We had previously shown that regularization principles lead to approximation schemes which are equivalent to networks with one layer of hidden units, called Regularization Networks. In particular, standard smoothness functionals lead to a subclass of regularization networks, the well known Radial Basis Functions approximation schemes. This paper shows that regularization networks encompass a much broader range of approximation schemes, including many of the popular general additive models and some of the neural networks. In particular, we introduce new classes of smoothness functionals that lead to different classes of basis functions. Additive splines as well as some tensor product splines can be obtained from appropriate classes of smoothness functionals. Furthermore, the same generalization that extends Radial Basis Functions (RBF) to Hyper Basis Functions (HBF) also leads from additive models to ridge approximation models, containing as special cases Breiman's hinge functions, som...

Learning an input-output mapping from a set of examples, of the type that many neural networks have been constructed to perform, can be regarded as synthesizing an approximation of a multi-dimensional function, that is solving the problem of hypersurface reconstruction. From this point of view, this form of learning is closely related to classical approximation techniques, such as generalized splines and regularization theory. This paper considers the problems of an exact representation and, in more detail, of the approximation of linear and nonlinear mappings in terms of simpler functions of fewer variables. Kolmogorov's theorem concerning the representation of functions of several variables in terms of functions of one variable turns out to be almost irrelevant in the context of networks for learning. Wedevelop a theoretical framework for approximation based on regularization techniques that leads to a class of three-layer networks that we call Generalized Radial Basis Functions (GRBF), since they are mathematically related to the well-known Radial Basis Functions, mainly used for strict interpolation tasks. GRBF networks are not only equivalent to generalized splines, but are also closely related to pattern recognition methods suchasParzen windows and potential functions and to several neural network algorithms, suchas Kanerva's associative memory,backpropagation and Kohonen's topology preserving map. They also haveaninteresting interpretation in terms of prototypes that are synthesized and optimally combined during the learning stage. The paper introduces several extensions and applications of the technique and discusses intriguing analogies with neurobiological data.

We had previously shown that regularization principles lead to approximation schemes which are equivalent to networks with one layer of hidden units, called Regularization Networks. In particular we had discussed how standard smoothness functionals lead to a subclass of regularization networks, the well-known Radial Basis Functions approximation schemes. In this paper weshow that regularization networks encompass amuch broader range of approximation schemes, including many of the popular general additivemodels and some of the neural networks. In particular weintroduce new classes of smoothness functionals that lead to different classes of basis functions. Additive splines as well as some tensor product splines can be obtained from appropriate classes of smoothness functionals. Furthermore, the same extension that leads from Radial Basis Functions (RBF) to Hyper Basis Functions (HBF) also leads from additivemodels to ridge approximation models, containing as special cases Breiman's hinge functions and some forms of Projection Pursuit Regression. We propose to use the term GeneralizedRegularization Networks for this broad class of approximation schemes that follow from an extension of regularization. In the probabilistic interpretation of regularization, the different classes of basis functions correspond to different classes of prior probabilities on the approximating function spaces, and therefore to differenttypes of smoothness assumptions. In the final part of the paper, weshow the relation between activation functions of the Gaussian and sigmoidal type by considering the simple case of the kernel G(x)=jxj.

The relationship between the Bayesian approach and the minimum description length approach is established. We sharpen and clarify the general modeling principles MDL and MML, abstracted as the ideal MDL principle and defined from Bayes's rule by means of Kolmogorov complexity. The basic condition under which the ideal principle should be applied is encapsulated as the Fundamental Inequality, which in broad terms states that the principle is valid when the data are random, relative to every contemplated hypothesis and also these hypotheses are random relative to the (universal) prior. Basically, the ideal principle states that the prior probability associated with the hypothesis should be given by the algorithmic universal probability, and the sum of the log universal probability of the model plus the log of the probability of the data given the model should be minimized. If we restrict the model class to the finite sets then application of the ideal principle turns into Kolmogorov's mi...

Abstract not found

The problem of making sequential decisions in unknown probabilistic environments is studied. In cycle t action y t results in perception x_t and reward r_t, where all quantities in general may depend on the complete history. The perception x_t and reward r_t are sampled from the (reactive) environmental probability distribution μ. This very general setting includes...

This paper will describe a voyage of discovery — the discovery of Algorithmic Probability. But before I describe that voyage —a few words about motivation. Motivation in science is roughly of two kinds: In one, the motivation is discovery itself — the joy of “going where no one has gone before ” — the

The probability of observing $x_t$ at time $t$, given past observations $x_1...x_{t-1}$ can be computed with Bayes rule if the true generating distribution $\mu$ of the sequences $x_1x_2x_3...$ is known. If $\mu$ is unknown, but known to belong to a class $M$ one can base ones prediction on the Bayes mix $\xi$ defined as a weighted sum of distributions $ u\in M$. Various convergence results of the mixture posterior $\xi_t$ to the true posterior $\mu_t$ are presented. In particular a new (elementary) derivation of the convergence $\xi_t/\mu_t\to 1$ is provided, which additionally gives the rate of convergence. A general sequence predictor is allowed to choose an action $y_t$ based on $x_1...x_{t-1}$ and receives loss $\ell_{x_t y_t}$ if $x_t$ is the next symbol of the sequence. No assumptions are made on the structure of $\ell$ (apart from being bounded) and $M$. The Bayes-optimal prediction scheme $\Lambda_\xi$ based on mixture $\xi$ and the Bayes-optimal informed prediction scheme $\Lambda_\mu$ are defined and the total loss $L_\xi$ of $\Lambda_\xi$ is bounded in terms of the total loss $L_\mu$ of $\Lambda_\mu$. It is shown that $L_\xi$ is bounded for bounded $L_\mu$ and $L_\xi/L_\mu\to 1$ for $L_\mu\to \infty$. Convergence of the instantaneous losses is also proven.

Abstract. Decision theory formally solves the problem of rational agents in uncertain worlds if the true environmental probability distribution is known. Solomonoff’s theory of universal induction formally solves the problem of sequence prediction for unknown distributions. We unify both theories and give strong arguments that the resulting universal AIξ model behaves optimally in any computable environment. The major drawback of the AIξ model is that it is uncomputable. To overcome this problem, we construct a modified algorithm AIξ tl, which is still superior to any other time t and length l bounded agent. The computation time of AIξ tl is of the order t·2 l. 1

The Bayesian framework is a well-studied and successful framework for inductive reasoning, which includes hypothesis testing and confirmation, parameter estimation, sequence prediction, classification, and regression. But standard statistical guidelines for choosing the model class and prior are not always available or can fail, in particular in complex situations. Solomonoff completed the Bayesian framework by providing a rigorous, unique, formal, and universal choice for the model class and the prior. I discuss in breadth how and in which sense universal (non-i.i.d.) sequence prediction solves various (philosophical) problems of traditional Bayesian sequence prediction. I show that Solomonoff’s model possesses many desirable properties: Strong total and future bounds, and weak instantaneous bounds, and in contrast to most classical continuous prior densities has no zero p(oste)rior problem, i.e. can confirm universal hypotheses, is reparametrization and regrouping invariant, and avoids the old-evidence and updating problem. It even performs well