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B.M.: Making density forecasting models statistically consistent (0)

by M Carney, P Cunningham, Lucey
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Evaluating density forecast models

by Michael Carney, Pádraig Cunningham , 2006
"... Abstract. Density forecasting in regression is gaining popularity as real world applications demand an estimate of the level of uncertainty in predictions. In this paper we describe the two goals of density forecasting 1 sharpness and calibration. We review the evaluation methods available to a dens ..."
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Abstract. Density forecasting in regression is gaining popularity as real world applications demand an estimate of the level of uncertainty in predictions. In this paper we describe the two goals of density forecasting 1 sharpness and calibration. We review the evaluation methods available to a density forecaster to assess each of these goals and we introduce a new evaluation method that allows modelers to compare and evaluate their models across both of these goals simultaneously and identify the optimal model. 1
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...ensity at the observation and does not take the calibration of the forecast into consideration. These problems manifest themselves in erroneous probability estimates. For examples of these see [6] or =-=[7]-=-. 3 The exceptions to this are, for example, the indirect density forecasting techniques such as ensemble methods.4 0.4 (a) Sample Predicted Distribution 10 (b) NLL Values for Sample Distribution 0.3...

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