The Market for Motion Pictures: Rank, Revenue, and Survival Every motion picture is an innovation that competes for theater screens and audiences during its brief life against a changing array of imperfect substitutes. We analyze a large sample of motion pictures as an evolving rank tournament of survival and death. The results of a survival analysis indicate that the failure rate of motion pictures is time-dependent, and that survival time is strongly related to the number of initial bookings. Weekly box office revenue is highly convex in rank and thus is consistent with Rosen's (1981) superstar phenomenon. Our empirical results also have implications for the licensing arrangements between motion picture distributors and exhibitors which have been severely restricted as a result of U.S. court decisions (the Paramount Decrees). JEL Classification: D2, L1, L8 1 Introduction On any given day in every major city there may from 50 to 100 motion pictures playing on theater screens. Each ...

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