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12
Propensity Score Matching Methods For NonExperimental Causal Studies
, 2002
"... This paper considers causal inference and sample selection bias in nonexperimental settings in which: (i) few units in the nonexperimental comparison group are comparable to the treatment units; and (ii) selecting a subset of comparison units similar to the treatment units is difficult because uni ..."
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Cited by 226 (1 self)
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This paper considers causal inference and sample selection bias in nonexperimental settings in which: (i) few units in the nonexperimental comparison group are comparable to the treatment units; and (ii) selecting a subset of comparison units similar to the treatment units is difficult because units must be compared across a highdimensional set of pretreatment characteristics. We discuss the use of propensity score matching methods, and implement them using data from the NSW experiment. Following Lalonde (1986), we pair the experimental treated units with nonexperimental comparison units from the CPS and PSID, and compare the estimates of the treatment effect obtained using our methods to the benchmark results from the experiment. For both comparison groups, we show that the methods succeed in focusing attention on the small subset of the comparison units comparable to the treated units and, hence, in alleviating the bias due to systematic differences between the treated and comparison units.
An Algorithm for Deciding if a Set of Observed Independencies Has a Causal Explanation
 Proc. of the Eighth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
, 1992
"... In a previous paper [8] we presented an algorithm for extracting causal influences from independence information, where a causal influence was defined as the existence of a directed arc in all minimal causal models consistent with the data. In this paper we address the question of deciding whether t ..."
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Cited by 60 (1 self)
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In a previous paper [8] we presented an algorithm for extracting causal influences from independence information, where a causal influence was defined as the existence of a directed arc in all minimal causal models consistent with the data. In this paper we address the question of deciding whether there exists a causal model that explains ALL the observed dependencies and independencies. Formally, given a list M of conditional independence statements, it is required to decide whether there exists a directed acyclic graph D that is perfectly consistent with M, namely, every statement in M, and no other, is reflected via dseparation in D. We present and analyze an effective algorithm that tests for the existence of such a dag, and produces one, if it exists. Key words: Causal modeling, graphoids, conditional independence. 1 1 Introduction Directed acyclic graphs (dags) have been widely used for modeling statistical data. Starting with the pioneering work of Sewal Wright [...
When Can Association Graphs Admit A Causal Interpretation?
, 1993
"... This paper provides conditions and procedures for deciding if patterns of independencies found in covariance and concentration matrices can be generated by a stepwise recursive process represented by some directed acyclic graph. If such an agreement is found, we know that one or several causal proce ..."
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Cited by 18 (4 self)
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This paper provides conditions and procedures for deciding if patterns of independencies found in covariance and concentration matrices can be generated by a stepwise recursive process represented by some directed acyclic graph. If such an agreement is found, we know that one or several causal processes could be responsible for the observed independencies, and our procedures could then be used to elucidate the graphical structure common to these processes, so as to evaluate their compatibility against substantive knowledge of the domain. If we find that the observed pattern of independencies does not agree with any stepwise recursive process, then there are a number of different possibilities. For instance,  some weak dependencies could have been mistaken for independencies and led to the wrong omission of edges from the covariance or concentration graphs.  some of the observed linear dependencies reflect accidental cancellations or hide actual nonlinear relations, or  the process responsible for the data is nonrecursive, involving aggregated variables, simultenous reciprocal interactions, or mixtures of several causal processes. In order to recognize accidental independencies it would be helpful to conduct several longitudinal studies under slightly varying conditions. In such studies the covariances for the same set of variables is estimated under different conditions and the variations in the conditions would typically affect the numerical values of the parameters. But, if the data were generated by a causal process represented by some directed acyclic graph, then the basic structural properties reflected in the missing edges of that graph should remain unchanged. Under such assumptions, the pattern of independencies that is "implied" by the dag (see Definitio...
Aspects Of Graphical Models Connected With Causality
, 1993
"... This paper demonstrates the use of graphs as a mathematical tool for expressing independenices, and as a formal language for communicating and processing causal information in statistical analysis. We show how complex information about external interventions can be organized and represented graphica ..."
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Cited by 13 (10 self)
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This paper demonstrates the use of graphs as a mathematical tool for expressing independenices, and as a formal language for communicating and processing causal information in statistical analysis. We show how complex information about external interventions can be organized and represented graphically and, conversely, how the graphical representation can be used to facilitate quantitative predictions of the effects of interventions. We first review the Markovian account of causation and show that directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) offer an economical scheme for representing conditional independence assumptions and for deducing and displaying all the logical consequences of such assumptions. We then introduce the manipulative account of causation and show that any DAG defines a simple transformation which tells us how the probability distribution will change as a result of external interventions in the system. Using this transformation it is possible to quantify, from nonexperimental data...
Strategic human resource management: Where do we go from here
 Journal of Management
, 2006
"... The authors identify the key challenges facing strategic human resource management (SHRM) going forward and discuss several new directions in both the scholarship and practice of SHRM. They focus on a clearer articulation of the “black box ” between HR and firm performance, emphasizing the integrati ..."
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Cited by 5 (0 self)
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The authors identify the key challenges facing strategic human resource management (SHRM) going forward and discuss several new directions in both the scholarship and practice of SHRM. They focus on a clearer articulation of the “black box ” between HR and firm performance, emphasizing the integration of strategy implementation as the central mediating variable in this relationship. There are direct implications for the nature of fit and contingencies in SHRM. They also highlight the significance of a differentiated HR architecture not just across firms but also within firms. Keywords: strategy; human resources; black box; implementation; differentiation The field of strategic human resources management (SHRM) has enjoyed a remarkable ascendancy during the past two decades, as both an academic literature and focus of management practice. The parallel growth in both the research literature and interest among practicing managers is a notable departure from the more common experience, where managers are either unaware or simply uninterested in scholarly developments in our field. As the field of HR strategy begins to mature, we believe that it is time to take stock of where it stands as both a field of inquiry and management practice. Although drawing on nearly two decades of †We are grateful to Steve Frenkel, Dave Lepak, and seminar participants at Monash University for comments on an earlier version of this article.
ReEvaluating the Evaluation of Training Programs
"... substantial help in recreating the original data set. We are also grateful to Joshua Angrist, George Cave, David Cutler, Lawrence Katz, Caroline MinterHoxby, and participants at the HarvardMIT labor seminar, the Harvard econometrics and labor lunch seminars, the MIT labor lunch seminar, and a semi ..."
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Cited by 1 (0 self)
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substantial help in recreating the original data set. We are also grateful to Joshua Angrist, George Cave, David Cutler, Lawrence Katz, Caroline MinterHoxby, and participants at the HarvardMIT labor seminar, the Harvard econometrics and labor lunch seminars, the MIT labor lunch seminar, and a seminar at the Manpower Development Research Corporation (MDRC) for many suggestions and comments. All remaining errors are the authors’
Editorial Causality, Unintended Consequences and Deducing Shared Causes
"... Despite warnings against inferring causality from observed correlations or statistical dependence, some articles do. Observed correlation is neither necessary nor sufficient to infer causality as defined by the term’s everyday usage. For example, a deterministic causal process creates pseudorandom n ..."
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Cited by 1 (1 self)
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Despite warnings against inferring causality from observed correlations or statistical dependence, some articles do. Observed correlation is neither necessary nor sufficient to infer causality as defined by the term’s everyday usage. For example, a deterministic causal process creates pseudorandom numbers; yet, we observe no correlation between the numbers. Child height correlates with spelling ability because age causes both. Moreover, order is problematic—we hear train whistles before observing trains, yet trains cause whistles. Scientific methods specifically prohibit inferring causal theories from specific observations (i.e., effects) because, in part, many credible causes are perfectly consistent with available observations. Moreover, actions inferred from effects have more unintended consequences than actions based on sound deductive causal theories because causal theories predict multiple effects. However, an often overlooked but key feature of these theories is that we describe the cause with more variables than the effect. Consequently, inductive processes might appear deductive as the number of effects increases relative to the number of potential causes. For example, in real criminal trials, jurors judge whether sufficient evidence exists to infer guilt. In contrast, determining guilt in criminal mystery novels is deductive because the number of clues (i.e., effects) is large relative to the number of potential suspects (i.e., causes). We can make inferential tasks resemble deductive tasks by increasing the number of effects (i.e., variables) relative to the number of potential causes and seeking a shared cause for all observed effects. Moreover, under some conditions, the method of seeking shared causes might approach deductive reasoning when the number of causes is strictly limited. At least, the resulting number of possible causal theories is far less than the number generated from repeated observations of a single effect (i.e., variable).
Townsend Centre for the International Study of Poverty
, 2007
"... Views expressed in this report are not necessarily those of the Social Exclusion Task Force or any other government department. This report was funded by the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) when the Social Exclusion Unit (the predecessor of the current Social Exclusion Task Fo ..."
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Views expressed in this report are not necessarily those of the Social Exclusion Task Force or any other government department. This report was funded by the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) when the Social Exclusion Unit (the predecessor of the current Social Exclusion Task Force based at the Cabinet Office) was based at DCLG. 1 CONTENTS
A Causal Calculus
"... Given an arbitrary causal graph, some of whose nodes are observable and some unobservable, the problem is to determine whether the causal effect of one variable on another can be computed from the joint distribution over the observables and, if the answer is positive, to derive a formula for the ..."
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Given an arbitrary causal graph, some of whose nodes are observable and some unobservable, the problem is to determine whether the causal effect of one variable on another can be computed from the joint distribution over the observables and, if the answer is positive, to derive a formula for the causal effect. We introduce a calculus which, using a step by step reduction of probabilistic expressions, derives the desired formulas. 1 1 Introduction Networks employing directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) can be used to provide either 1. an economical scheme for representing conditional independence assumptions and joint distribution functions, or 2. a graphical language for representing causal influences. Although the professed motivation for investigating such models lies primarily in the second category, [Wright, 1921, Blalock, 1971, Simon, 1954, Pearl 1988], causal inferences have been treated very cautiously in the statistical literature [Lauritzen & Spiegelhalter 1988, Cox 1992,...