This article provides a Markov model for the term structure of credit risk spreads. The model is based on Jarrow and Turnbull (1995), with the bankruptcy process following a discrete state space Markov chain in credit ratings. The parameters of this process are easily estimated using observable data. This model is useful for pricing and hedging corporate debt with imbedded options, for pricing and hedging OTC derivatives with counterparty risk, for pricing and hedging (foreign) government bonds subject to default risk (e.g., municipal bonds), for pricing and hedging credit derivatives, and for risk management. This article presents a simple model for valuing risky debt that explicitly incorporates a firm's credit rating as an indicator of the likelihood of default. As such, this article presents an arbitrage-free model for the term structure of credit risk spreads and their evolution through time. This model will prove useful for the pricing and hedging of corporate debt with We would like to thank John Tierney of Lehman Brothers for providing the bond index price data, and Tal Schwartz for computational assistance. We would also like to acknowledge helpful comments received from an anonymous referee. Send all correspondence to Robert A. Jarrow, Johnson Graduate School of Management, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853. The Review of Financial Studies Summer 1997 Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 481--523 1997 The Review of Financial Studies 0893-9454/97/$1.50 imbedded options, for the pricing and hedging of OTC derivatives with counterparty risk, for the pricing and hedging of (foreign) government bonds subject to default risk (e.g., municipal bonds), and for the pricing and hedging of credit derivatives (e.g. credit sensitive notes and spread adjusted notes). This model can also...

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SUSAN A. MURPHY. (Under the direction of P.K. Sen.)

Process Model for Survival Analysis.

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