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We show in this paper that the AGM postulates are too week to ensure the rational preservation of conditional beliefs during belief revision, thus permitting improper responses to sequences of observations. We remedy this weakness by proposing four additional postulates, which are sound relative to a qualitative version of probabilistic conditioning. Contrary to the AGM framework, the proposed postulates characterize belief revision as a process which may depend on elements of an epistemic state that are not necessarily captured by a belief set. We also show that a simple modification to the AGM framework can allow belief revision to be a function of epistemic states. We establish a model-based representation theorem which characterizes the proposed postulates and constrains, in turn, the way in which entrenchment orderings may be transformed under iterated belief revision. Keywords: Iterated revision, AGM postulates, conditional beliefs, probabilistic conditioning, epistemic states, ...

In this paper, we describe an abstract framework and axioms under which exact local computation of marginals is possible. The primitive objects of the framework are variables and valuations. The primitive operators of the framework are combination and marginalization. These operate on valuations. We state three axioms for these operators and we derive the possibility of local computation from the axioms. Next, we describe a propagation scheme for computing marginals of a valuation when we have a factorization of the valuation on a hypertree. Finally we show how the problem of computing marginals of joint probability distributions and joint belief functions fits the general framework. 1.

A key issue when reasoning with default rules is how to order them so as to derive plausible conclusions according to the more specific rules applicable to the situation under concern, to make sure that default rules are not systematically inhibited by more general rules, and to cope with the problem of irrelevance of facts with respect to exceptions. Pearl's system Z enables us to rank-order default rules. In this paper we show how to encode such a rank-ordered set of defaults in possibilistic logic. We can thus take advantage of the deductive machinery available in possibilistic logic. We point out that the notion of inconsistency tolerant inference in possibilistic logic corresponds to the bold inference ; 1 in system Z. We also show how to express defaults by means of qualitative possibility relations. Improvements to the ordering provided by system Z are also proposed.

We propose a new definition of actual causes, using structural equations to model counterfactuals. We show that the definition yields a plausible and elegant account of causation that handles well examples which have caused problems for other definitions

A counterpart to von Neumann and Morgenstern' expected utility theory is proposed in the framework of possibility theory. The existence of a utility function, representing a preference ordering among possibility distributions (on the consequences of decision-maker's actions) that satisfies a series of axioms pertaining to decision-maker's behavior, is established. The obtained utility is a generalization of Wald's criterion, which is recovered in case of total ignorance; when ignorance is only partial, the utility takes into account the fact that some situations are more plausible than others. Mathematically, the qualitative utility is nothing but the necessity measure of a fuzzy event in the sense of possibility theory (a so-called Sugeno integral). The possibilistic representation of uncertainty, which only requires a linearly ordered scale, is qualitative in nature. Only max, min and order-reversing operations are used on the scale. The axioms express a risk-averse behavior of the d...

this paper: default reasoning. In recent years, a number of different semantics for defaults have been proposed, such as preferential structures, ffl-semantics, possibilistic structures, and -rankings, that have been shown to be characterized by the same set of axioms, known as the KLM properties. While this was viewed as a surprise, we show here that it is almost inevitable. In the framework of plausibility measures, we can give a necessary condition for the KLM axioms to be sound, and an additional condition necessary and sufficient to ensure that the KLM axioms are complete. This additional condition is so weak that it is almost always met whenever the axioms are sound. In particular, it is easily seen to hold for all the proposals made in the literature. Categories and Subject Descriptors: F.4.1 [Mathematical Logic and Formal Languages]:

In this paper it is argued that, in order to solve the problem of iterated belief change, both the belief state and its input should be represented as epistemic entrenchment (EE) relations. A belief revision operation is constructed that updates a given EE relation to a new one in light of an evidential EE relation. It is shown that the operation in question satisfies generalized versions of the Gardenfors revision postulates. The account offered is motivated by Spohn's ordinal conditionalization functions, and can be seen as the Jeffrization of a proposal considered by Rott.

. This short paper relates the conditional object-based and possibility theorybased approaches for reasoning with conditional statements pervaded with exceptions, to other methods in nonmonotonic reasoning which have been independently proposed: namely, Lehmann's preferential and rational closure entailments which obey normative postulates, the infinitesimal probability approach, and the conditional (modal) logics-based approach. All these methods are shown to be equivalent with respect to their capabilities for reasoning with conditional knowledge although they are based on different modeling frameworks. It thus provides a unified understanding of nonmonotonic consequence relations. More particularly, conditional objects, a purely qualitative counterpart to conditional probabilities, offer a very simple semantics, based on a 3-valued calculus, for the preferential entailment, while in the purely ordinal setting of possibility theory both the preferential and the rational closure entai...

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