This paper surveys locally weighted learning, a form of lazy learning and memorybased learning, and focuses on locally weighted linear regression. The survey discusses distance functions, smoothing parameters, weighting functions, local model structures, regularization of the estimates and bias, assessing predictions, handling noisy data and outliers, improving the quality of predictions by tuning t parameters, interference between old and new data, implementing locally weighted learning e ciently, and applications of locally weighted learning. A companion paper surveys how locally weighted learning can be used in robot learning and control.

DNA microarrays are a new and promising biotechnology whichallows the monitoring of expression levels in cells for thousands of genes simultaneously. The present paper describes statistical methods for the identification of differentially expressed genes in replicated cDNA microarray experiments. Although it is not the main focus of the paper, new methods for the important pre-processing steps of image analysis and normalization are proposed. Given suitably normalized data, the biological question of differential expression is restated as a problem in multiple hypothesis testing: the simultaneous test for each gene of the null hypothesis of no association between the expression levels and responses or covariates of interest. Di erentially expressed genes are identified based on adjusted p-values for a multiple testing procedure which strongly controls the family-wise Type I error rate and takes into account the dependence structure between the gene expression levels. No specific parametric form is assumed for the distribution of the test statistics and a permutation procedure is used to estimate adjusted p-values. Several data displays are suggested for the visual identification of differentially expressed genes and of important features of these genes. The above methods are applied to microarray data from a study of gene expression in the livers of mice with very low HDL cholesterol levels. The genes identified using data from multiple slides are compared to those identified by recently published single-slide methods.

A critical issue for users of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in applications is how to determine when it is safe to stop sampling and use the samples to estimate characteristics of the distribution of interest. Research into methods of computing theoretical convergence bounds holds promise for the future but currently has yielded relatively little that is of practical use in applied work. Consequently, most MCMC users address the convergence problem by applying diagnostic tools to the output produced by running their samplers. After giving a brief overview of the area, we provide an expository review of thirteen convergence diagnostics, describing the theoretical basis and practical implementation of each. We then compare their performance in two simple models and conclude that all the methods can fail to detect the sorts of convergence failure they were designed to identify. We thus recommend a combination of strategies aimed at evaluating and accelerating MCMC sampler conver...

... This article illustrates the potential learning capabilities of purely local learning and offers an interesting and powerful approach to learning with receptive fields.

While methods for comparing two learning algorithms on a single data set have been scrutinized for quite some time already, the issue of statistical tests for comparisons of more algorithms on multiple data sets, which is even more essential to typical machine learning studies, has been all but ignored. This article reviews the current practice and then theoretically and empirically examines several suitable tests. Based on that, we recommend a set of simple, yet safe and robust non-parametric tests for statistical comparisons of classifiers: the Wilcoxon signed ranks test for comparison of two classifiers and the Friedman test with the corresponding post-hoc tests for comparison of more classifiers over multiple data sets. Results of the latter can also be neatly presented with the newly introduced CD (critical difference) diagrams.

B-splines are attractive for nonparametric modelling, but choosing the optimal number and positions of knots is a complex task. Equidistant knots can be used, but their small and discrete number allows only limited control over smoothness and fit. We propose to use a relatively large number of knots and a difference penalty on coefficients of adjacent B-splines. We show connections to the familiar spline penalty on the integral of the squared second derivative. A short overview of B-splines, their construction, and penalized likelihood is presented. We discuss properties of penalized B-splines and propose various criteria for the choice of an optimal penalty parameter. Nonparametric logistic regression, density estimation and scatterplot smoothing are used as examples. Some details of the computations are presented. Keywords: Generalized linear models, smoothing, nonparametric models, splines, density estimation. Address for correspondence: DCMR Milieudienst Rijnmond, 's-Gravelandse...

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This dissertation is about the application of machine learning to robot control. A system which has no initial model of the robot/world dynamics should be able to construct such a model using data received through its sensors--an approach which is formalized here as the $AB (State-Action-Behaviour) control cycle. A method of learning is presented in which all the experiences in the lifetime of the robot are explicitly remembered. The experiences are stored in a manner which permits fast recall of the closest previous experience to any new situation, thus permitting very quick predictions of the effects of proposed actions and, given a goal behaviour, permitting fast generation of a candidate action. The learning can take place in high-dimensional non-linear control spaces with real-valued ranges of variables. Furthermore, the method avoids a number of shortcomings of earlier learning methods in which the controller can become trapped in inadequate performance which does not improve. Also considered is how the system is made resistant to noisy inputs and how it adapts to environmental changes. A well founded mechanism for choosing actions is introduced which solves the experiment/perform dilemma for this domain with adequate computational efficiency, and with fast convergence to the goal behaviour. The dissertation explefins in detail how the $AB control cycle can be integrated into both low and high complexity tasks. The methods and algorithms are evaluated with numerous experiments using both real and simulated robot domefins. The final experiment also illustrates how a compound learning task can be structured into a hierarchy of simple learning tasks.

. A kernel smoother is an intuitive estimate of a regression function or conditional expectation; at each point x 0 the estimate of E(Y j x 0 ) is a weighted mean of the sample Y i , with observations close to x 0 receiving the largest weights. Unfortunately this simplicity has flaws. At the boundary of the predictor space, the kernel neighborhood is asymmetric and the estimate may have substantial bias. Bias can be a problem in the interior as well if the predictors are nonuniform or if the regression function has substantial curvature. These problems are particularly severe when the predictors are multidimensional. A variety of kernel modifications have been proposed to provide approximate and asymptotic adjustment for these biases. Such methods generally place substantial restrictions on the regression problems that can be considered; in unfavorable situations, they can perform very poorly. Moreover, the necessary modifications are very difficult to implement in the multidimensional...

We undertake a comprehensive investigation of price and volume co-movement using daily New York Stock Exchange data from 1928 to 1987. We adjust the data to take into account well-known calendar effects and long-run trends. To describt tbe process, we use a seminonparametric estimate of the joint density of current price change and volume conditional on past price changes and volume. Four empirical regularities are found: 1) positive correlation between conditional volatility and volume, 2) large price movements are followed by high volume, 3) conditioning on lagged volume substantially attenuates the "leverage " effect, and 4) after conditioning on lagged volume, there is a positive risk/return relation.