Recent work in supervised learning has shown that a surprisingly simple Bayesian classifier with strong assumptions of independence among features, called naive Bayes, is competitive with state-of-the-art classifiers such as C4.5. This fact raises the question of whether a classifier with less restrictive assumptions can perform even better. In this paper we evaluate approaches for inducing classifiers from data, based on the theory of learning Bayesian networks. These networks are factored representations of probability distributions that generalize the naive Bayesian classifier and explicitly represent statements about independence. Among these approaches we single out a method we call Tree Augmented Naive Bayes (TAN), which outperforms naive Bayes, yet at the same time maintains the computational simplicity (no search involved) and robustness that characterize naive Bayes. We experimentally tested these approaches, using problems from the University of California at Irvine repository, and compared them to C4.5, naive Bayes, and wrapper methods for feature selection.

This literature review discusses different methods under the general rubric of learning Bayesian networks from data, and includes some overlapping work on more general probabilistic networks. Connections are drawn between the statistical, neural network, and uncertainty communities, and between the different methodological communities, such as Bayesian, description length, and classical statistics. Basic concepts for learning and Bayesian networks are introduced and methods are then reviewed. Methods are discussed for learning parameters of a probabilistic network, for learning the structure, and for learning hidden variables. The presentation avoids formal definitions and theorems, as these are plentiful in the literature, and instead illustrates key concepts with simplified examples. Keywords--- Bayesian networks, graphical models, hidden variables, learning, learning structure, probabilistic networks, knowledge discovery. I. Introduction Probabilistic networks or probabilistic gra...

We present a framework for characterizing Bayesian classification methods. This framework can be thought of as a spectrum of allowable dependence in a given probabilistic model with the Naive Bayes algorithm at the most restrictive end and the learning of full Bayesian networks at the most general extreme. While much work has been carried out along the two ends of this spectrum, there has been surprising little done along the middle. We analyze the assumptions made as one moves along this spectrum and show the tradeoffs between model accuracy and learning speed which become critical to consider in a variety of data mining domains. We then present a general induction algorithm that allows for traversal of this spectrum depending on the available computational power for carrying out induction and show its application in a number of domains with different properties. Introduction Recently, work in Bayesian methods for classification has grown enormously (Cooper & Herskovits 1992) (Buntin...

This paper describes the mixtures-of-trees model, a probabilistic model for discrete multidimensional domains. Mixtures-of-trees generalize the probabilistic trees of Chow and Liu [6] in a different and complementary direction to that of Bayesian networks. We present efficient algorithms for learning mixtures-of-trees models in maximum likelihood and Bayesian frameworks. We also discuss additional efficiencies that can be obtained when data are “sparse, ” and we present data structures and algorithms that exploit such sparseness. Experimental results demonstrate the performance of the model for both density estimation and classification. We also discuss the sense in which tree-based classifiers perform an implicit form of feature selection, and demonstrate a resulting insensitivity to irrelevant attributes.

Recent work in supervised learning has shown that a surprisingly simple Bayesian classifier with strong assumptions of independence among features, called naive Bayes, is competitive with state of the art classifiers such as C4.5. This fact raises the question of whether a classifier with less restrictive assumptions can perform even better. In this paper we examine and evaluate approaches for inducing classifiers from data, based on recent results in the theory of learning Bayesian networks. Bayesian networks are factored representations of probability distributions that generalize the naive Bayes classifier and explicitly represent statements about independence. Among these approacheswe single out a method we call Tree Augmented Naive Bayes (TAN), which outperforms naive Bayes, yet at the same time maintains the computational simplicity (no search involved) and robustness which are characteristic of naive Bayes. We experimentally tested these approaches using benchmark problems from...

Estimation of Distribution Algorithms (EDA) constitute an example of stochastics heuristics based on populations of individuals every of which encode the possible solutions to the optimization problem. These populations of individuals evolve in succesive generations as the search progresses -- organized in the same way as most evolutionary computation heuristics. In opposition to most evolutionary computation paradigms which consider the crossing and mutation operators as essential tools to generate new populations, EDA replaces those operators by the estimation and simulation of the joint probability distribution of the selected individuals. In this work, after making a review of the different approaches based on EDA for problems of combinatorial optimization as well as for problems of optimization in continuous domains, we propose new approaches based on the theory of probabilistic graphical models to solve problems in both domains. More precisely, we propose to adapt algorit...

The naive Bayesian classifier provides a simple and e#ective approach to classifier learning, but its attribute independence assumption is often violated in the real world. A number of approaches have sought to alleviate this problem. A Bayesian tree learning algorithm builds a decision tree, and generates a local naive Bayesian classifier at each leaf. The tests leading to a leaf can alleviate attribute inter-dependencies for the local naive Bayesian classifier. However, Bayesian tree learning still su#ers from the small disjunct problem of tree learning. While inferred Bayesian trees demonstrate low average prediction error rates, there is reason to believe that error rates will be higher for those leaves with few training examples. This paper proposes the application of lazy learning techniques to Bayesian tree induction and presents the resulting lazy Bayesian rule learning algorithm, called Lbr. This algorithm can be justified by a variant of Bayes theorem which supports a weaker conditional attribute independence assumption than is required by naive Bayes. For each test example, it builds a most appropriate rule with a local naive Bayesian classifier as its consequent. It is demonstrated that the computational requirements of Lbr are reasonable in a wide cross-section of natural domains. Experiments with these domains show that, on average, this new algorithm obtains lower error rates significantly more often than the reverse in comparison to a naive Bayesian classifier, C4.5, a Bayesian tree learning algorithm, a constructive Bayesian classifier that eliminates attributes and constructs new attributes using Cartesian products of existing nominal attributes, and a lazy decision tree learning algorithm. It also outperforms, although the result is not statisticall...

This publication can be retrieved by anonymous ftp to publications.ai.mit.edu. This paper introduces a probability model, the mixture of trees that can account for sparse, dynamically changing dependence relationships. We present a family of efficient algorithms based on the EM and the Minimum Spanning Tree algorithms that learn mixtures of trees in the ML framework. The method can be extended to take into account priors and, for a wide class of priors that includes the Dirichlet and the MDL priors, it preserves its computational efficiency. Experimental results demonstrate the excellent performance of the new model both in density estimation and in classification. Finally, we show that a single tree classifier acts like an implicit feature selector, thus making the classification performance insensitive to irrelevant attributes.

Chain graphs combine directed and undirected graphs and their underlying mathematics combines properties of the two. This paper gives a simplified definition of chain graphs based on a hierarchical combination of Bayesian (directed) and Markov (undirected) networks. Examples of a chain graph are multivariate feed-forward networks, clustering with conditional interaction between variables, and forms of Bayes classifiers. Chain graphs are then extended using the notation of plates so that samples and data analysis problems can be represented in a graphical model as well. Implications for learning are discussed in the conclusion. 1 Introduction Probabilistic networks are a notational device that allow one to abstract forms of probabilistic reasoning without getting lost in the mathematical detail of the underlying equations. They offer a framework whereby many forms of probabilistic reasoning can be combined and performed on probabilistic models without careful hand programming. Efforts ...

Bayesian networks are a formalism for probabilistic reasonning that is more and more used for classification task in data-mining. In some situations, the network structure is given by an expert, otherwise, retrieving it from a database is a NP-hard problem, notably because of the search space complexity. In the last decade, lot of methods have been introduced to learn the network structure automatically, by simplifying the search space (augmented naive bayes, K2) or by using an heuristic in this search space (greedy search). Most of these methods deal with completely observed data, but some others can deal with incomplete data (SEM, MWST-EM). The Bayes Net Toolbox introduced by [Murphy, 2001a] for Matlab allows us using Bayesian Networks or learning them. But this toolbox is not ’state of the art ’ if we want to perform a Structural Learning, that’s why we propose this package.