Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (under PN9449) and the World Bank for financial assistance. Will Trade Liberalization Harm the Environment? The Case of Indonesia to 2020

East Asia has rapidly become the third centre of gravity for global economic activity. North America is relatively well integrated with East Asia, but Europe is not. This paper explores the extent to which economic growth and trade policy developments over the next decade or so will strengthen European-East Asian economic integration, and what scope there is to facilitate that set of bilateral relationships. Use is made of a modified version of the global CGE model known as GTAP to project the world economy to 2010 under various scenarios including Uruguay Round implementation, a trans-Atlantic free trade agreement, APEC liberalization, and a new WTO multilateral round. The bilateral trade consequences of economic growth and Uruguay Round implementation highlight the fact that as East Asia's relative importance in the world economy keeps growing, so too does its importance to Europe. However, the relative importance of Europe to East Asia is projected to grow very little, although in absolute

ESTIMATING ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF TRADE AGREEMENTS WITH GLOBAL CGE MODELS: A GTAP APPLICATION TO INDONESIA Anna Strutt and Kym Anderson Provided globally optimal environmental and other policies are in place, mostfavoured -nation (MFN) trade liberalizations will always improve global economic welfare. But since the proviso is not met in practice, empirical studies of the environmental and resource depletion effects of such reforms are needed to determine whether trade reform is still worthwhile. This paper provides a methodology for doing that, using a modified version of a multi-country economy-wide model. Attention focuses on environmental effects in just Indonesia, a large newly industrializing country that is rich in natural resources and committed to taking part in major multilateral and regional trade liberalizations over the next two decades. A modified version of the global CGE model known as GTAP is used to project the world economy to 2010 and 2020 without and with thos...

norm during the late 1980s and early 1990s. While these "twin crises" have inspired a number of recent theoretical and empirical contributions to the literature on financial crises in developing economies, much less consideration has been given to analytic case studies of actual country experiences with these twin crises and their aftermath. This paper attempts to fill this gap by studying the specific case of Thailand, which was the first domino to fall, triggering the East Asian financial crisis of 1997-98. Emphasis is laid on the issue of post-crisis foreign bank entry into Thailand.