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53
Risk Aversion and Expected-Utility Theory: A Calibration Theorem
- ECONOMETRICA
, 1999
"... Within the expected-utility framework, the only explanation for risk aversion is that the utility function for wealth is concave: A person has lower marginal utility for additional wealth when she is wealthy than when she is poor. This paper provides a theorem showing that expected-utility theory ..."
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Cited by 94 (4 self)
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Within the expected-utility framework, the only explanation for risk aversion is that the utility function for wealth is concave: A person has lower marginal utility for additional wealth when she is wealthy than when she is poor. This paper provides a theorem showing that expected-utility theory is an utterly implausible explanation for appreciable risk aversion over modest stakes: Within expected-utility theory, for any concave utility function, even very little risk aversion over modest stakes implies an absurd degree of risk aversion over large stakes. Illustrative calibrations are provided.
Mental Accounting Matters
- JOURNAL OF BEHAVIORAL DECISION MAKING J. BEHAV. DEC. MAKING, 12: 183~206 (1999)
, 1999
"... Mental accounting is the set of cognitive operations used by individuals and households to organize, evaluate, and keep track of financial activities. Making use of research on this topic over the past decade, this paper summarizes the current state of our knowledge about how people engage in mental ..."
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Cited by 61 (5 self)
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Mental accounting is the set of cognitive operations used by individuals and households to organize, evaluate, and keep track of financial activities. Making use of research on this topic over the past decade, this paper summarizes the current state of our knowledge about how people engage in mental accounting activities. Three components of mental accounting receive the most attention. This first captures how outcomes are perceived and experienced, and how decisions are made and subsequently evaluated. The accounting system provides the inputs to be both ex ante and ex post cost-benefit analyses. A second component of mental accounting involves the assignment of activities to specific accounts. Both the sources and uses of funds are labeled in real as well as in mental accounting systems. Expenditures are grouped into categories (housing, food, etc.) and spending is sometimes constrained by implicit or explicit budgets. The third component of mental accounting concerns the frequency with which accounts are evaluated and 'choice bracketing'. Accounts can be balanced daily,
Nonlinear Pricing Kernels, Kurtosis Preference, and the Cross-Section of Assets Returns
- Journal of Finance
, 2002
"... This paper investigates nonlinear pricing kernels in which the risk factor is endogenously determined and preferences restrict the definition of the pricing kernel. These kernels potentially generate the empirical performance of nonlinear and multifactor models, while maintaining empirical power and ..."
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Cited by 49 (2 self)
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This paper investigates nonlinear pricing kernels in which the risk factor is endogenously determined and preferences restrict the definition of the pricing kernel. These kernels potentially generate the empirical performance of nonlinear and multifactor models, while maintaining empirical power and avoiding ad hoc specifications of factors or functional form. Our test results indicate that preferencerestricted nonlinear pricing kernels are both admissible for the cross section of returns and are able to significantly improve upon linear single- and multifactor kernels. Further, the nonlinearities in the pricing kernel drive out the importance of the factors in the linear multi-factor model. A PRINCIPAL IMPLICATION OF THE Capital Asset Pricing Model ~CAPM! is that the pricing kernel is linear in a single factor, the portfolio of aggregate wealth. Numerous studies over the past two decades have documented violations of this restriction. 1 In response, researchers have examined the performance of alternative models of asset prices. These models have generally fallen into two classes: ~1! multifactor models such as Ross ’ APT or Merton’s ICAPM, in which factors in addition to the market return determine asset prices; or ~2! nonparametric models, such as Bansal et al. ~1993!, Bansal and Viswanathan ~1993!, and Chapman ~1997!, in which the pricing kernel is not
Anomalies -- Risk Aversion
- JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES
, 2001
"... Economics can be distinguished from other social sciences by the belief that most (all?) behavior can be explained by assuming that rational agents with I stable, well-
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Cited by 42 (1 self)
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Economics can be distinguished from other social sciences by the belief that most (all?) behavior can be explained by assuming that rational agents with I stable, well-<lefined preferences interact in markets that (eventually) clear. An empirical result qualifies as an anomaly if it i ~ difficult to "rationalize " or if implausible assumptions are necessary to explain it within the paradigm. Suggestions for future topics should be sent to Richard Thaler, c/oJournal of Economic
Human behavior and the efficiency of the financial system
- Handbook of Macroeconomics
, 1999
"... Recent literature in empirical finance is surveyed in its relation to underlying behavioral principles, principles which come primarily from psychology, sociology and anthropology. The behavioral principles discussed are: prospect theory, regret and cognitive dissonance, anchoring, mental compartmen ..."
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Cited by 41 (2 self)
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Recent literature in empirical finance is surveyed in its relation to underlying behavioral principles, principles which come primarily from psychology, sociology and anthropology. The behavioral principles discussed are: prospect theory, regret and cognitive dissonance, anchoring, mental compartments, overconfidence, over- and underreaction, representativeness heuristic, the disjunction effect, gambling behavior and speculation, perceived irrelevance of history, magical thinking, quasi-magical thinking, attention anomalies, the availability heuristic, culture and social contagion, and global culture. Theories of human behavior from psychology, sociology, and anthropology have helped motivate much recent empirical research on the behavior of financial markets. In this paper I will survey both some of the most significant theories (for empirical finance) in these other social sciences and the empirical finance literature itself. Particular attention will be paid to the implications of these theories for the efficient markets hypothesis in finance. This is the hypothesis that financial prices efficiently incorporate all public
An Asset Allocation Puzzle
- National Bureau of Economic Research (Cambridge, MA) Working Paper
, 1994
"... This paper examines popular advice on portfolio allocation among cash, bonds, and stocks. It documents that this advice is inconsistent with the mutual-fund separation theorem, which states that all investors should hold the same composition of risky assets. In contrast to the theorem, popular advis ..."
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Cited by 18 (0 self)
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This paper examines popular advice on portfolio allocation among cash, bonds, and stocks. It documents that this advice is inconsistent with the mutual-fund separation theorem, which states that all investors should hold the same composition of risky assets. In contrast to the theorem, popular advisors recommend that aggressive investors hold a lower ratio of bonds to stocks than conservative investors. The paper explores various possible explanations of this puzzle and finds them unsatisfactory. (JEL GI l) How should an investor's attitude toward risk influence the composition of his portfolio? A simple and elegant answer to this question comes from the mutual-fund separation theorem. This theorem, a building block of the most basic Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), is taught regularly to undergraduates and business students. According to the theorem, more risk-averse investors should hold more of their portfolios in the riskless asset. The composition of risky assets, however, should be the same for all investors. Popular financial advisors appear not to follow the mutual-fund separation theorem. When these advisors are asked to allocate portfolios among stocks, bonds, and cash, they recommend more complicated strategies than indicated by the theorem. Moreover, these strategies differ from the theorem in a systematic way. According to these advisors, more risk-averse investors should hold a higher ratio of bonds to stocks. This advice contradicts the conclusion that all investors should hold risky assets in the same proportion. The purpose of this paper is to document this popular advice on portfolio allocation and
Why we should not make mean log of wealth big though years to act are long
- Journal of Banking and Finance
, 1979
"... He who acts in N plays to make his mean log of wealth as big as it can be made will, with odds that go to one as N soars, beat me who acts to meet my own tastes for risk. Who doubts that? What we do doubt I is that it should make us change our views on gains and losses- should taint our tastes for r ..."
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Cited by 15 (0 self)
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He who acts in N plays to make his mean log of wealth as big as it can be made will, with odds that go to one as N soars, beat me who acts to meet my own tastes for risk. Who doubts that? What we do doubt I is that it should make us change our views on gains and losses- should taint our tastes for risk. To be clear is to be found out. Know that life is not a game with net stake of one when you beat your twin, and with net stake of nought when you do not. A win of ten is not the same as a win of two. Nor is a loss of two the same as a loss of three. How much you win by counts. How much you lose by counts. As soon as we see this clear truth, we are back to our own tastes for risk. Mean log of wealth then bores those of us with tastes for risk not real near to one odd (thin!) point on the line of all the tastes for risk-and this holds for each N, with N as big as you like. Why then do some still think they should want to make mean log of
Do Professional Traders Exhibit Myopic Loss Aversion? An Experimental Analysis
- Journal of Finance
"... Two behavioral concepts, loss aversion and mental accounting, have been combined to provide a theoretical explanation of the equity premium puzzle. Recent experimental evidence supports the theory, as students ’ behavior has been found to be consistent with myopic loss aversion (MLA). Yet much like ..."
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Cited by 14 (1 self)
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Two behavioral concepts, loss aversion and mental accounting, have been combined to provide a theoretical explanation of the equity premium puzzle. Recent experimental evidence supports the theory, as students ’ behavior has been found to be consistent with myopic loss aversion (MLA). Yet much like certain anomalies in the realm of riskless decision-making, these behavioral tendencies may be attenuated among professionals. Using traders recruited from the CBOT, we do indeed find behavioral differences between professionals and students, but rather than discovering that the anomaly is muted, we find that traders exhibit behavior consistent with MLA to a greater extent than students.
Rejecting Small Gambles Under Expected Utility
- Economics Letters
, 2006
"... This paper contributes to an important recent debate around expected utility and risk aversion. Rejecting a gamble over a given range of wealth levels imposes a lower bound on risk aversion. Using this lower bound and empirical evidence on the range of the risk aversion coefficient, we calibrate the ..."
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Cited by 10 (0 self)
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This paper contributes to an important recent debate around expected utility and risk aversion. Rejecting a gamble over a given range of wealth levels imposes a lower bound on risk aversion. Using this lower bound and empirical evidence on the range of the risk aversion coefficient, we calibrate the relationship between risk attitudes over small-stakes and large-stakes gambles. We find that rejecting small gambles is consistent with expected utility, contrary to a recent literature that concludes that expected utility is fundamentally unfit to explain decisions under uncertainty. Paradoxical behavior is only obtained when calibrations are made in a region of the parameter space that is not empirically relevant. JEL Classification: D00, D80, D81.

