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Bayesian Model Selection in Social Research (with Discussion by Andrew Gelman & Donald B. Rubin, and Robert M. Hauser, and a Rejoinder)
- SOCIOLOGICAL METHODOLOGY 1995, EDITED BY PETER V. MARSDEN, CAMBRIDGE,; MASS.: BLACKWELLS.
, 1995
"... It is argued that P-values and the tests based upon them give unsatisfactory results, especially in large samples. It is shown that, in regression, when there are many candidate independent variables, standard variable selection procedures can give very misleading results. Also, by selecting a singl ..."
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Cited by 177 (16 self)
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It is argued that P-values and the tests based upon them give unsatisfactory results, especially in large samples. It is shown that, in regression, when there are many candidate independent variables, standard variable selection procedures can give very misleading results. Also, by selecting a single model, they ignore model uncertainty and so underestimate the uncertainty about quantities of interest. The Bayesian approach to hypothesis testing, model selection and accounting for model uncertainty is presented. Implementing this is straightforward using the simple and accurate BIC approximation, and can be done using the output from standard software. Specific results are presented for most of the types of model commonly used in sociology. It is shown that this approach overcomes the difficulties with P values and standard model selection procedures based on them. It also allows easy comparison of non-nested models, and permits the quantification of the evidence for a null hypothesis...
Causal Analysis of the Requirements Change Process for a Large System
- in Proceedings of the International Conference on Software Maintenance
, 1997
"... Implementations of requirements change processes in large system projects face many difficulties. In this paper we present a method for analysing requirements change processes to identify implementation weaknesses and their causes. This method relies on prescriptive process models and tracing actual ..."
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Cited by 5 (1 self)
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Implementations of requirements change processes in large system projects face many difficulties. In this paper we present a method for analysing requirements change processes to identify implementation weaknesses and their causes. This method relies on prescriptive process models and tracing actual Change Proposals through the process model. We apply the method in the analysis of the requirements change process for a large real-time system within a Canadian government agency. This allowed us to identify the process implementation problems, and the process, organisational, and people causes of these problems. Based on that experience, we draw general conclusions about the proposed method and its applicability. 1
Narratives, Arguments, and Institutional Processualism: Learning about Implementing Presidential Priorities from Brazil in Action». Paper presented at the 20th Anniversary
- Conference of the Structure and Organization of Government Research Committee of the International Political Science Association, «Smart Practices Toward Innovation in Public Management
, 2004
"... The responsibility of public managers includes designing processes that effectively operationalize policy mandates and contextual goals. The field of public administration has a long tradition of research and commentary on how to fulfill this responsibility. The classical administrative theorists fa ..."
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Cited by 1 (0 self)
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The responsibility of public managers includes designing processes that effectively operationalize policy mandates and contextual goals. The field of public administration has a long tradition of research and commentary on how to fulfill this responsibility. The classical administrative theorists fashioned a doctrine of organizational design that set forth such principles as unity of command and scalar chain. This doctrinal approach was roundly criticized by Herbert Simon (1946) nearly 60 years ago. Simon instead proposed that public managers engage in administrative analysis. This cognitive procedure included describing the functioning of particular organizations in terms of information processing and decision-making. It also included diagnosis, or identifying factors limiting organizational performance, analogous to specifying the binding constraints on the output of a physical system. He encouraged learning from experience by experimenting with structures and procedures intended to relax the constraints. He later admitted that administrative experimentation, in the literal sense, was rarely feasible (Simon 1976). Other scholars, such as James March (1999), have vigorously
Industrial Relations and Critical Realism: IR’s Tacit Contribution
, 2006
"... Editor’s foreword The Warwick Papers in Industrial Relations series publishes the work of members of the Industrial Relations Research Unit and people associated with it. The papers may be work of a topical interest or require presentation outside the normal conventions of a journal article. A forma ..."
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Editor’s foreword The Warwick Papers in Industrial Relations series publishes the work of members of the Industrial Relations Research Unit and people associated with it. The papers may be work of a topical interest or require presentation outside the normal conventions of a journal article. A formal editorial process ensures that standards of quality and objectivity are maintained. There are perhaps two real or imagined, but no less fundamental, critiques of Industrial Relations as an academic going concern. One is that Industrial Relations is a largely atheoretical discipline. The second takes this further to say that it is no discipline at all, or rather the awkward and perhaps illegitimate offspring of labour economics and industrial sociology. In this paper Paul Edwards takes issue with both of these notions. Whilst acknowledging that its focus is often engaged with practical employment issues and concerns, he takes the example of labour productivity to demonstrate that Industrial Relations scholarship can make a strong theoretical contribution even when utilising this approach. He further argues that a more explicit acknowledgement of its institutionalist heritage, and a clearer recognition of the relevance of the critical realist approach, would help confirm Industrial Relations as a field of study in its own right. He constructively concludes with a research agenda to this end.
RECENT THEORIES OF NATIONALISM
"... Barcelona and the Diputació de Barcelona in 1988. The ICPS is attached to the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. These "Working Papers "-thought of as subject for discussion- are the result of research work in progress. Appearance in this series does not preclude further publicatio ..."
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Barcelona and the Diputació de Barcelona in 1988. The ICPS is attached to the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. These "Working Papers "-thought of as subject for discussion- are the result of research work in progress. Appearance in this series does not preclude further publication. This paper must not be reproduced without the author’s licence.
INSTITUTIONAL THEORY 1
"... Although most political sociologists and political scientists nowadays either consider schools of institutionalism (see reviews in Pierson 2000b; Pierson and Skocpol 2002; Amenta 2005). In this chapter we review sociological institutionalism, historical institutionalism, and political institutionali ..."
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Although most political sociologists and political scientists nowadays either consider schools of institutionalism (see reviews in Pierson 2000b; Pierson and Skocpol 2002; Amenta 2005). In this chapter we review sociological institutionalism, historical institutionalism, and political institutionalism. 2 We discuss their similarities and differences, theoretical and methodological insights, research gains, analytical problems, and prospects for the study of politics. To focus our discussion, we consider mainly research regarding the development of public policy, the terrain on which many advances in political sociology and political science have taken place and an occasional battleground for these approaches. The basic similarity in all institutional theoretical claims is that something identified at a higher level is used to explain processes and outcomes at a lower level of analysis (Clemens and Cook 1999; Amenta 2005). Institutionalists tend to avoid both individual-level explanations and explanations situated at the same level of analysis. For these reasons, they are sometimes critici������������������������������������������is
INFERRING CAUSAL COMPLEXITY
"... In The Comparative Method Ragin (1987) has outlined a procedure of Boolean causal reasoning operating on pure coincidence data that has meanwhile become widely known as QCA (Qualitative Comparative Analysis) among social scientists. QCA – also in its recent form as presented in Ragin (2000) – is de ..."
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In The Comparative Method Ragin (1987) has outlined a procedure of Boolean causal reasoning operating on pure coincidence data that has meanwhile become widely known as QCA (Qualitative Comparative Analysis) among social scientists. QCA – also in its recent form as presented in Ragin (2000) – is designed to analyze causal structures featuring one effect and a possibly complex configuration of mutually independent direct causes of that effect. The paper at hand presents a procedure of causal reasoning that operates on the same type of empirical data as QCA and that implements Boolean techniques related to the ones resorted to by QCA, yet, in contrast to QCA, the procedure introduced here successfully identifies causal structures involving both mutually dependent causes, i.e. causal chains, and multiple effects, i.e. epiphenomena. In this sense, the paper at hand generalizes QCA. 1
Department of Organisational and Labour Studies TEACHING COMPARATIVE INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS: CONTINUITY AND CHANGE
"... This paper examines the objectives, content and methods of Comparative Industrial Relations courses in Australian and New Zealand universities. It identifies changes in the approaches to teaching the subject since a 1990 survey. Using 25 course outlines at both undergraduate and postgraduate level f ..."
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This paper examines the objectives, content and methods of Comparative Industrial Relations courses in Australian and New Zealand universities. It identifies changes in the approaches to teaching the subject since a 1990 survey. Using 25 course outlines at both undergraduate and postgraduate level from 15 universities, the paper examines some of the choices lecturers face- selection of countries and themes, the use of theory, and the application of effective and innovative teaching strategies. Some new themes have emerged in the past decade, developing Asian countries are increasingly being included in courses, and the theoretical base is broadening. Overall, however, Comparative Industrial Relations courses are highly diverse in content, reflecting the explicit and implicit objectives of those who teach them. 2
A NATURAL EXPERIMENT OF THE TWO ZEISS COMPANIES
"... Sasakawa Fund provided additional funding. ..."

