We are grateful to a large number of RAs who helped us collect the data for this project. We are also grateful to Federico Bugni and Bo Honoré for their help with the econometric issues. We received

A vast literature has sought to explain large cross-country di¤erences in fertility rates. Income, mortality, urbanization, and female labour force participation, among other socioeconomic vari-ables, have been suggested as explanatory factors for the di¤erences. This paper points out that cross-country di¤erences in fertility rates have fallen very rapidly over the past four decades, with most countries converging to a rate just above two children per woman. This absolute convergence took place despite the limited (or absent) absolute convergence in other economic variables. The rapid decline in fertility rates taking place in developing economies stands in sharp contrast with the slow decline experienced earlier by more mature economies. The preferred number of children has also fallen, suggesting a shift to a small-family norm. The convergence to replacement rates will lead to a stable world population, reducing environmental concerns over explosive popula-tion growth. In this paper we explore existing explanations and bring in an additional factor inuencing fertility rates: the population programs started in the 1960s, which, we argue, have accelerated the global decline in fertility rates over the past four decades.

We estimate the long-run impact of cash transfers to poor families on children’s longevity, educational attainment, nutritional status, and income in adulthood. To do so, we collected individual-level administrative records of applicants to the Mothers ’ Pension program—the first government-sponsored welfare program in the US (1911-1935) —and matched them to census, WWII and death records. Male children of accepted applicants lived one year longer than those of rejected mothers. Male children of accepted mothers received one-third more years of schooling, were less likely to be underweight, and had higher income in adulthood than children of rejected mothers.