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Causal Diagrams For Empirical Research
"... The primary aim of this paper is to show how graphical models can be used as a mathematical language for integrating statistical and subjectmatter information. In particular, the paper develops a principled, nonparametric framework for causal inference, in which diagrams are queried to determine if ..."
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Cited by 180 (35 self)
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The primary aim of this paper is to show how graphical models can be used as a mathematical language for integrating statistical and subjectmatter information. In particular, the paper develops a principled, nonparametric framework for causal inference, in which diagrams are queried to determine if the assumptions available are sufficient for identifying causal effects from nonexperimental data. If so the diagrams can be queried to produce mathematical expressions for causal effects in terms of observed distributions; otherwise, the diagrams can be queried to suggest additional observations or auxiliary experiments from which the desired inferences can be obtained. Key words: Causal inference, graph models, interventions treatment effect 1 Introduction The tools introduced in this paper are aimed at helping researchers communicate qualitative assumptions about causeeffect relationships, elucidate the ramifications of such assumptions, and derive causal inferences from a combination...
A general identification condition for causal effects
 In Eighteenth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence
"... This paper concerns the assessment of the effects of actions or policy interventions from a combination of: (i) nonexperimental data, and (ii) substantive assumptions. The assumptions are encoded in the form of a directed acyclic graph, also called “causal graph”, in which some variables are presume ..."
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Cited by 57 (18 self)
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This paper concerns the assessment of the effects of actions or policy interventions from a combination of: (i) nonexperimental data, and (ii) substantive assumptions. The assumptions are encoded in the form of a directed acyclic graph, also called “causal graph”, in which some variables are presumed to be unobserved. The paper establishes a necessary and sufficient criterion for the identifiability of the causal effects of a singleton variable on all other variables in the model, and apowerful sufficient criterion for the effects of a singleton variable on any set of variables.
Graphs, Causality, And Structural Equation Models
, 1998
"... Structural equation modeling (SEM) has dominated causal analysis in the social and behavioral sciences since the 1960s. Currently, many SEM practitioners are having difficulty articulating the causal content of SEM and are seeking foundational answers. ..."
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Cited by 44 (14 self)
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Structural equation modeling (SEM) has dominated causal analysis in the social and behavioral sciences since the 1960s. Currently, many SEM practitioners are having difficulty articulating the causal content of SEM and are seeking foundational answers.
Identifiability of pathspecific effects
 In Proceedings of the Nineteenth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence IJCAI05
, 2005
"... Counterfactual quantities representing pathspecific effects arise in cases where we are interested in computing the effect of one variable on another only along certain causal paths in the graph (in other words by excluding a set of edges from consideration). A recent paper [7] details a method by ..."
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Cited by 27 (14 self)
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Counterfactual quantities representing pathspecific effects arise in cases where we are interested in computing the effect of one variable on another only along certain causal paths in the graph (in other words by excluding a set of edges from consideration). A recent paper [7] details a method by which such an exclusion can be specified formally by fixing the value of the parent node of each excluded edge. In this paper we derive simple, graphical conditions for experimental identifiability of pathspecific effects, namely, conditions under which pathspecific effects can be estimated consistently from data obtained from controlled experiments. 1
Learning Causal Networks from Data: A survey and a new algorithm for recovering possibilistic causal networks
, 1997
"... Introduction Reasoning in terms of cause and effect is a strategy that arises in many tasks. For example, diagnosis is usually defined as the task of finding the causes (illnesses) from the observed effects (symptoms). Similarly, prediction can be understood as the description of a future plausible ..."
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Cited by 19 (5 self)
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Introduction Reasoning in terms of cause and effect is a strategy that arises in many tasks. For example, diagnosis is usually defined as the task of finding the causes (illnesses) from the observed effects (symptoms). Similarly, prediction can be understood as the description of a future plausible situation where observed effects will be in accordance with the known causal structure of the phenomenon being studied. Causal models are a summary of the knowledge about a phenomenon expressed in terms of causation. Many areas of the ap # This work has been partially supported by the Spanish Comission Interministerial de Ciencia y Tecnologia Project CICYTTIC96 0878. plied sciences (econometry, biomedics, engineering, etc.) have used such a term to refer to models that yield explanations, allow for prediction and facilitate planning and decision making. Causal reasoning can be viewed as inference guided by a causation theory. That kind of inference can be further specialised into induc
Probabilities of Causation: Bounds and Identification
 Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence
, 2000
"... This paper deals with the problem of estimating the probability of causation, that is, the probability that one event was the real cause of another, in a given scenario. Starting from structuralsemantical definitions of the probabilities of necessary or sufficient causation (or both), we show h ..."
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Cited by 16 (10 self)
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This paper deals with the problem of estimating the probability of causation, that is, the probability that one event was the real cause of another, in a given scenario. Starting from structuralsemantical definitions of the probabilities of necessary or sufficient causation (or both), we show how to bound these quantities from data obtained in experimental and observational studies, under general assumptions concerning the datagenerating process. In particular, we strengthen the results of Pearl (1999) by presenting sharp bounds based on combined experimental and nonexperimental data under no process assumptions, as well as under the mild assumptions of exogeneity (no confounding) and monotonicity (no prevention). These results delineate more precisely the basic assumptions that must be made before statistical measures such as the excessriskratio could be used for assessing attributional quantities such as the probability of causation. 1
2006): “Identifiability in causal bayesian networks: A sound and complete algorithm
 in Proceedings of the TwentyFirst National Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI 2006), Menlo Park, CA
"... This paper addresses the problem of identifying causal effects from nonexperimental data in a causal Bayesian network, i.e., a directed acyclic graph that represents causal relationships. The identifiability question asks whether it is possible to compute the probability of some set of (effect) vari ..."
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Cited by 15 (0 self)
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This paper addresses the problem of identifying causal effects from nonexperimental data in a causal Bayesian network, i.e., a directed acyclic graph that represents causal relationships. The identifiability question asks whether it is possible to compute the probability of some set of (effect) variables given intervention on another set of (intervention) variables, in the presence of nonobservable (i.e., hidden or latent) variables. It is well known that the answer to the question depends on the structure of the causal Bayesian network, the set of observable variables, the set of effect variables, and the set of intervention variables. Our work is based on the work of Tian, Pearl, Huang, and Valtorta (Tian & Pearl 2002a; 2002b; 2003; Huang & Valtorta 2006a) and extends it. We show that the identify algorithm that Tian and Pearl define and prove sound for semiMarkovian models can be transfered to general causal graphs and is not only sound, but also complete. This result effectively solves the identifiability question for causal Bayesian networks that Pearl posed in 1995 (Pearl 1995), by providing a sound and complete algorithm for identifiability.
Knowing and reasoning in
 in College: Gender Related Patterns in Student’s Intellectual Development
, 1992
"... Modelling a decision support system for ..."