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Decidability and Expressiveness for FirstOrder Logics of Probability
 Information and Computation
, 1989
"... We consider decidability and expressiveness issues for two firstorder logics of probability. In one, the probability is on possible worlds, while in the other, it is on the domain. It turns out that in both cases it takes very little to make reasoning about probability highly undecidable. We show t ..."
Abstract

Cited by 40 (6 self)
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We consider decidability and expressiveness issues for two firstorder logics of probability. In one, the probability is on possible worlds, while in the other, it is on the domain. It turns out that in both cases it takes very little to make reasoning about probability highly undecidable. We show that when the probability is on the domain, if the language contains only unary predicates then the validity problem is decidable. However, if the language contains even one binary predicate, the validity problem is \Pi 2 1 complete, as hard as elementary analysis with free predicate and function symbols. With equality in the language, even with no other symbol, the validity problem is at least as hard as that for elementary analysis, \Pi 1 1 hard. Thus, the logic cannot be axiomatized in either case. When we put the probability on the set of possible worlds, the validity problem is \Pi 2 1 complete with as little as one unary predicate in the language, even without equality. With equalit...
Asymptotic Conditional Probabilities: The Unary Case
, 1993
"... Motivated by problems that arise in computing degrees of belief, we consider the problem of computing asymptotic conditional probabilities for firstorder sentences. Given firstorder sentences ' and `, we consider the structures with domain f1; : : : ; Ng that satisfy `, and compute the fraction of ..."
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Cited by 11 (3 self)
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Motivated by problems that arise in computing degrees of belief, we consider the problem of computing asymptotic conditional probabilities for firstorder sentences. Given firstorder sentences ' and `, we consider the structures with domain f1; : : : ; Ng that satisfy `, and compute the fraction of them in which ' is true. We then consider what happens to this fraction as N gets large. This extends the work on 01 laws that considers the limiting probability of firstorder sentences, by considering asymptotic conditional probabilities. As shown by Liogon'kii[31] and Grove, Halpern, and Koller [22], in the general case, asymptotic conditional probabilities do not always exist, and most questions relating to this issue are highly undecidable. These results, however, all depend on the assumption that ` can use a nonunary predicate symbol. Liogon'kii [31] shows that if we condition on formulas ` involving unary predicate symbols only (but no equality or constant symbols), then the asymptotic conditional probability does exist and can be effectively computed. This is the case even if we place no corresponding restrictions on '. We extend this result here to the case where ` involves equality and constants. We show that the complexity of computing the limit depends on various factors, such as the depth of quantifier nesting, or whether the vocabulary is finite or infinite. We completely characterize the complexity of the problem in the different cases, and show related results for the associated approximation problem.
Asymptotic Conditional Probabilities: The Nonunary Case
 J. SYMBOLIC LOGIC
, 1993
"... Motivated by problems that arise in computing degrees of belief, we consider the problem of computing asymptotic conditional probabilities for firstorder sentences. Given firstorder sentences ' and `, we consider the structures with domain f1; : : : ; Ng that satisfy `, and compute the fraction ..."
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Cited by 9 (2 self)
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Motivated by problems that arise in computing degrees of belief, we consider the problem of computing asymptotic conditional probabilities for firstorder sentences. Given firstorder sentences ' and `, we consider the structures with domain f1; : : : ; Ng that satisfy `, and compute the fraction of them in which ' is true. We then consider what happens to this fraction as N gets large. This extends the work on 01 laws that considers the limiting probability of firstorder sentences, by considering asymptotic conditional probabilities. As shown by Liogon'kii [Lio69], if there is a nonunary predicate symbol in the vocabulary, asymptotic conditional probabilities do not always exist. We extend this result to show that asymptotic conditional probabilities do not always exist for any reasonable notion of limit. Liogon'kii also showed that the problem of deciding whether the limit exists is undecidable. We analyze the complexity of three problems with respect to this limit: deciding whether it is welldefined, whether it exists, and whether it lies in some nontrivial interval. Matching upper and lower bounds are given for all three problems, showing them to be highly undecidable.