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72
Dynamic Bayesian Networks: Representation, Inference and Learning
, 2002
"... Modelling sequential data is important in many areas of science and engineering. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and Kalman filter models (KFMs) are popular for this because they are simple and flexible. For example, HMMs have been used for speech recognition and biosequence analysis, and KFMs have bee ..."
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Cited by 563 (3 self)
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Modelling sequential data is important in many areas of science and engineering. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and Kalman filter models (KFMs) are popular for this because they are simple and flexible. For example, HMMs have been used for speech recognition and biosequence analysis, and KFMs have been used for problems ranging from tracking planes and missiles to predicting the economy. However, HMMs
and KFMs are limited in their “expressive power”. Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) generalize HMMs by allowing the state space to be represented in factored form, instead of as a single discrete random variable. DBNs generalize KFMs by allowing arbitrary probability distributions, not just (unimodal) linearGaussian. In this thesis, I will discuss how to represent many different kinds of models as DBNs, how to perform exact and approximate inference in DBNs, and how to learn DBN models from sequential data.
In particular, the main novel technical contributions of this thesis are as follows: a way of representing
Hierarchical HMMs as DBNs, which enables inference to be done in O(T) time instead of O(T 3), where T is the length of the sequence; an exact smoothing algorithm that takes O(log T) space instead of O(T); a simple way of using the junction tree algorithm for online inference in DBNs; new complexity bounds on exact online inference in DBNs; a new deterministic approximate inference algorithm called factored frontier; an analysis of the relationship between the BK algorithm and loopy belief propagation; a way of
applying RaoBlackwellised particle filtering to DBNs in general, and the SLAM (simultaneous localization
and mapping) problem in particular; a way of extending the structural EM algorithm to DBNs; and a variety of different applications of DBNs. However, perhaps the main value of the thesis is its catholic presentation of the field of sequential data modelling.
The Infinite Hidden Markov Model
 Machine Learning
, 2002
"... We show that it is possible to extend hidden Markov models to have a countably infinite number of hidden states. By using the theory of Dirichlet processes we can implicitly integrate out the infinitely many transition parameters, leaving only three hyperparameters which can be learned from data. Th ..."
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Cited by 488 (33 self)
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We show that it is possible to extend hidden Markov models to have a countably infinite number of hidden states. By using the theory of Dirichlet processes we can implicitly integrate out the infinitely many transition parameters, leaving only three hyperparameters which can be learned from data. These three hyperparameters define a hierarchical Dirichlet process capable of capturing a rich set of transition dynamics. The three hyperparameters control the time scale of the dynamics, the sparsity of the underlying statetransition matrix, and the expected number of distinct hidden states in a finite sequence. In this framework it is also natural to allow the alphabet of emitted symbols to be infiniteconsider, for example, symbols being possible words appearing in English text.
Probabilistic independence networks for hidden Markov probability models
, 1996
"... Graphical techniques for modeling the dependencies of random variables have been explored in a variety of different areas including statistics, statistical physics, artificial intelligence, speech recognition, image processing, and genetics. Formalisms for manipulating these models have been develop ..."
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Cited by 167 (12 self)
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Graphical techniques for modeling the dependencies of random variables have been explored in a variety of different areas including statistics, statistical physics, artificial intelligence, speech recognition, image processing, and genetics. Formalisms for manipulating these models have been developed relatively independently in these research communities. In this paper we explore hidden Markov models (HMMs) and related structures within the general framework of probabilistic independence networks (PINs). The paper contains a selfcontained review of the basic principles of PINs. It is shown that the wellknown forwardbackward (FB) and Viterbi algorithms for HMMs are special cases of more general inference algorithms for arbitrary PINs. Furthermore, the existence of inference and estimation algorithms for more general graphical models provides a set of analysis tools for HMM practitioners who wish to explore a richer class of HMM structures. Examples of relatively complex models to handle sensor fusion and coarticulation in speech recognition are introduced and treated within the graphical model framework to illustrate the advantages of the general approach.
MAP estimation via agreement on trees: Messagepassing and linear programming
, 2002
"... We develop and analyze methods for computing provably optimal maximum a posteriori (MAP) configurations for a subclass of Markov random fields defined on graphs with cycles. By decomposing the original distribution into a convex combination of treestructured distributions, we obtain an upper bound ..."
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Cited by 131 (8 self)
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We develop and analyze methods for computing provably optimal maximum a posteriori (MAP) configurations for a subclass of Markov random fields defined on graphs with cycles. By decomposing the original distribution into a convex combination of treestructured distributions, we obtain an upper bound on the optimal value of the original problem (i.e., the log probability of the MAP assignment) in terms of the combined optimal values of the tree problems. We prove that this upper bound is tight if and only if all the tree distributions share an optimal configuration in common. An important implication is that any such shared configuration must also be a MAP configuration for the original distribution. Next we develop two approaches to attempting to obtain tight upper bounds: (a) a treerelaxed linear program (LP), which is derived from the Lagrangian dual of the upper bounds; and (b) a treereweighted maxproduct messagepassing algorithm that is related to but distinct from the maxproduct algorithm. In this way, we establish a connection between a certain LP relaxation of the modefinding problem, and a reweighted form of the maxproduct (minsum) messagepassing algorithm.
Multiresolution markov models for signal and image processing
 Proceedings of the IEEE
, 2002
"... This paper reviews a significant component of the rich field of statistical multiresolution (MR) modeling and processing. These MR methods have found application and permeated the literature of a widely scattered set of disciplines, and one of our principal objectives is to present a single, coheren ..."
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Cited by 121 (17 self)
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This paper reviews a significant component of the rich field of statistical multiresolution (MR) modeling and processing. These MR methods have found application and permeated the literature of a widely scattered set of disciplines, and one of our principal objectives is to present a single, coherent picture of this framework. A second goal is to describe how this topic fits into the even larger field of MR methods and concepts–in particular making ties to topics such as wavelets and multigrid methods. A third is to provide several alternate viewpoints for this body of work, as the methods and concepts we describe intersect with a number of other fields. The principle focus of our presentation is the class of MR Markov processes defined on pyramidally organized trees. The attractiveness of these models stems from both the very efficient algorithms they admit and their expressive power and broad applicability. We show how a variety of methods and models relate to this framework including models for selfsimilar and 1/f processes. We also illustrate how these methods have been used in practice. We discuss the construction of MR models on trees and show how questions that arise in this context make contact with wavelets, state space modeling of time series, system and parameter identification, and hidden
MAP estimation via agreement on (hyper)trees: Messagepassing and linear programming approaches
 IEEE Transactions on Information Theory
, 2002
"... We develop an approach for computing provably exact maximum a posteriori (MAP) configurations for a subclass of problems on graphs with cycles. By decomposing the original problem into a convex combination of treestructured problems, we obtain an upper bound on the optimal value of the original ..."
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Cited by 106 (11 self)
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We develop an approach for computing provably exact maximum a posteriori (MAP) configurations for a subclass of problems on graphs with cycles. By decomposing the original problem into a convex combination of treestructured problems, we obtain an upper bound on the optimal value of the original problem (i.e., the log probability of the MAP assignment) in terms of the combined optimal values of the tree problems. We prove that this upper bound is met with equality if and only if the tree problems share an optimal configuration in common. An important implication is that any such shared configuration must also be a MAP configuration for the original problem. Next we present and analyze two methods for attempting to obtain tight upper bounds: (a) a treereweighted messagepassing algorithm that is related to but distinct from the maxproduct (minsum) algorithm; and (b) a treerelaxed linear program (LP), which is derived from the Lagrangian dual of the upper bounds. Finally, we discuss the conditions that govern when the relaxation is tight, in which case the MAP configuration can be obtained. The analysis described here generalizes naturally to convex combinations of hypertreestructured distributions.
Fast Sampling Of Gaussian Markov Random Fields With Applications
 Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B
, 2000
"... This report has URL http://www.math.ntnu.no/preprint/statistics/2000/S12000.ps ..."
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Cited by 74 (6 self)
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This report has URL http://www.math.ntnu.no/preprint/statistics/2000/S12000.ps
An efficient algorithm for finding the M most probable configurations in probabilistic expert systems
 Statistics and Computing
, 1998
"... A probabilistic expert system provides a graphical representation of a joint probability distribution which enables local computations of probabilities. Dawid (1992) provided a `flowpropagation' algorithm for finding the most probable configuration of the joint distribution in such a system. This p ..."
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Cited by 66 (3 self)
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A probabilistic expert system provides a graphical representation of a joint probability distribution which enables local computations of probabilities. Dawid (1992) provided a `flowpropagation' algorithm for finding the most probable configuration of the joint distribution in such a system. This paper analyses that algorithm in detail, and shows how it can be combined with a clever partitioning scheme to formulate an efficient method for finding the M most probable configurations. The algorithm is a divide and conquer technique, that iteratively identifies the M most probable configurations. The algorithm has been implemented into the experimental shell XBAIES, which is an extension of BAIES (Cowell, 1992). Keywords: Bayesian network, belief revision, most probable explanation, junction tree, maximization, propagation, charge, potential function, conditional independence, flow, evidence, marginalization, divideandconquer. 1 Introduction A probabilistic expert system (PES) funct...