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Bayes Factors
, 1995
"... In a 1935 paper, and in his book Theory of Probability, Jeffreys developed a methodology for quantifying the evidence in favor of a scientific theory. The centerpiece was a number, now called the Bayes factor, which is the posterior odds of the null hypothesis when the prior probability on the null ..."
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Cited by 990 (70 self)
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In a 1935 paper, and in his book Theory of Probability, Jeffreys developed a methodology for quantifying the evidence in favor of a scientific theory. The centerpiece was a number, now called the Bayes factor, which is the posterior odds of the null hypothesis when the prior probability on the null is onehalf. Although there has been much discussion of Bayesian hypothesis testing in the context of criticism of P values, less attention has been given to the Bayes factor as a practical tool of applied statistics. In this paper we review and discuss the uses of Bayes factors in the context of five scientific applications in genetics, sports, ecology, sociology and psychology.
Could Fisher, Jeffreys, and Neyman Have Agreed on Testing?
, 2002
"... Ronald Fisher advocated testing using pvalues; Harold Jeffreys proposed use of objective posterior probabilities of hypotheses; and Jerzy Neyman recommended testing with fixed error probabilities. Each was quite critical of the other approaches. ..."
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Cited by 29 (2 self)
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Ronald Fisher advocated testing using pvalues; Harold Jeffreys proposed use of objective posterior probabilities of hypotheses; and Jerzy Neyman recommended testing with fixed error probabilities. Each was quite critical of the other approaches.
Statistical Techniques for Language Recognition: An Introduction and Guide for Cryptanalysts
 Cryptologia
, 1993
"... We explain how to apply statistical techniques to solve several languagerecognition problems that arise in cryptanalysis and other domains. Language recognition is important in cryptanalysis because, among other applications, an exhaustive key search of any cryptosystem from ciphertext alone requir ..."
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Cited by 12 (2 self)
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We explain how to apply statistical techniques to solve several languagerecognition problems that arise in cryptanalysis and other domains. Language recognition is important in cryptanalysis because, among other applications, an exhaustive key search of any cryptosystem from ciphertext alone requires a test that recognizes valid plaintext. Written for cryptanalysts, this guide should also be helpful to others as an introduction to statistical inference on Markov chains. Modeling language as a finite stationary Markov process, we adapt a statistical model of pattern recognition to language recognition. Within this framework we consider four welldefined languagerecognition problems: 1) recognizing a known language, 2) distinguishing a known language from uniform noise, 3) distinguishing unknown 0thorder noise from unknown 1storder language, and 4) detecting nonuniform unknown language. For the second problem we give a most powerful test based on the NeymanPearson Lemma. For the oth...
Bayesian Maximum a Posteriori Multiple Testing Procedure
 Sankhya
, 2006
"... We consider a Bayesian approach to multiple hypothesis testing. A hierarchical prior model is based on imposing a prior distribution π(k) on the number of hypotheses arising from alternatives (false nulls). We then apply the maximum a posteriori (MAP) rule to find the most likely configuration of nu ..."
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Cited by 10 (4 self)
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We consider a Bayesian approach to multiple hypothesis testing. A hierarchical prior model is based on imposing a prior distribution π(k) on the number of hypotheses arising from alternatives (false nulls). We then apply the maximum a posteriori (MAP) rule to find the most likely configuration of null and alternative hypotheses. The resulting MAP procedure and its closely related stepup and stepdown versions compare ordered Bayes factors of individual hypotheses with a sequence of critical values depending on the prior. We discuss the relations between the proposed MAP procedure and the existing frequentist and Bayesian counterparts. A more detailed analysis is given for the normal data, where we show, in particular, that by choosing a specific π(k), the MAP procedure can mimic several known familywise error (FWE) and false discovery rate (FDR) controlling procedures. The performance of MAP procedures is illustrated on a simulated example. AMS (2000) subject classification. Primary 62F15, 62F03.
BayesianMotivated Tests of Function Fit and their Asymptotic Frequentist Properties, The Annals of Statistics
, 2004
"... We propose and analyze nonparametric tests of the null hypothesis that a function belongs to a specified parametric family. The tests are based on BIC approximations, πBIC, to the posterior probability of the null model, and may be carried out in either Bayesian or frequentist fashion. We obtain res ..."
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Cited by 1 (0 self)
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We propose and analyze nonparametric tests of the null hypothesis that a function belongs to a specified parametric family. The tests are based on BIC approximations, πBIC, to the posterior probability of the null model, and may be carried out in either Bayesian or frequentist fashion. We obtain results on the asymptotic distribution of πBIC under both the null hypothesis and local alternatives. One version of πBIC, call it π ∗ BIC, uses a class of models that are orthogonal to each other and growing in number without bound as sample size, n, tends to infinity. We show that √ n(1 − π ∗ BIC) converges in distribution to a stable law under the null hypothesis. We also show that π ∗ BIC can detect local alternatives converging to the null at the rate � log n/n. A particularly interesting finding is that the power of the π ∗ BICbased test is asymptotically equal to that of a test based on the maximum of alternative loglikelihoods. Simulation results and an example involving variable star data illustrate desirable features of the proposed tests. 1. Introduction. Consider
Test Result Positive Negative
"... (or model) M of the diagnostic test has the following error characteristics: ..."
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(or model) M of the diagnostic test has the following error characteristics:
RESEARCH ARTICLE Open Access GCContent Normalization for RNASeq Data
"... Background: Transcriptome sequencing (RNASeq) has become the assay of choice for highthroughput studies of gene expression. However, as is the case with microarrays, major technologyrelated artifacts and biases affect the resulting expression measures. Normalization is therefore essential to ensu ..."
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Background: Transcriptome sequencing (RNASeq) has become the assay of choice for highthroughput studies of gene expression. However, as is the case with microarrays, major technologyrelated artifacts and biases affect the resulting expression measures. Normalization is therefore essential to ensure accurate inference of expression levels and subsequent analyses thereof. Results: We focus on biases related to GCcontent and demonstrate the existence of strong samplespecific GCcontent effects on RNASeq read counts, which can substantially bias differential expression analysis. We propose three simple withinlane genelevel GCcontent normalization approaches and assess their performance on two different RNASeq datasets, involving different species and experimental designs. Our methods are compared to stateoftheart normalization procedures in terms of bias and mean squared error for expression foldchange estimation and in terms of Type I error and pvalue distributions for tests of differential expression. The exploratory data analysis and normalization methods proposed in this article are implemented in the opensource Bioconductor R package EDASeq. Conclusions: Our withinlane normalization procedures, followed by betweenlane normalization, reduce GCcontent bias and lead to more accurate estimates of expression foldchanges and tests of differential
ImputationBased Analysis of Association Studies: Candidate Regions and Quantitative Traits
"... We introduce a new framework for the analysis of association studies, designed to allow untyped variants to be more effectively and directly tested for association with a phenotype. The idea is to combine knowledge on patterns of correlation among SNPs (e.g., from the International HapMap project or ..."
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We introduce a new framework for the analysis of association studies, designed to allow untyped variants to be more effectively and directly tested for association with a phenotype. The idea is to combine knowledge on patterns of correlation among SNPs (e.g., from the International HapMap project or resequencing data in a candidate region of interest) with genotype data at tag SNPs collected on a phenotyped study sample, to estimate (‘‘impute’’) unmeasured genotypes, and then assess association between the phenotype and these estimated genotypes. Compared with standard singleSNP tests, this approach results in increased power to detect association, even in cases in which the causal variant is typed, with the greatest gain occurring when multiple causal variants are present. It also provides more interpretable explanations for observed associations, including assessing, for each SNP, the strength of the evidence that it (rather than another correlated SNP) is causal. Although we focus on association studies with quantitative phenotype and a relatively restricted region (e.g., a candidate gene), the framework is applicable and computationally practical for whole genome association studies. Methods described here are implemented in a
BAYESIAN FREQUENTIST HYBRID INFERENCE
, 2009
"... Bayesian and frequentist methods differ in many aspects, but share some basic optimality properties. In practice, there are situations in which one of the methods is more preferred by some criteria. We consider the case of inference about a set of multiple parameters, which can be divided into two d ..."
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Bayesian and frequentist methods differ in many aspects, but share some basic optimality properties. In practice, there are situations in which one of the methods is more preferred by some criteria. We consider the case of inference about a set of multiple parameters, which can be divided into two disjoint subsets. On one set, a frequentist method may be favored and on the other, the Bayesian. This motivates a joint estimation procedure in which some of the parameters are estimated Bayesian, and the rest by the maximumlikelihood estimator in the same parametric model, and thus keep the strengths of both the methods and avoid their weaknesses. Such a hybrid procedure gives us more flexibility in achieving overall inference advantages. We study the consistency and highorder asymptotic behavior of the proposed estimator, and illustrate its application. Also, the results imply a new method for constructing objective prior.
RealTime Strategy Game Training: Emergence of a Cognitive Flexibility Trait
"... Training in action video games can increase the speed of perceptual processing. However, it is unknown whether videogame training can lead to broadbased changes in higherlevel competencies such as cognitive flexibility, a core and neurally distributed component of cognition. To determine whether ..."
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Training in action video games can increase the speed of perceptual processing. However, it is unknown whether videogame training can lead to broadbased changes in higherlevel competencies such as cognitive flexibility, a core and neurally distributed component of cognition. To determine whether video gaming can enhance cognitive flexibility and, if so, why these changes occur, the current study compares two versions of a realtime strategy (RTS) game. Using a metaanalytic Bayes factor approach, we found that the gaming condition that emphasized maintenance and rapid switching between multiple information and action sources led to a large increase in cognitive flexibility as measured by a wide array of nonvideo gaming tasks. Theoretically, the results suggest that the distributed brain networks supporting cognitive flexibility can be tuned by engrossing video game experience that stresses maintenance and rapid manipulation of multiple information sources. Practically, these results suggest avenues for increasing cognitive function.