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Variable selection and Bayesian model averaging in case-control studies
, 1998
"... Covariate and confounder selection in case-control studies is most commonly carried out using either a two-step method or a stepwise variable selection method in logistic regression. Inference is then carried out conditionally on the selected model, but this ignores the model uncertainty implicit in ..."
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Cited by 17 (7 self)
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Covariate and confounder selection in case-control studies is most commonly carried out using either a two-step method or a stepwise variable selection method in logistic regression. Inference is then carried out conditionally on the selected model, but this ignores the model uncertainty implicit in the variable selection process, and so underestimates uncertainty about relative risks. We report on a simulation study designed to be similar to actual case-control studies. This shows that p-values computed after variable selection can greatly overstate the strength of conclusions. For example, for our simulated case-control studies with 1,000 subjects, of variables declared to be "significant" with p-values between.01 and.05, only 49 % actually were risk factors when stepwise variable selection was used. We propose Bayesian model averaging as a formal way of taking account of model uncertainty in case-control studies. This yields an easily interpreted summary, the posterior probability that a variable is a risk factor, and our simulation study indicates this to be reasonably well calibrated in the situations simulated. The methods are applied and compared
Defining and characterising structural uncertainty in decision analytic models. Research Paper 9
, 2006
"... CHE Discussion Papers (DPs) began publication in 1983 as a means of making current research material more widely available to health economists and other potential users. So as to speed up the dissemination process, papers were originally published by CHE and distributed by post to a worldwide reade ..."
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Cited by 1 (0 self)
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CHE Discussion Papers (DPs) began publication in 1983 as a means of making current research material more widely available to health economists and other potential users. So as to speed up the dissemination process, papers were originally published by CHE and distributed by post to a worldwide readership. The new CHE Research Paper series takes over that function and provides access to current research output via web-based publication, although hard copy will continue to be available (but subject to charge). Disclaimer Papers published in the CHE Research Paper (RP) series are intended as a contribution to current research. Work and ideas reported in RPs may not always represent the final position and as such may sometimes need to be treated as work in progress. The material and views expressed in RPs are solely those of the authors and should not be interpreted as representing the collective views of CHE research staff or their research funders. Further copies Copies of this paper are freely available to download from the CHE website www.york.ac.uk/inst/che/pubs. Access to downloaded material is provided on the understanding that it is intended for personal use. Copies of downloaded papers may be distributed to third-parties subject to the proviso that the CHE publication source is properly acknowledged and that such distribution is not subject to any payment. Printed copies are available on request at a charge of £5.00 per copy. Please contact the

