e propose a comprehensive statistical model for analyzing multiparty, district-level elections. This model, which provides a tool for comparative politics research analogous to that which regression analysis provides in the American two-party context, can be used to explain or predict how geographic distributions of electoral results depend upon economic conditions, neighborhood ethnic compositions, campaign spending, and other features of the election campaign or aggregate areas. We also provide new graphical representations for data exploration, model evaluation, and substantive interpretation. We illustrate the use of this model by attempting to resolve a controversy over the size of and trend in the electoral advantage of incumbency in Britain. Contraiy to previous analyses, all based on measures now known to be biased, we demonstrate that the advantage is small but meaningfkl, varies substantially across the parties, and is not growing. Finally, we show how to estimate the party from which each party's advantage is predominantly drawn. w e propose the first internally consistent statistical model for analyzing multiparty, districtlevel aggregate election data. Our model can

Abstract: In the first part of this paper, we will introduce the theoretical framework for analyzing autobiographical narratives as it has been developed by the German sociologists Fritz Schütze and Gabriele Rosenthal 3, and later has been adapted by Koleva, Popova and others. 4 In the second part we will use this methodology to analyze empirical data that have been collected as part of our MICROCON study on ethnic identity and the risk of inter-ethnic conflict in Bulgaria. We focus on the question of how people belonging to the group of “ethnic Turks ” in Bulgaria define their ethnicity, between the competing contexts of the past (in the form of their experience) and the present (in the form of what they remember and how they reactualize it in their biographical narratives). The paper is based on the analysis of two (out of a sample of 120) narrative autobiographic interviews.

no. 4 (October 2002), pp. 505-529.