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56
Causal Inference from Graphical Models
, 2001
"... Introduction The introduction of Bayesian networks (Pearl 1986b) and associated local computation algorithms (Lauritzen and Spiegelhalter 1988, Shenoy and Shafer 1990, Jensen, Lauritzen and Olesen 1990) has initiated a renewed interest for understanding causal concepts in connection with modelling ..."
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Cited by 56 (4 self)
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Introduction The introduction of Bayesian networks (Pearl 1986b) and associated local computation algorithms (Lauritzen and Spiegelhalter 1988, Shenoy and Shafer 1990, Jensen, Lauritzen and Olesen 1990) has initiated a renewed interest for understanding causal concepts in connection with modelling complex stochastic systems. It has become clear that graphical models, in particular those based upon directed acyclic graphs, have natural causal interpretations and thus form a base for a language in which causal concepts can be discussed and analysed in precise terms. As a consequence there has been an explosion of writings, not primarily within mainstream statistical literature, concerned with the exploitation of this language to clarify and extend causal concepts. Among these we mention in particular books by Spirtes, Glymour and Scheines (1993), Shafer (1996), and Pearl (2000) as well as the collection of papers in Glymour and Cooper (1999). Very briefly, but fundamentally,
Axioms of Causal Relevance
 Artificial Intelligence
, 1996
"... This paper develops axioms and formal semantics for statements of the form "X is causally irrelevant to Y in context Z," which we interpret to mean "Changing X will not affect Y if we hold Z constant." The axiomization of causal irrelevance is contrasted with the axiomization of informational irr ..."
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Cited by 52 (13 self)
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This paper develops axioms and formal semantics for statements of the form "X is causally irrelevant to Y in context Z," which we interpret to mean "Changing X will not affect Y if we hold Z constant." The axiomization of causal irrelevance is contrasted with the axiomization of informational irrelevance, as in "Learning X will not alter our belief in Y , once we know Z." Two versions of causal irrelevance are analyzed, probabilistic and deterministic. We show that, unless stability is assumed, the probabilistic definition yields a very loose structure, that is governed by just two trivial axioms. Under the stability assumption, probabilistic causal irrelevance is isomorphic to path interception in cyclic graphs. Under the deterministic definition, causal irrelevance complies with all of the axioms of path interception in cyclic graphs, with the exception of transitivity. We compare our formalism to that of [Lewis, 1973], and offer a graphical method of proving theorems abou...
Graphs, Causality, And Structural Equation Models
, 1998
"... Structural equation modeling (SEM) has dominated causal analysis in the social and behavioral sciences since the 1960s. Currently, many SEM practitioners are having difficulty articulating the causal content of SEM and are seeking foundational answers. ..."
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Cited by 44 (14 self)
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Structural equation modeling (SEM) has dominated causal analysis in the social and behavioral sciences since the 1960s. Currently, many SEM practitioners are having difficulty articulating the causal content of SEM and are seeking foundational answers.
Prequential Probability: Principles and Properties
, 1997
"... this paper we first illustrate the above considerations for a variety of appealling criteria, and then, in an attempt to understand this behaviour, introduce a new gametheoretic framework for Probability Theory, the `prequential framework', which is particularly suited for the study of such problem ..."
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Cited by 33 (2 self)
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this paper we first illustrate the above considerations for a variety of appealling criteria, and then, in an attempt to understand this behaviour, introduce a new gametheoretic framework for Probability Theory, the `prequential framework', which is particularly suited for the study of such problems.
A New Understanding of Subjective Probability and Its Generalization to Lower and Upper Prevision
, 2002
"... This article introduces a new wa of understanding subjective probabilit and its generalization to lower and upper prevision. ..."
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Cited by 14 (6 self)
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This article introduces a new wa of understanding subjective probabilit and its generalization to lower and upper prevision.
Methods and techniques of complex systems science: An overview
, 2003
"... In this chapter, I review the main methods and techniques of complex systems science. As a ..."
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Cited by 11 (0 self)
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In this chapter, I review the main methods and techniques of complex systems science. As a
The New Challenge: From a Century of Statistics to an Age of Causation
 COMPUTING SCIENCE AND STATISTICS
, 1997
"... Some of the main users of statistical methods  economists, social scientists, and epidemiologists  are discovering that their fields rest not on statistical but on causal foundations. The blurring of these foundations over the years follows from the lack of mathematical notation capable of disti ..."
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Cited by 11 (1 self)
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Some of the main users of statistical methods  economists, social scientists, and epidemiologists  are discovering that their fields rest not on statistical but on causal foundations. The blurring of these foundations over the years follows from the lack of mathematical notation capable of distinguishing causal from equational relationships. By providing formal and natural explication of such relations, graphical methods have the potential to revolutionize how statistics is used in knowledgerich applications. Statisticians, in response, are beginning to realize that causality is not a metaphysical deadend but a meaningful concept with clear mathematical underpinning. The paper surveys these developments and outlines future challenges.