This study examines the random waypoint model widely used in the simulation studies of mobile ad hoc networks. Our findings show that this model fails to provide a steady state in that the average nodal speed consistently decreases over time, and therefore should not be directly used for simulation. We show how unreliable results can be obtained by using this model. In particular, certain ad hoc routing metrics can drop by as much as 40% over the course of a 900-second simulation using the random waypoint model. We give both an intuitive and a formal explanation for this phenomenon. We also propose a simple fix of the problem and discuss a few alternatives. Our modified random waypoint model is able to reach a steady state and simulation results are presented.

This article presents an overview of recent work on ant algorithms, that is, algorithms for discrete optimization that took inspiration from the observation of ant colonies’ foraging behavior, and introduces the ant colony optimization (ACO) metaheuristic. In the first part of the article the basic biological findings on real ants are reviewed and their artificial counterparts as well as the ACO metaheuristic are defined. In the second part of the article a number of applications of ACO algorithms to combinatorial optimization and routing in communications networks are described. We conclude with a discussion of related work and of some of the most important aspects of the ACO metaheuristic.

The eligibility trace is one of the basic mechanisms used in reinforcement learning to handle delayed reward. In this paper we introduce a new kind of eligibility trace, the replacing trace, analyze it theoretically, and show that it results in faster, more reliable learning than the conventional trace. Both kinds of trace assign credit to prior events according to how recently they occurred, but only the conventional trace gives greater credit to repeated events. Our analysis is for conventional and replace-trace versions of the offline TD(1) algorithm applied to undiscounted absorbing Markov chains. First, we show that these methods converge under repeated presentations of the training set to the same predictions as two well known Monte Carlo methods. We then analyze the relative efficiency of the two Monte Carlo methods. We show that the method corresponding to conventional TD is biased, whereas the method corresponding to replace-trace TD is unbiased. In addition, we show that t...

This purpose of this introductory paper is threefold. First, it introduces the Monte Carlo method with emphasis on probabilistic machine learning. Second, it reviews the main building blocks of modern Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation, thereby providing and introduction to the remaining papers of this special issue. Lastly, it discusses new interesting research horizons.

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In treating dynamic systems, sequential Monte Carlo methods use discrete samples to represent a complicated probability distribution and use rejection sampling, importance sampling, and weighted resampling to complete the on-line "filtering" task. In this article we propose a special sequential Monte Carlo method, the mixture Kalman filter, which uses random mixture of normal distributions to represent a target distribution. It is designed for on-line estimation and prediction of conditional and partial conditional dynamic linear models, which are themselves a class of widely used nonlinear system and also serve to approximate many other nonlinear systems. Compared with a few available filtering methods including Monte Carlo ones, the efficiency gain provided by the mixture Kalman filter can be very substantial. Another contribution of this article is the formulation of many nonlinear systems into conditional or partial conditional linear form, to which the mixture Kalman filter can be...

This paper is concerned with the Bayesian estimation of non-linear stochastic differential equations when only discrete observations are available. The estimation is carried out using a tuned MCMC method, in particular a blocked Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, by introducing auxiliary points and using the Euler-Maruyama discretisation scheme. Techniques for computing the likelihood function, the marginal likelihood and diagnostic measures (all based on the MCMC output) are presented. Examples using simulated and real data are presented and discussed in detail.

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A crucial issue in the design of very large disk arrays is the protection of data against catastrophic disk failures. Although today single disks are highly reliable, when a disk array consists of 100 or 1000 disks, the probability that at least one disk will fail within a day or a week is high. In this paper, we address the problem of designing erasure-correcting binary linear codes that protect against the loss of data caused by disk failures in large disk arrays. We describe how such codes can be used to encode data in disk arrays, and give a simple method for data reconstruction. We discuss important reliability and performance constraints of these codes, and show how these constraints relate to properties of the parity check matrices of the codes. In so doing, we transform code design problems into combinatorial problems. Using this combinatorial framework, we present codes and prove they are optimal with respect to various reliability and performance constraints.

We present several Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methods that have been widely used in recent years in econometrics and statistics. Among these is the Gibbs sampler, which has been of particular interest to econometricians. Although the paper summarizes some of the relevant theoretical literature, its emphasis is on the presentation and explanation of applications to important models that are studied in econometrics. We include a discussion of some implementation issues, the use of the methods in connection with the EM algorithm, and how the methods can be helpful in model specification questions. Many of the applications of these methods are of particular interest to Bayesians, but we also point out ways in which frequentist statisticians may find the techniques useful.