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3,218
Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo computation and Bayesian model determination
 Biometrika
, 1995
"... Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for Bayesian computation have until recently been restricted to problems where the joint distribution of all variables has a density with respect to some xed standard underlying measure. They have therefore not been available for application to Bayesian model determi ..."
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Cited by 1223 (24 self)
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Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for Bayesian computation have until recently been restricted to problems where the joint distribution of all variables has a density with respect to some xed standard underlying measure. They have therefore not been available for application to Bayesian model determination, where the dimensionality of the parameter vector is typically not xed. This article proposes a new framework for the construction of reversible Markov chain samplers that jump between parameter subspaces of di ering dimensionality, which is exible and entirely constructive. It should therefore have wide applicability in model determination problems. The methodology is illustrated with applications to multiple changepoint analysis in one and two dimensions, and toaBayesian comparison of binomial experiments.
NonUniform Random Variate Generation
, 1986
"... This is a survey of the main methods in nonuniform random variate generation, and highlights recent research on the subject. Classical paradigms such as inversion, rejection, guide tables, and transformations are reviewed. We provide information on the expected time complexity of various algorith ..."
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Cited by 953 (25 self)
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This is a survey of the main methods in nonuniform random variate generation, and highlights recent research on the subject. Classical paradigms such as inversion, rejection, guide tables, and transformations are reviewed. We provide information on the expected time complexity of various algorithms, before addressing modern topics such as indirectly specified distributions, random processes, and Markov chain methods.
On Bayesian analysis of mixtures with an unknown number of components
 INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS PROJECT ON INTERNATIONAL COMPETITION POLICY,&QUOT; COM/DAFFE/CLP/TD(94)42
, 1997
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Bayesian Density Estimation and Inference Using Mixtures
 Journal of the American Statistical Association
, 1994
"... We describe and illustrate Bayesian inference in models for density estimation using mixtures of Dirichlet processes. These models provide natural settings for density estimation, and are exemplified by special cases where data are modelled as a sample from mixtures of normal distributions. Efficien ..."
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Cited by 594 (18 self)
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We describe and illustrate Bayesian inference in models for density estimation using mixtures of Dirichlet processes. These models provide natural settings for density estimation, and are exemplified by special cases where data are modelled as a sample from mixtures of normal distributions. Efficient simulation methods are used to approximate various prior, posterior and predictive distributions. This allows for direct inference on a variety of practical issues, including problems of local versus global smoothing, uncertainty about density estimates, assessment of modality, and the inference on the numbers of components. Also, convergence results are established for a general class of normal mixture models. Keywords: Kernel estimation; Mixtures of Dirichlet processes; Multimodality; Normal mixtures; Posterior sampling; Smoothing parameter estimation * Michael D. Escobar is Assistant Professor, Department of Statistics and Department of Preventive Medicine and Biostatistics, University ...
A learning algorithm for Boltzmann machines
 Cognitive Science
, 1985
"... The computotionol power of massively parallel networks of simple processing elements resides in the communication bandwidth provided by the hardware connections between elements. These connections con allow a significant fraction of the knowledge of the system to be applied to an instance of a probl ..."
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Cited by 568 (15 self)
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The computotionol power of massively parallel networks of simple processing elements resides in the communication bandwidth provided by the hardware connections between elements. These connections con allow a significant fraction of the knowledge of the system to be applied to an instance of a problem in o very short time. One kind of computation for which massively porollel networks appear to be well suited is large constraint satisfaction searches, but to use the connections efficiently two conditions must be met: First, a search technique that is suitable for parallel networks must be found. Second, there must be some way of choosing internal representations which allow the preexisting hardware connections to be used efficiently for encoding the constraints in the domain being searched. We describe a generol parallel search method, based on statistical mechanics, and we show how it leads to a general learning rule for modifying the connection strengths so as to incorporate knowledge obout o task domain in on efficient way. We describe some simple examples in which the learning algorithm creates internal representations thot ore demonstrobly the most efficient way of using the preexisting connectivity structure. 1.
FastSLAM: A Factored Solution to the Simultaneous Localization and Mapping Problem
 In Proceedings of the AAAI National Conference on Artificial Intelligence
, 2002
"... The ability to simultaneously localize a robot and accurately map its surroundings is considered by many to be a key prerequisite of truly autonomous robots. However, few approaches to this problem scale up to handle the very large number of landmarks present in real environments. Kalman filterbase ..."
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Cited by 554 (11 self)
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The ability to simultaneously localize a robot and accurately map its surroundings is considered by many to be a key prerequisite of truly autonomous robots. However, few approaches to this problem scale up to handle the very large number of landmarks present in real environments. Kalman filterbased algorithms, for example, require time quadratic in the number of landmarks to incorporate each sensor observation. This paper presents FastSLAM, an algorithm that recursively estimates the full posterior distribution over robot pose and landmark locations, yet scales logarithmically with the number of landmarks in the map. This algorithm is based on a factorization of the posterior into a product of conditional landmark distributions and a distribution over robot paths. The algorithm has been run successfully on as many as 50,000 landmarks, environments far beyond the reach of previous approaches. Experimental results demonstrate the advantages and limitations of the FastSLAM algorithm on both simulated and realworld data.
Predictive regressions
 Journal of Financial Economics
, 1999
"... When a rate of return is regressed on a lagged stochastic regressor, such as a dividend yield, the regression disturbance is correlated with the regressor's innovation. The OLS estimator's "nitesample properties, derived here, can depart substantially from the standard regression set ..."
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Cited by 401 (13 self)
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When a rate of return is regressed on a lagged stochastic regressor, such as a dividend yield, the regression disturbance is correlated with the regressor's innovation. The OLS estimator's "nitesample properties, derived here, can depart substantially from the standard regression setting. Bayesian posterior distributions for the regression parameters are obtained under speci"cations that di!er with respect to (i) prior beliefs about the autocorrelation of the regressor and (ii) whether the initial observation of the regressor is speci"ed as "xed or stochastic. The posteriors di!er across such speci"cations, and asset allocations in the presence of estimation risk exhibit sensitivity to those
Markov chain monte carlo convergence diagnostics
 JASA
, 1996
"... A critical issue for users of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in applications is how to determine when it is safe to stop sampling and use the samples to estimate characteristics of the distribution of interest. Research into methods of computing theoretical convergence bounds holds promise ..."
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Cited by 338 (6 self)
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A critical issue for users of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in applications is how to determine when it is safe to stop sampling and use the samples to estimate characteristics of the distribution of interest. Research into methods of computing theoretical convergence bounds holds promise for the future but currently has yielded relatively little that is of practical use in applied work. Consequently, most MCMC users address the convergence problem by applying diagnostic tools to the output produced by running their samplers. After giving a brief overview of the area, we provide an expository review of thirteen convergence diagnostics, describing the theoretical basis and practical implementation of each. We then compare their performance in two simple models and conclude that all the methods can fail to detect the sorts of convergence failure they were designed to identify. We thus recommend a combination of strategies aimed at evaluating and accelerating MCMC sampler convergence, including applying diagnostic procedures to a small number of parallel chains, monitoring autocorrelations and crosscorrelations, and modifying parameterizations or sampling algorithms appropriately. We emphasize, however, that it is not possible to say with certainty that a finite sample from an MCMC algorithm is representative of an underlying stationary distribution. 1
WinBUGS  a Bayesian modelling framework: concepts, structure, and extensibility
 Statistics and Computing
, 2000
"... WinBUGS is a fully extensible modular framework for constructing and analysing Bayesian full probability models. Models may be specified either textually via the BUGS language or pictorially using a graphical interface called DoodleBUGS. WinBUGS processes the model specification and constructs an ob ..."
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Cited by 332 (5 self)
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WinBUGS is a fully extensible modular framework for constructing and analysing Bayesian full probability models. Models may be specified either textually via the BUGS language or pictorially using a graphical interface called DoodleBUGS. WinBUGS processes the model specification and constructs an objectoriented representation of the model. The software offers a userinterface, based on dialogue boxes and menu commands, through which the model may then be analysed using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. In this paper we discuss how and why various modern computing concepts, such as objectorientation and runtime linking, feature in the software’s design. We also discuss how the framework may be extended. It is possible to write specific applications that form an apparently seamless interface with WinBUGS for users with specialized requirements. It is also possible to interface with WinBUGS at a lower level by incorporating new object types that may be used by WinBUGS without knowledge of the modules in which they are implemented. Neither of these types of extension require access to, or even recompilation of, the WinBUGS sourcecode.