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The earth is round (p < .05
 American Psychologist
, 1994
"... After 4 decades of severe criticism, the ritual of null hypothesis significance testing—mechanical dichotomous decisions around a sacred.05 criterion—still persists. This article reviews the problems with this practice, including its nearuniversal misinterpretation ofp as the probability that Ho is ..."
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After 4 decades of severe criticism, the ritual of null hypothesis significance testing—mechanical dichotomous decisions around a sacred.05 criterion—still persists. This article reviews the problems with this practice, including its nearuniversal misinterpretation ofp as the probability that Ho is false, the misinterpretation that its complement is the probability of successful replication, and the mistaken assumption that if one rejects Ho one thereby affirms the theory that led to the test. Exploratory data analysis and the use of graphic methods, a steady improvement in and a movement toward standardization in measurement, an emphasis on estimating effect sizes using confidence intervals, and the informed use of available statistical methods is suggested. For generalization, psychologists must finally rely, as has been done in all the older sciences,
A Challenge for Statistical Instructors: Teaching Bayesian Inference Without Discarding the "Official" Significance Tests
"... The use of frequentist Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) is so an integral part of scientists' behavior that its uses cannot be discontinued by flinging it out of the window. Faced with this situation, our teaching strategy involves a smooth transition towards the Bayesian paradigm. Its ..."
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The use of frequentist Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) is so an integral part of scientists' behavior that its uses cannot be discontinued by flinging it out of the window. Faced with this situation, our teaching strategy involves a smooth transition towards the Bayesian paradigm. Its general outlines are as follows. (1) To present natural Bayesian interpretations of NHST outcomes to draw attention to their shortcomings. (2) To create as a result of this the need for a change of emphasis in the presentation and interpretation of results.
Open Access
"... On universal common ancestry, sequence similarity, and phylogenetic structure: the sins of Pvalues and the virtues of Bayesian evidence ..."
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On universal common ancestry, sequence similarity, and phylogenetic structure: the sins of Pvalues and the virtues of Bayesian evidence
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"... About some misconceptions and the discontent with statistical tests in psychology 1 ..."
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About some misconceptions and the discontent with statistical tests in psychology 1
Testing
"... The current, nearly omnipresent, approach to hypothesis testing in all of the social sciences is a synthesis of the Fisher test of significance and the NeymanPearson hypothesis test. In this “modern ” procedure, two hypotheses are posited: a null or restricted hypothesis (H0) which competes with an ..."
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The current, nearly omnipresent, approach to hypothesis testing in all of the social sciences is a synthesis of the Fisher test of significance and the NeymanPearson hypothesis test. In this “modern ” procedure, two hypotheses are posited: a null or restricted hypothesis (H0) which competes with an alternative or research hypothesis (H1) describing two complementary notions about some phenomenon. The research hypothesis is the probability model which describes the author’s belief about some underlying aspect of the data, and operationalizes this belief through a parameter: θ. In the simplest case, described in every introductory text, a null hypothesis asserts that θ = 0 and a complementary research hypothesis asserts that θ = 0. More generally, the test evaluates a parameter vector: θ = {θ1, θ2,...,θm}, and the null hypothesis places restrictions on some subset (ℓ ≤ m) of the theta vector such as: θi = k1θj + k2 with constants k1 and k2. A test statistic (T), some function of θ and the data, is calculated and compared with its known distribution under the assumption that H0 is true. Commonly used test statistics are sample means ( ¯ X), chisquare statistics (χ2), and tstatistics in linear (OLS) regression analysis. The test procedure assigns one of two decisions (D0, D1) to all possible values in