclic digraphs
, 1995
"... Undirected graphs and acyclic digraphs (ADGs), as well as their mutual extension to chain graphs, are widely used to describe dependencies among variables in multivariate distributions. In particular, the likelihood functions of ADG models admit convenient recursive factorizations that often allow e ..."
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Cited by 123 (7 self)
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Undirected graphs and acyclic digraphs (ADGs), as well as their mutual extension to chain graphs, are widely used to describe dependencies among variables in multivariate distributions. In particular, the likelihood functions of ADG models admit convenient recursive factorizations that often allow explicit maximum likelihood estimates and that are well suited to building Bayesian networks for expert systems. Whereas the undirected graph associated with a dependence model is uniquely determined, there may, however, be many ADGs that determine the same dependence ( = Markov) model. Thus, the family of all ADGs with a given set of vertices is naturally partitioned into Markovequivalence classes, each class being associated with a unique statistical model. Statistical procedures, such as model selection or model averaging, that fail to take into account these equivalence classes, may incur substantial computational or other inefficiencies. Here it is shown that each Markovequivalence class is uniquely determined by a single chain graph, the essential graph, that is itself simultaneously Markov equivalent to all ADGs in the equivalence class. Essential graphs are characterized, a polynomialtime algorithm for their construction is given, and their applications to model selection and other statistical
ANCESTRAL GRAPH MARKOV MODELS
, 2002
"... This paper introduces a class of graphical independence models that is closed under marginalization and conditioning but that contains all DAG independence models. This class of graphs, called maximal ancestral graphs, has two attractive features: there is at most one edge between each pair of verti ..."
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Cited by 121 (23 self)
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This paper introduces a class of graphical independence models that is closed under marginalization and conditioning but that contains all DAG independence models. This class of graphs, called maximal ancestral graphs, has two attractive features: there is at most one edge between each pair of vertices; every missing edge corresponds to an independence relation. These features lead to a simple parameterization of the corresponding set of distributions in the Gaussian case.
Causal Inference from Graphical Models
, 2001
"... Introduction The introduction of Bayesian networks (Pearl 1986b) and associated local computation algorithms (Lauritzen and Spiegelhalter 1988, Shenoy and Shafer 1990, Jensen, Lauritzen and Olesen 1990) has initiated a renewed interest for understanding causal concepts in connection with modelling ..."
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Cited by 80 (6 self)
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Introduction The introduction of Bayesian networks (Pearl 1986b) and associated local computation algorithms (Lauritzen and Spiegelhalter 1988, Shenoy and Shafer 1990, Jensen, Lauritzen and Olesen 1990) has initiated a renewed interest for understanding causal concepts in connection with modelling complex stochastic systems. It has become clear that graphical models, in particular those based upon directed acyclic graphs, have natural causal interpretations and thus form a base for a language in which causal concepts can be discussed and analysed in precise terms. As a consequence there has been an explosion of writings, not primarily within mainstream statistical literature, concerned with the exploitation of this language to clarify and extend causal concepts. Among these we mention in particular books by Spirtes, Glymour and Scheines (1993), Shafer (1996), and Pearl (2000) as well as the collection of papers in Glymour and Cooper (1999). Very briefly, but fundamentally,
Causal inference in statistics: An Overview
, 2009
"... This review presents empirical researcherswith recent advances in causal inference, and stresses the paradigmatic shifts that must be undertaken in moving from traditional statistical analysis to causal analysis of multivariate data. Special emphasis is placed on the assumptions that underly all ca ..."
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Cited by 68 (11 self)
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This review presents empirical researcherswith recent advances in causal inference, and stresses the paradigmatic shifts that must be undertaken in moving from traditional statistical analysis to causal analysis of multivariate data. Special emphasis is placed on the assumptions that underly all causal inferences, the languages used in formulating those assumptions, the conditional nature of all causal and counterfactual claims, and the methods that have been developed for the assessment of such claims. These advances are illustrated using a general theory of causation based on the Structural Causal Model (SCM) described in Pearl (2000a), which subsumes and unifies other approaches to causation, and provides a coherent mathematical foundation for the analysis of causes and counterfactuals. In particular, the paper surveys the development of mathematical tools for inferring (from a combination of data and assumptions) answers to three types of causal queries: (1) queries about the effects of potential interventions, (also called “causal effects ” or “policy evaluation”) (2) queries about probabilities of counterfactuals, (including assessment of “regret, ” “attribution” or “causes of effects”) and (3) queries about direct and indirect effects (also known as “mediation”). Finally, the paper defines the formal and conceptual relationships between the structural and potentialoutcome frameworks and presents tools for a symbiotic analysis that uses the strong features of both.
Chain Graph Models and their Causal Interpretations
 B
, 2001
"... Chain graphs are a natural generalization of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and undirected graphs. However, the apparent simplicity of chain graphs belies the subtlety of the conditional independence hypotheses that they represent. There are a number of simple and apparently plausible, but ultim ..."
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Cited by 68 (7 self)
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Chain graphs are a natural generalization of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and undirected graphs. However, the apparent simplicity of chain graphs belies the subtlety of the conditional independence hypotheses that they represent. There are a number of simple and apparently plausible, but ultimately fallacious interpretations of chain graphs that are often invoked, implicitly or explicitly. These interpretations also lead to awed methods for applying background knowledge to model selection. We present a valid interpretation by showing how the distribution corresponding to a chain graph may be generated as the equilibrium distribution of dynamic models with feedback. These dynamic interpretations lead to a simple theory of intervention, extending the theory developed for DAGs. Finally, we contrast chain graph models under this interpretation with simultaneous equation models which have traditionally been used to model feedback in econometrics. Keywords: Causal model; cha...