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This article proposes a new framework for the construction of reversible Markov chain samplers that jump between parameter subspaces of differing dimensionality, which is flexible and entirely constructive. It should therefore have wide applicability in model determination problems. The methodology is illustrated with applications to multiple change-point analysis in one and two dimensions, and to a Bayesian comparison of binomial experiments. Some key words: Change-point analysis, Image segmentation, Jump diffusion, Markov chain Monte Carlo, Multiple binomial experiments, Multiple shrinkage, Step function, Voronoi tessellation. 1 Introduction

Abstract. This chapter provides a survey of the main methods in non-uniform random variate generation, and highlights recent research on the subject. Classical paradigms such as inversion, rejection, guide tables, and transformations are reviewed. We provide information on the expected time complexity of various algorithms, before addressing modern topics such as indirectly specified distributions, random processes, and Markov chain methods.

A general framework for using Monte Carlo methods in dynamic systems is provided and its wide applications indicated. Under this framework, several currently available techniques are studied and generalized to accommodate more complex features. All of these methods are partial combinations of three ingredients: importance sampling and resampling, rejection sampling, and Markov chain iterations. We deliver a guideline on how they should be used and under what circumstance each method is most suitable. Through the analysis of differences and connections, we consolidate these methods into a generic algorithm by combining desirable features. In addition, we propose a general use of Rao-Blackwellization to improve performances. Examples from econometrics and engineering are presented to demonstrate the importance of Rao-Blackwellization and to compare different Monte Carlo procedures. Keywords: Blind deconvolution; Bootstrap filter; Gibbs sampling; Hidden Markov model; Kalman filter; Markov...

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A critical issue for users of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in applications is how to determine when it is safe to stop sampling and use the samples to estimate characteristics of the distribution of interest. Research into methods of computing theoretical convergence bounds holds promise for the future but currently has yielded relatively little that is of practical use in applied work. Consequently, most MCMC users address the convergence problem by applying diagnostic tools to the output produced by running their samplers. After giving a brief overview of the area, we provide an expository review of thirteen convergence diagnostics, describing the theoretical basis and practical implementation of each. We then compare their performance in two simple models and conclude that all the methods can fail to detect the sorts of convergence failure they were designed to identify. We thus recommend a combination of strategies aimed at evaluating and accelerating MCMC sampler conver...

This purpose of this introductory paper is threefold. First, it introduces the Monte Carlo method with emphasis on probabilistic machine learning. Second, it reviews the main building blocks of modern Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation, thereby providing and introduction to the remaining papers of this special issue. Lastly, it discusses new interesting research horizons.

We apply recent results in Markov chain theory to Hastings and Metropolis algorithms with either independent or symmetric candidate distributions, and provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the algorithms to converge at a geometric rate to a prescribed distribution ß. In the independence case (in IR k ) these indicate that geometric convergence essentially occurs if and only if the candidate density is bounded below by a multiple of ß; in the symmetric case (in IR only) we show geometric convergence essentially occurs if and only if ß has geometric tails. We also evaluate recently developed computable bounds on the rates of convergence in this context: examples show that these theoretical bounds can be inherently extremely conservative, although when the chain is stochastically monotone the bounds may well be effective.