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332
Bayes Factors
, 1995
"... In a 1935 paper, and in his book Theory of Probability, Jeffreys developed a methodology for quantifying the evidence in favor of a scientific theory. The centerpiece was a number, now called the Bayes factor, which is the posterior odds of the null hypothesis when the prior probability on the null ..."
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Cited by 981 (70 self)
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In a 1935 paper, and in his book Theory of Probability, Jeffreys developed a methodology for quantifying the evidence in favor of a scientific theory. The centerpiece was a number, now called the Bayes factor, which is the posterior odds of the null hypothesis when the prior probability on the null is onehalf. Although there has been much discussion of Bayesian hypothesis testing in the context of criticism of P values, less attention has been given to the Bayes factor as a practical tool of applied statistics. In this paper we review and discuss the uses of Bayes factors in the context of five scientific applications in genetics, sports, ecology, sociology and psychology.
Markov chains for exploring posterior distributions
 Annals of Statistics
, 1994
"... Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at ..."
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Cited by 751 (6 self)
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Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at
Using simulation methods for Bayesian econometric models: Inference, development and communication
 Econometric Review
, 1999
"... This paper surveys the fundamental principles of subjective Bayesian inference in econometrics and the implementation of those principles using posterior simulation methods. The emphasis is on the combination of models and the development of predictive distributions. Moving beyond conditioning on a ..."
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Cited by 199 (15 self)
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This paper surveys the fundamental principles of subjective Bayesian inference in econometrics and the implementation of those principles using posterior simulation methods. The emphasis is on the combination of models and the development of predictive distributions. Moving beyond conditioning on a fixed number of completely specified models, the paper introduces subjective Bayesian tools for formal comparison of these models with as yet incompletely specified models. The paper then shows how posterior simulators can facilitate communication between investigators (for example, econometricians) on the one hand and remote clients (for example, decision makers) on the other, enabling clients to vary the prior distributions and functions of interest employed by investigators. A theme of the paper is the practicality of subjective Bayesian methods. To this end, the paper describes publicly available software for Bayesian inference, model development, and communication and provides illustrations using two simple econometric models. *This paper was originally prepared for the Australasian meetings of the Econometric Society in Melbourne, Australia,
Algebraic Algorithms for Sampling from Conditional Distributions
 Annals of Statistics
, 1995
"... We construct Markov chain algorithms for sampling from discrete exponential families conditional on a sufficient statistic. Examples include generating tables with fixed row and column sums and higher dimensional analogs. The algorithms involve finding bases for associated polynomial ideals and so a ..."
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Cited by 192 (16 self)
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We construct Markov chain algorithms for sampling from discrete exponential families conditional on a sufficient statistic. Examples include generating tables with fixed row and column sums and higher dimensional analogs. The algorithms involve finding bases for associated polynomial ideals and so an excursion into computational algebraic geometry.
An Improved Particle Filter for Nonlinear Problems
, 2004
"... The Kalman filter provides an effective solution to the linearGaussian filtering problem. However, where there is nonlinearity, either in the model specification or the observation process, other methods are required. We consider methods known generically as particle filters, which include the c ..."
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Cited by 156 (8 self)
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The Kalman filter provides an effective solution to the linearGaussian filtering problem. However, where there is nonlinearity, either in the model specification or the observation process, other methods are required. We consider methods known generically as particle filters, which include the condensation algorithm and the Bayesian bootstrap or sampling importance resampling (SIR) filter. These filters
Iterated random functions
 SIAM Review
, 1999
"... Abstract. Iterated random functions are used to draw pictures or simulate large Ising models, among other applications. They offer a method for studying the steady state distribution of a Markov chain, and give useful bounds on rates of convergence in a variety of examples. The present paper surveys ..."
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Cited by 131 (1 self)
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Abstract. Iterated random functions are used to draw pictures or simulate large Ising models, among other applications. They offer a method for studying the steady state distribution of a Markov chain, and give useful bounds on rates of convergence in a variety of examples. The present paper surveys the field and presents some new examples. There is a simple unifying idea: the iterates of random Lipschitz functions converge if the functions are contracting on the average. 1. Introduction. The
Fast Algorithms for Volume Ray Tracing
, 1992
"... We examine various simple algorithms that exploit homogeneity and accumulated opacity for tracing rays through shaded volumes. Most of these methods have error criteria which allow them to trade quality for speed. The time vs. quality tradeoff for these adaptive methods is compared to fixed step mul ..."
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Cited by 107 (0 self)
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We examine various simple algorithms that exploit homogeneity and accumulated opacity for tracing rays through shaded volumes. Most of these methods have error criteria which allow them to trade quality for speed. The time vs. quality tradeoff for these adaptive methods is compared to fixed step multiresolution methods. These methods are also useful for general light transport in volumes. 1 Introduction We are interested in speeding volume ray tracing computations. We concentrate on the one dimensional problem of tracing a single ray, or computing the intensity at a point from a single direction. In addition to being the kernel of a simple volume ray tracer, this computation can be used to generate shadow volumes and as an element in more general light transport problems. Our data structures will be view independent to speed the production of animations of preshaded volumes and interactive viewing. In [11] Levoy introduced two key concepts which we will be expanding on: presence accel...
Numerical Valuation of High Dimensional Multivariate American Securities
, 1994
"... We consider the problem of pricing an American contingent claim whose payoff depends on several sources of uncertainty. Using classical assumptions from the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, the theoretical price can be computed as the maximum over all possible early exercise strategies of the discounted ..."
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Cited by 95 (0 self)
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We consider the problem of pricing an American contingent claim whose payoff depends on several sources of uncertainty. Using classical assumptions from the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, the theoretical price can be computed as the maximum over all possible early exercise strategies of the discounted expected cash flows under the modified riskneutral information process. Several efficient numerical techniques exist for pricing American securities depending on one or few (up to 3) risk sources. They are either latticebased techniques or finite difference approximations of the BlackScholes diffusion equation. However, these methods cannot be used for highdimensional problems, since their memory requirement is exponential in the
Bayes factors and model uncertainty
 DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS, UNIVERSITY OFWASHINGTON
, 1993
"... In a 1935 paper, and in his book Theory of Probability, Jeffreys developed a methodology for quantifying the evidence in favor of a scientific theory. The centerpiece was a number, now called the Bayes factor, which is the posterior odds of the null hypothesis when the prior probability on the null ..."
Abstract

Cited by 89 (6 self)
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In a 1935 paper, and in his book Theory of Probability, Jeffreys developed a methodology for quantifying the evidence in favor of a scientific theory. The centerpiece was a number, now called the Bayes factor, which is the posterior odds of the null hypothesis when the prior probability on the null is onehalf. Although there has been much discussion of Bayesian hypothesis testing in the context of criticism of Pvalues, less attention has been given to the Bayes factor as a practical tool of applied statistics. In this paper we review and discuss the uses of Bayes factors in the context of five scientific applications. The points we emphasize are: from Jeffreys's Bayesian point of view, the purpose of hypothesis testing is to evaluate the evidence in favor of a scientific theory; Bayes factors offer a way of evaluating evidence in favor ofa null hypothesis; Bayes factors provide a way of incorporating external information into the evaluation of evidence about a hypothesis; Bayes factors are very general, and do not require alternative models to be nested; several techniques are available for computing Bayes factors, including asymptotic approximations which are easy to compute using the output from standard packages that maximize likelihoods; in "nonstandard " statistical models that do not satisfy common regularity conditions, it can be technically simpler to calculate Bayes factors than to derive nonBayesian significance