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210
An Analysis of FirstOrder Logics of Probability
 Artificial Intelligence
, 1990
"... : We consider two approaches to giving semantics to firstorder logics of probability. The first approach puts a probability on the domain, and is appropriate for giving semantics to formulas involving statistical information such as "The probability that a randomly chosen bird flies is greater than ..."
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Cited by 272 (18 self)
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: We consider two approaches to giving semantics to firstorder logics of probability. The first approach puts a probability on the domain, and is appropriate for giving semantics to formulas involving statistical information such as "The probability that a randomly chosen bird flies is greater than .9." The second approach puts a probability on possible worlds, and is appropriate for giving semantics to formulas describing degrees of belief, such as "The probability that Tweety (a particular bird) flies is greater than .9." We show that the two approaches can be easily combined, allowing us to reason in a straightforward way about statistical information and degrees of belief. We then consider axiomatizing these logics. In general, it can be shown that no complete axiomatization is possible. We provide axiom systems that are sound and complete in cases where a complete axiomatization is possible, showing that they do allow us to capture a great deal of interesting reasoning about prob...
A Logic for Reasoning about Probabilities
 Information and Computation
, 1990
"... We consider a language for reasoning about probability which allows us to make statements such as “the probability of E, is less than f ” and “the probability of E, is at least twice the probability of E,, ” where E, and EZ are arbitrary events. We consider the case where all events are measurable ( ..."
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Cited by 214 (19 self)
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We consider a language for reasoning about probability which allows us to make statements such as “the probability of E, is less than f ” and “the probability of E, is at least twice the probability of E,, ” where E, and EZ are arbitrary events. We consider the case where all events are measurable (i.e., represent measurable sets) and the more general case, which is also of interest in practice, where they may not be measurable. The measurable case is essentially a formalization of (the propositional fragment of) Nilsson’s probabilistic logic. As we show elsewhere, the general (nonmeasurable) case corresponds precisely to replacing probability measures by DempsterShafer belief functions. In both cases, we provide a complete axiomatization and show that the problem of deciding satistiability is NPcomplete, no worse than that of propositional logic. As a tool for proving our complete axiomatizations, we give a complete axiomatization for reasoning about Boolean combinations of linear inequalities, which is of independent interest. This proof and others make crucial use of results from the theory of linear programming. We then extend the language to allow reasoning about conditional probability and show that the resulting logic is decidable and completely axiomatizable, by making use of the theory of real closed fields. ( 1990 Academic Press. Inc 1.
Probabilistic Logic Programming
, 1992
"... Of all scientific investigations into reasoning with uncertainty and chance, probability theory is perhaps the best understood paradigm. Nevertheless, all studies conducted thus far into the semantics of quantitative logic programming (cf. van Emden [51], Fitting [18, 19, 20], Blair and Subrahmanian ..."
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Cited by 131 (7 self)
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Of all scientific investigations into reasoning with uncertainty and chance, probability theory is perhaps the best understood paradigm. Nevertheless, all studies conducted thus far into the semantics of quantitative logic programming (cf. van Emden [51], Fitting [18, 19, 20], Blair and Subrahmanian [5, 6, 49, 50], Kifer et al [29, 30, 31]) have restricted themselves to nonprobabilistic semantical characterizations. In this paper, we take a few steps towards rectifying this situation. We define a logic programming language that is syntactically similar to the annotated logics of [5, 6], but in which the truth values are interpreted probabilistically. A probabilistic model theory and fixpoint theory is developed for such programs. This probabilistic model theory satisfies the requirements proposed by Fenstad [16] for a function to be called probabilistic. The logical treatment of probabilities is complicated by two facts: first, that the connectives cannot be interpreted truth function...
Relevance theory
 Handbook of Pragmatics
, 2004
"... This paper outlines the main assumptions of relevance theory (Sperber & Wilson 1985, 1995, 1998, 2002, Wilson & Sperber 2002), an inferential approach to pragmatics. Relevance theory is based on a definition of relevance and two principles of relevance: a Cognitive Principle (that human cognition is ..."
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Cited by 83 (1 self)
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This paper outlines the main assumptions of relevance theory (Sperber & Wilson 1985, 1995, 1998, 2002, Wilson & Sperber 2002), an inferential approach to pragmatics. Relevance theory is based on a definition of relevance and two principles of relevance: a Cognitive Principle (that human cognition is geared to the maximisation of relevance), and a Communicative Principle (that utterances create expectations of optimal relevance). We explain the motivation for these principles and illustrate their application to a variety of pragmatic problems. We end by considering the implications of this relevancetheoretic approach for the architecture of the mind. 1
Rationality and intelligence
 Artificial Intelligence
, 1997
"... The longterm goal of our field is the creation and understanding of intelligence. Productive research in AI, both practical and theoretical, benefits from a notion of intelligence that is precise enough to allow the cumulative development of robust systems and general results. This paper outlines a ..."
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Cited by 79 (1 self)
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The longterm goal of our field is the creation and understanding of intelligence. Productive research in AI, both practical and theoretical, benefits from a notion of intelligence that is precise enough to allow the cumulative development of robust systems and general results. This paper outlines a gradual evolution in our formal conception of intelligence that brings it closer to our informal conception and simultaneously reduces the gap between theory and practice. 1 Artificial Intelligence AI is a field in which the ultimate goal has often been somewhat illdefined and subject to dispute. Some researchers aim to emulate human cognition, others aim at the creation of
Probabilistic Reasoning in Terminological Logics
, 1994
"... In this paper a probabilistic extensions for terminological knowledge representation languages is defined. Two kinds of probabilistic statements are introduced: statements about conditional probabilities between concepts and statements expressing uncertain knowledge about a specific object. The usua ..."
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Cited by 75 (5 self)
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In this paper a probabilistic extensions for terminological knowledge representation languages is defined. Two kinds of probabilistic statements are introduced: statements about conditional probabilities between concepts and statements expressing uncertain knowledge about a specific object. The usual modeltheoretic semantics for terminological logics are extended to define interpretations for the resulting probabilistic language. It is our main objective to find an adequate modelling of the way the two kinds of probabilistic knowledge are combined in commonsense inferences of probabilistic statements. Cross entropy minimization is a technique that turns out to be very well suited for achieving this end. 1 INTRODUCTION Terminological knowledge representation languages (concept languages, terminological logics) are used to describe hierarchies of concepts. While the expressive power of the various languages that have been defined (e.g. KLONE [BS85] ALC [SSS91]) varies greatly in that ...
Minimum Description Length Induction, Bayesianism, and Kolmogorov Complexity
 IEEE Transactions on Information Theory
, 1998
"... The relationship between the Bayesian approach and the minimum description length approach is established. We sharpen and clarify the general modeling principles MDL and MML, abstracted as the ideal MDL principle and defined from Bayes's rule by means of Kolmogorov complexity. The basic condition un ..."
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Cited by 67 (7 self)
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The relationship between the Bayesian approach and the minimum description length approach is established. We sharpen and clarify the general modeling principles MDL and MML, abstracted as the ideal MDL principle and defined from Bayes's rule by means of Kolmogorov complexity. The basic condition under which the ideal principle should be applied is encapsulated as the Fundamental Inequality, which in broad terms states that the principle is valid when the data are random, relative to every contemplated hypothesis and also these hypotheses are random relative to the (universal) prior. Basically, the ideal principle states that the prior probability associated with the hypothesis should be given by the algorithmic universal probability, and the sum of the log universal probability of the model plus the log of the probability of the data given the model should be minimized. If we restrict the model class to the finite sets then application of the ideal principle turns into Kolmogorov's mi...
Probabilistic Deductive Databases
, 1994
"... Knowledgebase (KB) systems must typically deal with imperfection in knowledge, e.g. in the form of imcompleteness, inconsistency, uncertainty, to name a few. Currently KB system development is mainly based on the expert system technology. Expert systems, through their support for rulebased program ..."
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Cited by 57 (2 self)
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Knowledgebase (KB) systems must typically deal with imperfection in knowledge, e.g. in the form of imcompleteness, inconsistency, uncertainty, to name a few. Currently KB system development is mainly based on the expert system technology. Expert systems, through their support for rulebased programming, uncertainty, etc., offer a convenient framework for KB system development. But they require the user to be well versed with the low level details of system implementation. The manner in which uncertainty is handled has little mathematical basis. There is no decent notion of query optimization, forcing the user to take the responsibility for an efficient implementation of the KB system. We contend KB system development can and should take advantage of the deductive database technology, which overcomes most of the above limitations. An important problem here is to extend deductive databases into providing a systematic basis for rulebased programming with imperfect knowledge. In this paper, we are interested in an exension handling probabilistic knowledge.
A preliminary report on a general theory of inductive inference
, 1960
"... Some preliminary work is presented on a very general new theory of inductive inference. The extrapolation of an ordered sequence of symbols is implemented by computing the a priori probabilities of various sequences of symbols. The a priori probability of a sequence is obtained by considering a univ ..."
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Cited by 50 (12 self)
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Some preliminary work is presented on a very general new theory of inductive inference. The extrapolation of an ordered sequence of symbols is implemented by computing the a priori probabilities of various sequences of symbols. The a priori probability of a sequence is obtained by considering a universal Turing machine whose output is the sequence in question. An approximation to the a priori probability is given by the shortest input to the machine that will give the desired output. A more exact formulation is given, and it is made somewhat plausible that extrapolation probabilities obtained will be largely independent of just which universal Turing machine was used, providing that the sequence to be extrapolated has an adequate amount of information in it. Some examples are worked out to show the application of the method to specific problems. Applications of the method to curve fitting and other continuous problems are discussed to some extent. Some alternative
Random Worlds and Maximum Entropy
 In Proc. 7th IEEE Symp. on Logic in Computer Science
, 1994
"... Given a knowledge base KB containing firstorder and statistical facts, we consider a principled method, called the randomworlds method, for computing a degree of belief that some formula ' holds given KB . If we are reasoning about a world or system consisting of N individuals, then we can conside ..."
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Cited by 49 (12 self)
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Given a knowledge base KB containing firstorder and statistical facts, we consider a principled method, called the randomworlds method, for computing a degree of belief that some formula ' holds given KB . If we are reasoning about a world or system consisting of N individuals, then we can consider all possible worlds, or firstorder models, with domain f1; : : : ; Ng that satisfy KB , and compute the fraction of them in which ' is true. We define the degree of belief to be the asymptotic value of this fraction as N grows large. We show that when the vocabulary underlying ' and KB uses constants and unary predicates only, we can naturally associate an entropy with each world. As N grows larger, there are many more worlds with higher entropy. Therefore, we can use a maximumentropy computation to compute the degree of belief. This result is in a similar spirit to previous work in physics and artificial intelligence, but is far more general. Of equal interest to the result itself are...