Declines of Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) populations in the Aleutian Islands and Gulf of Alaska could be a consequence of physical oceanographic changes associated with the 1976--77 climate regime shift. Changes in ocean climate are hypothesized to have affected the quantity, quality, and accessibility of prey, which in turn may have affected the rates of birth and death of sea lions. Recent studies of the spatial and temporal variations in the ocean climate system of the North Pacific support this hypothesis. Ocean climate changes appear to have created adaptive opportunities for various species that are preyed upon by Steller sea lions at mid-trophic levels. The east--west asymmetry of the oceanic response to climate forcing after 1976-- 77 is consistent with both the temporal aspect (populations decreased after the late 1970s) and the spatial aspect of the decline (western, but not eastern, sea lion populations decreased). These broad-scale climate variations appear to be modulated by regionally sensitive biogeographic structures along the Aleutian Islands and Gulf of Alaska, which include a transition point from coastal to open-ocean conditions at Samalga Pass westward along the Aleutian Islands. These transition points delineate distinct clusterings of different combinations of prey species, which are in turn correlated with differential population sizes and trajectories of Steller sea lions. Archaeological records spanning 4000 yr further indicate that sea lion populations have experienced major shifts in abundance in the past. Shifts in ocean climate are the most parsimonious underlying explanation for the broad suite of ecosystem changes that have been observed in the North Pacific Ocean in recent decades.

This document contains an Environmental Assessment and a Regulatory Impact Review that analyze the potential impacts of an FMP amendment and regulations to allocate any future Aleutian Islands pollock specifications to the Aleut Corporation, as required by Section 803 of the 2004 Consolidated Appropriations Act (PL108-199). This document also contains a draft certification that this action will not have a significant impact on a substantial number of small entities. The analyses in this document address the requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act, Executive Order 12866, and the Regulatory Flexibility Act.

Abstract: This Environmental Assessment/Regulatory Impact Review/Initial Regulatory Flexibility Analysis (EA/RIR/IRFA) provides an analysis of a proposed regulatory amendment. Approval of the regulatory amendment would impose a two-week ban on trawl fishing in the specified area near Unimak Pass in the eastern Bering Sea. This short-term closure would be in effect between March 15 and March 31 in the years 2003- 2006. The changes in fishing regulations are needed to permit NMFS to conduct unimpeded experiments on the effects of commercial trawling on local abundance of Pacific cod, as part of a comprehensive research program on sea lion/fishery interactions. The EA/RIR/IRFA provides an analysis of the expected impacts of proposed regulations on groundfish target species stock status, higher and lower trophic level species, and the physical and socioeconomic environment. (This page intentionally left blank) ii TABLE OF CONTENTS

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Dear Reader, In June 2009, the Council adopted a suite of elements and options for developing a new Central Gulf of Alaska rockfish program to replace the existing pilot program, which is set to expire after the 2011 fishing season. Since June, staff has been preparing a preliminary EA/RIR/IRFA for the proposed development of the new rockfish program. Given the uncertainty of Council authority for some alternatives and the pending opinion of NOAA GC concerning that authority, staff has focused its efforts on portions of the analysis less likely to be affected by that opinion. These include the development of alternatives from the elements and options to frame the EA/RIR/IRFA analysis and preparation of background sections of the analysis. The document includes a detailed description of the alternatives, a detailed description of the existing conditions in the rockfish fishery during two periods: the period leading up to the rockfish pilot program and the period since implementation of the rockfish pilot program. Also included in the document are preliminary drafts of the EA and the IRFA. In addition to the information included in this mailing, staff is preparing a separate paper with information on few specific decision points that the Council could consider at this meeting. That paper will be included in briefing books for the October meeting. The paper will include descriptions of the proposed

harvesters in the crab fisheries. Recognizing that rationalizing the BSAI crab fisheries could provide opportunities for fishermen to alter their crab fishing patterns and take greater advantage of other fisheries, the Council included GOA groundfish sideboard limits for vessels and licenses that had Bering

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