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31
DecisionTheoretic Planning: Structural Assumptions and Computational Leverage
 JOURNAL OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE RESEARCH
, 1999
"... Planning under uncertainty is a central problem in the study of automated sequential decision making, and has been addressed by researchers in many different fields, including AI planning, decision analysis, operations research, control theory and economics. While the assumptions and perspectives ..."
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Cited by 511 (4 self)
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Planning under uncertainty is a central problem in the study of automated sequential decision making, and has been addressed by researchers in many different fields, including AI planning, decision analysis, operations research, control theory and economics. While the assumptions and perspectives adopted in these areas often differ in substantial ways, many planning problems of interest to researchers in these fields can be modeled as Markov decision processes (MDPs) and analyzed using the techniques of decision theory. This paper presents an overview and synthesis of MDPrelated methods, showing how they provide a unifying framework for modeling many classes of planning problems studied in AI. It also describes structural properties of MDPs that, when exhibited by particular classes of problems, can be exploited in the construction of optimal or approximately optimal policies or plans. Planning problems commonly possess structure in the reward and value functions used to de...
Operations for Learning with Graphical Models
 Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research
, 1994
"... This paper is a multidisciplinary review of empirical, statistical learning from a graphical model perspective. Wellknown examples of graphical models include Bayesian networks, directed graphs representing a Markov chain, and undirected networks representing a Markov field. These graphical models ..."
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Cited by 278 (13 self)
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This paper is a multidisciplinary review of empirical, statistical learning from a graphical model perspective. Wellknown examples of graphical models include Bayesian networks, directed graphs representing a Markov chain, and undirected networks representing a Markov field. These graphical models are extended to model data analysis and empirical learning using the notation of plates. Graphical operations for simplifying and manipulating a problem are provided including decomposition, differentiation, and the manipulation of probability models from the exponential family. Two standard algorithm schemas for learning are reviewed in a graphical framework: Gibbs sampling and the expectation maximization algorithm. Using these operations and schemas, some popular algorithms can be synthesized from their graphical specification. This includes versions of linear regression, techniques for feedforward networks, and learning Gaussian and discrete Bayesian networks from data. The paper conclu...
The Bayes Net Toolbox for MATLAB
 Computing Science and Statistics
, 2001
"... The Bayes Net Toolbox (BNT) is an opensource Matlab package for directed graphical models. BNT supports many kinds of nodes (probability distributions), exact and approximate inference, parameter and structure learning, and static and dynamic models. BNT is widely used in teaching and research: the ..."
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Cited by 243 (1 self)
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The Bayes Net Toolbox (BNT) is an opensource Matlab package for directed graphical models. BNT supports many kinds of nodes (probability distributions), exact and approximate inference, parameter and structure learning, and static and dynamic models. BNT is widely used in teaching and research: the web page has received over 28,000 hits since May 2000. In this paper, we discuss a broad spectrum of issues related to graphical models (directed and undirected), and describe, at a highlevel, how BNT was designed to cope with them all. We also compare BNT to other software packages for graphical models, and to the nascent OpenBayes effort.
Reasoning about beliefs and actions under computational resource constraints
 in Proceedings of the 1989 Workshop on Uncertainty and AI
, 1987
"... Although many investigators arm a desire to build reasoning systems that behave consistently with the axiomatic basis dened by probability theory and utility theory, limited resources for engineering and computation can make a complete normative analysis impossible. We attempt to move discussion be ..."
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Cited by 217 (21 self)
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Although many investigators arm a desire to build reasoning systems that behave consistently with the axiomatic basis dened by probability theory and utility theory, limited resources for engineering and computation can make a complete normative analysis impossible. We attempt to move discussion beyond the debate over the scope of problems that can be handled eectively to cases where it is clear that there are insucient computational resources to perform an analysis deemed as complete. Under these conditions, we stress the importance of considering the expected costs and benets of applying alternative approximation procedures and heuristics for computation and knowledge acquisition. We discuss how knowledge about the structure of user utility can be used to control value tradeos for tailoring inference to alternative contexts. We address the notion of realtime rationality, focusing on the application of knowledge about the expected timewiserenement abilities of reasoning strategies to balance the bene ts of additional computation with the costs of acting with a partial result. We discuss the benets of applying decision theory to control the solution of dicult problems given limitations and uncertainty in reasoning resources. 1
Policy Recognition in the Abstract Hidden Markov Model
 Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research
, 2002
"... In this paper, we present a method for recognising an agent's behaviour in dynamic, noisy, uncertain domains, and across multiple levels of abstraction. We term this problem online plan recognition under uncertainty and view it generally as probabilistic inference on the stochastic process rep ..."
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Cited by 161 (25 self)
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In this paper, we present a method for recognising an agent's behaviour in dynamic, noisy, uncertain domains, and across multiple levels of abstraction. We term this problem online plan recognition under uncertainty and view it generally as probabilistic inference on the stochastic process representing the execution of the agent's plan. Our contributions in this paper are twofold. In terms of probabilistic inference, we introduce the Abstract Hidden Markov Model (AHMM), a novel type of stochastic processes, provide its dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) structure and analyse the properties of this network. We then describe an application of the RaoBlackwellised Particle Filter to the AHMM which allows us to construct an ecient, hybrid inference method for this model. In terms of plan recognition, we propose a novel plan recognition framework based on the AHMM as the plan execution model. The RaoBlackwellised hybrid inference for AHMM can take advantage of the independence properties inherent in a model of plan execution, leading to an algorithm for online probabilistic plan recognition that scales well with the number of levels in the plan hierarchy. This illustrates that while stochastic models for plan execution can be complex, they exhibit special structures which, if exploited, can lead to efficient plan recognition algorithms. We demonstrate the usefulness of the AHMM framework via a behaviour recognition system in a complex spatial environment using distributed video surveillance data.
Control of Selective Perception Using Bayes Nets and Decision Theory
, 1993
"... A selective vision system sequentially collects evidence to support a specified hypothesis about a scene, as long as the additional evidence is worth the effort of obtaining it. Efficiency comes from processing the scene only where necessary, to the level of detail necessary, and with only the neces ..."
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Cited by 117 (2 self)
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A selective vision system sequentially collects evidence to support a specified hypothesis about a scene, as long as the additional evidence is worth the effort of obtaining it. Efficiency comes from processing the scene only where necessary, to the level of detail necessary, and with only the necessary operators. Knowledge representation and sequential decisionmaking are central issues for selective vision, which takes advantage of prior knowledge of a domain's abstract and geometrical structure and models for the expected performance and cost of visual operators. The TEA1 selective vision system uses Bayes nets for representation and benefitcost analysis for control of visual and nonvisual actions. It is the highlevel control for an active vision system, enabling purposive behavior, the use of qualitative vision modules and a pointable multiresolution sensor. TEA1 demonstrates that Bayes nets and decision theoretic techniques provide a general, reusable framework for constructi...
Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes
 JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY, SERIES B (WITH
, 2002
"... ... this paper is to use experimental or observational data to estimate decision regimes that result in a maximal mean response. To explicate our objective and state assumptions, we use the potential outcomes model. The proposed method makes smooth, parametric assumptions only on quantities directly ..."
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Cited by 89 (13 self)
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... this paper is to use experimental or observational data to estimate decision regimes that result in a maximal mean response. To explicate our objective and state assumptions, we use the potential outcomes model. The proposed method makes smooth, parametric assumptions only on quantities directly relevant to the goal of estimating the optimal rules. We illustrate the proposed methodology via a small simulation.
Optimization in continuous domains by learning and simulation of Gaussian networks
"... This paper shows how the Gaussian network paradigm can be used to solve optimization problems in continuous domains. Some methods of structure learning from data and simulation of Gaussian networks are applied in the Estimation of Distribution Algorithm (EDA) as well as new methods based on in ..."
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Cited by 40 (4 self)
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This paper shows how the Gaussian network paradigm can be used to solve optimization problems in continuous domains. Some methods of structure learning from data and simulation of Gaussian networks are applied in the Estimation of Distribution Algorithm (EDA) as well as new methods based on information theory are proposed. Experimental results are also presented. 1 Estimation of Distribution Algorithms approaches in continuous domains Figure 1 shows a schematic of the EDA approach for continuous domains. We will use x = (x 1 ; : : : ; xn ) to denote individuals, and D l to denote the population of N individuals in the lth generation. Similarly, D Se l will represent the population of the selected Se individuals from D l . In the EDA [9] our interest will be to estimate f(x j D Se ), that is, the joint probability density function over one individual x being among the selected individuals. We denote as f l (x) = f l (x j D Se l 1 ) the joint density of the lth genera...
Inference and Learning in Hybrid Bayesian Networks
, 1998
"... We survey the literature on methods for inference and learning in Bayesian Networks composed of discrete and continuous nodes, in which the continuous nodes have a multivariate Gaussian distribution, whose mean and variance depends on the values of the discrete nodes. We also briefly consider hybrid ..."
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Cited by 39 (3 self)
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We survey the literature on methods for inference and learning in Bayesian Networks composed of discrete and continuous nodes, in which the continuous nodes have a multivariate Gaussian distribution, whose mean and variance depends on the values of the discrete nodes. We also briefly consider hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Networks, an extension of switching Kalman filters. This report is meant to summarize what is known at a sufficient level of detail to enable someone to implement the algorithms, but without dwelling on formalities.