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104
The moderator–mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: Conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations
 Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
, 1986
"... In this article, we attempt to distinguish between the properties of moderator and mediator variables at a number of levels. First, we seek to make theorists and researchers aware of the importance of not using the terms moderator and mediator interchangeably by carefully elaborating, both conceptua ..."
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Cited by 2199 (3 self)
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In this article, we attempt to distinguish between the properties of moderator and mediator variables at a number of levels. First, we seek to make theorists and researchers aware of the importance of not using the terms moderator and mediator interchangeably by carefully elaborating, both conceptually and strategically, the many ways in which moderators and mediators differ. We then go beyond this largely pedagogical function and delineate the conceptual and strategic implications of making use of such distinctions with regard to a wide range of phenomena, including control and stress, attitudes, and personality traits. We also provide a specific compendium of analytic procedures appropriate for making the most effective use of the moderator and mediator distinction, both separately and in terms of a broader causal system that includes both moderators and mediators. The purpose of this analysis is to distinguish between the properties of moderator and mediator variables in such a way as to clarify the different ways in which conceptual variables may account for differences in peoples ' behavior. Specifically, we differentiate between two oftenconfused functions of third variables: (a) the moderator function of third variables, which
Direct and Indirect Effects
, 2005
"... The direct effect of one event on another can be defined and measured by holding constant all intermediate variables between the two. Indirect effects present conceptual and practical difficulties (in nonlinear models), because they cannot be isolated by holding certain variables constant. This pape ..."
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Cited by 91 (23 self)
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The direct effect of one event on another can be defined and measured by holding constant all intermediate variables between the two. Indirect effects present conceptual and practical difficulties (in nonlinear models), because they cannot be isolated by holding certain variables constant. This paper presents a new way of defining the effect transmitted through a restricted set of paths, without controlling variables on the remaining paths. This permits the assessment of a more natural type of direct and indirect effects, one that is applicable in both linear and nonlinear models and that has broader policyrelated interpretations. The paper establishes conditions under which such assessments can be estimated consistently from experimental and nonexperimental data, and thus extends pathanalytic techniques to nonlinear and nonparametric models.
On the nature and direction of relationships between constructs and measures
 Psychological Measurement
, 2000
"... Theory development typically focuses on relationships among theoretical constructs, placing little emphasis on relationships between constructs and measures. In most cases, constructs are treated as causes of their measures. However, this causal flow is sometimes reversed, such that measures are vi ..."
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Cited by 51 (0 self)
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Theory development typically focuses on relationships among theoretical constructs, placing little emphasis on relationships between constructs and measures. In most cases, constructs are treated as causes of their measures. However, this causal flow is sometimes reversed, such that measures are viewed as causes of constructs. Procedures have been developed to identify and estimate models that specify constructs as causes or effects of measures. However, these procedures provide little guidance for determining apriori whether constructs should be specified as causes or effects of their measures. Moreover, these procedures address few of the possible causal structures by which constructs and measures may be related. This article develops principles for specifying the direction and structure of relationships between constructs and measures. These principles are illustrated using examples from psychological, sociological, and organizational research. A theory can be divided into two parts: one that specifies relationships between theoretical constructs and another that describes relationships between con
Graphs, Causality, And Structural Equation Models
, 1998
"... Structural equation modeling (SEM) has dominated causal analysis in the social and behavioral sciences since the 1960s. Currently, many SEM practitioners are having difficulty articulating the causal content of SEM and are seeking foundational answers. ..."
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Cited by 51 (14 self)
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Structural equation modeling (SEM) has dominated causal analysis in the social and behavioral sciences since the 1960s. Currently, many SEM practitioners are having difficulty articulating the causal content of SEM and are seeking foundational answers.
Causal inference in statistics: An Overview
, 2009
"... This review presents empirical researcherswith recent advances in causal inference, and stresses the paradigmatic shifts that must be undertaken in moving from traditional statistical analysis to causal analysis of multivariate data. Special emphasis is placed on the assumptions that underly all ca ..."
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Cited by 37 (9 self)
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This review presents empirical researcherswith recent advances in causal inference, and stresses the paradigmatic shifts that must be undertaken in moving from traditional statistical analysis to causal analysis of multivariate data. Special emphasis is placed on the assumptions that underly all causal inferences, the languages used in formulating those assumptions, the conditional nature of all causal and counterfactual claims, and the methods that have been developed for the assessment of such claims. These advances are illustrated using a general theory of causation based on the Structural Causal Model (SCM) described in Pearl (2000a), which subsumes and unifies other approaches to causation, and provides a coherent mathematical foundation for the analysis of causes and counterfactuals. In particular, the paper surveys the development of mathematical tools for inferring (from a combination of data and assumptions) answers to three types of causal queries: (1) queries about the effects of potential interventions, (also called “causal effects ” or “policy evaluation”) (2) queries about probabilities of counterfactuals, (including assessment of “regret, ” “attribution” or “causes of effects”) and (3) queries about direct and indirect effects (also known as “mediation”). Finally, the paper defines the formal and conceptual relationships between the structural and potentialoutcome frameworks and presents tools for a symbiotic analysis that uses the strong features of both.
Application of covariance structure modeling in psychology: cause for concern? Psychol
 Bull
, 1990
"... Methods of covariance structure modeling are frequently applied in psychological research. These methods merge the logic of confirmatory factor analysis, multiple regression, and path analysis within a single data analytic framework. Among the many applications are estimation of disattenuated corre ..."
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Cited by 31 (0 self)
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Methods of covariance structure modeling are frequently applied in psychological research. These methods merge the logic of confirmatory factor analysis, multiple regression, and path analysis within a single data analytic framework. Among the many applications are estimation of disattenuated correlation and regression coefficients, evaluation of multitraitmultimethod matrices, and assessment of hypothesized causal structures. Shortcomings of these methods are commonly acknowledged in the mathematical literature and in textbooks. Nevertheless, serious flaws remain in many published applications. For example, it is rarely noted that the fit of a favored model is identical for a potentially large number of equivalent models. A review of the personality and social psychology literature illustrates the nature of this and other problems in reported applications of covariance structure models. A principal goal of experimentation in psychology is to provide a basis for inferring causation. Among the tools used to achieve this goal are the active manipulation and control of independent variables, random assignment to experimental treatments, and appropriate methods of data analysis. Causal infer
From association to causation via regression
 Indiana: University of Notre Dame
, 1997
"... For nearly a century, investigators in the social sciences have used regression models to deduce causeandeffect relationships from patterns of association. Path models and automated search procedures are more recent developments. In my view, this enterprise has not been successful. The models tend ..."
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Cited by 23 (7 self)
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For nearly a century, investigators in the social sciences have used regression models to deduce causeandeffect relationships from patterns of association. Path models and automated search procedures are more recent developments. In my view, this enterprise has not been successful. The models tend to neglect the difficulties in establishing causal relations, and the mathematical complexities tend to obscure rather than clarify the assumptions on which the analysis is based. Formal statistical inference is, by its nature, conditional. If maintained hypotheses A, B, C,... hold, then H can be tested against the data. However, if A, B, C,... remain in doubt, so must inferences about H. Careful scrutiny of maintained hypotheses should therefore be a critical part of empirical work a principle honored more often in the breach than the observance.
A new identification condition for recursive models with correlated errors
 Struct. Equ. Model
, 2002
"... This article establishes a new criterion for the identification of recursive linear models in which some errors are correlated. We show that identification is ensured as long as error correlation does not exist between a cause and its direct effect; no restrictions are imposed on errors associated w ..."
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Cited by 21 (2 self)
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This article establishes a new criterion for the identification of recursive linear models in which some errors are correlated. We show that identification is ensured as long as error correlation does not exist between a cause and its direct effect; no restrictions are imposed on errors associated with indirect causes. Before structural equation models (SEM) can be estimated and evaluated against data, a researcher must make sure that the parameters of the estimated model are identified, namely, that they can be determined uniquely from the population covariance matrix. The importance of testing identification prior to data analysis is summarized succinctly by Rigdon (1995): To avoid devoting research resources toward a hopeless cause (and to avoid ignoring productive research avenues out of an unfounded fear of underidentification), researchers need a way to quickly evaluate a model's identification status before data are collected. Furthermore, because models are often altered in the course of research (Joreskog, 1993), researchers need a technique that helps them understand the impact of potential structural changes on the identification status of the model, (p. 359) It is well known that, in recursive path models with correlated errors, the identification problem is unsolved. In other words, we are not in possession of a necessary and sufficient criterion for deciding whether the parameters in such a model can be computed from the population covariance matrix of the observed variables. Certain restricted classes of models are nevertheless known to be identifiable, and