It is argued that P-values and the tests based upon them give unsatisfactory results, especially in large samples. It is shown that, in regression, when there are many candidate independent variables, standard variable selection procedures can give very misleading results. Also, by selecting a single model, they ignore model uncertainty and so underestimate the uncertainty about quantities of interest. The Bayesian approach to hypothesis testing, model selection and accounting for model uncertainty is presented. Implementing this is straightforward using the simple and accurate BIC approximation, and can be done using the output from standard software. Specific results are presented for most of the types of model commonly used in sociology. It is shown that this approach overcomes the difficulties with P values and standard model selection procedures based on them. It also allows easy comparison of non-nested models, and permits the quantification of the evidence for a null hypothesis...

Following a brief review of the concept of occupational status, we review trends in occupational standing, using data from the 1962 and 1973 Occupational Changes in a Generation Surveys (OCG), the 1986-88 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), and the 1972 to 1990 NORC General Social Surveys (GSS). Next, we examine trends and differentials in the effects of family origins, measured social background, and schooling on occupational standing. Finally, using data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (WLS) and the National Longitudinal Study of Youth (NLSY), we explore relationships among social background, measured mental ability, and occupational status in youth and adulthood. In this paper, we use indexes of the socioeconomic standing of occupations to measure trends and differentials in intergenerational social mobility and in the effects of social background, educational attainment, and measured mental ability on occupational standing. We begin with an overview of the me...

at the 2001 spring meetings of the Research Committee 28 of the International Sociological Association, and in Rostock, Germany at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. I would like to thank Michael Tåhlin for providing me with unpublished tabulations concerning intragenerational occupational mobility in Sweden. I would also like to thank Karl Ulrich Mayer, Patricia McManus, Michael Tåhlin, Martin Seeleib-Kaiser, Yu Xie, and participants at the abovementioned workshops for their Intragenerational mobility has been a central concern in sociology, especially in the latter half of the 20 th century. Most of this analysis has proceeded using measures of social position that are functions of an individual’s occupation. This approach has been based on two primary justifications. First, occupational mobility is a key attribute of labor market structure, and the labor market, along with the educational system, is the principal institution responsible for a country’s structure of inequality. Second, occupation is an income producing asset that provides an approximate measure of “permanent income” and standard of living. Occupation-based models of social mobility, however, have

in the Meritocracy Following a brief review of the concept of occupational status, we review trends in