This paper presents a product development process modeling and analysis technique using advanced simulation. The model computes the probability distribution of lead time in a resource-constrained project network where iterations take place among sequential, parallel and overlapped tasks. The model uses the design structure matrix representation to capture the information flows between tasks. In each simulation run, the expected durations of tasks are initially sampled using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method and decrease over time as the model simulates the progress of dynamic stochastic processes. It is assumed that the rework of a task occurs for the following reasons: (1) new information is obtained from overlapped tasks after starting to work with preliminary inputs, (2) inputs change when other tasks are reworked, and (3) outputs fail to meet established criteria. The model can be used for better project planning and control by identifying leverage points for process improvements and evaluating alternative planning and execution strategies. An industrial example is used to illustrate the utility of the model.

Schedule risk is an important category of risk in complex system product development. This paper presents a framework that facilitates understanding schedule risk from a systems perspective. Research findings from literature and a Delphi-type survey of experienced product development managers and system engineers at a major aerospace company are synthesized into a framework characterizing sources of schedule uncertainty. The framework includes not only key uncertainty drivers but also the hypothesized or theorized relationships between them. Since risk is more than just uncertainty, consequences of schedule overruns and of schedule uncertainty itself are also discussed. This research contributes a more comprehensive, systems view to the studies of product development and risk management and to the practice of both in industry. The paper also examines potential paths for future

Regular Paper This paper provides a foundation for modeling the set of activities and their relationships by which systems are engineered, or, more broadly, by which products and services are developed. It provides background, motivations, and formal definitions for process modeling in this specialized environment. We treat the process itself as a kind of system that can be engineered. However, while product systems must be created, the process systems for developing complex products must, to a greater extent, be discovered and induced. Then, they tend to be reused, either formally as standard processes, or informally by the workforce. We distinguish and clarify several important concepts in modeling processes, including: product development versus repetitive business processes, descriptive versus prescriptive processes, activities as actions versus deliverables as interactions, standard versus deployed processes, centralized versus decentralized process modeling, “as is ” versus “to be ” process modeling, and multiple phases in product development. We also present a basically simple yet highly extendable and generalized framework for modeling product development processes. The framework enables building a single model to support a variety of purposes, including project planning (scheduling, budgeting, resource loading, and risk management) and control, and it provides the scaffolding for knowledge management and organizational

The 'benefit pipeline ' approach to the strategic implementation of projects