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Has the U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based on a MarkovSwitching Model of Business Cycle
, 1999
"... We hope to be able to provide answers to the following questions: 1) Has there been a structural break in postwar U.S. real GDP growth toward more stabilization? 2) If so, when would it have been? 3) What's the nature of the structural break? For this purpose, we employ a Bayesian approach to d ..."
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Cited by 322 (13 self)
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We hope to be able to provide answers to the following questions: 1) Has there been a structural break in postwar U.S. real GDP growth toward more stabilization? 2) If so, when would it have been? 3) What's the nature of the structural break? For this purpose, we employ a Bayesian approach to dealing with structural break at an unknown changepoint in a Markovswitching model of business cycle. Empirical results suggest that there has been a structural break in U.S. real GDP growth toward more stabilization, with the posterior mode of the break date around 1984:1. Furthermore, we #nd a narrowing gap between growth rates during recessions and booms is at least as important as a decline in the volatility of shocks. Key Words: Bayes Factor, Gibbs sampling, Marginal Likelihood, MarkovSwitching, Stabilization, Structural Break. JEL Classi#cations: C11, C12, C22, E32. 1. Introduction In the literature, the issue of postwar stabilization of the U.S. economy relative to the prewar period has...
Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective
 The Review of Economics and Statistics
, 1996
"... Abstract: In the first half of this century, special attention was given to two features of the business cycle: the comovement of many individual economic series and the different behavior of the economy during expansions and contractions. Recent theoretical and empirical research has revived intere ..."
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Cited by 113 (13 self)
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Abstract: In the first half of this century, special attention was given to two features of the business cycle: the comovement of many individual economic series and the different behavior of the economy during expansions and contractions. Recent theoretical and empirical research has revived interest in each attribute separately, and we survey this work. Notable empirical contributions are dynamic factor models that have a single common macroeconomic factor and nonlinear regimeswitching models of a macroeconomic aggregate. We conduct an empirical synthesis that incorporates both of these features. It is desirable to know the facts before attempting to explain them; hence, the attractiveness of organizing businesscycle regularities within a modelfree framework. During the first half of this century, much research was devoted to obtaining just such an empirical characterization of the business cycle. The most prominent example of this work
Nonlinear Gated Experts for Time Series: Discovering Regimes and Avoiding Overfitting
, 1995
"... this paper: ftp://ftp.cs.colorado.edu/pub/TimeSeries/MyPapers/experts.ps.Z, ..."
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Cited by 92 (5 self)
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this paper: ftp://ftp.cs.colorado.edu/pub/TimeSeries/MyPapers/experts.ps.Z,
Understanding Instrumental Variables in Models with Essential Heterogeneity
 The Review of Economics and Statistics
, 2006
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Dealing with Structural Breaks
 IN PALGRAVE HANDBOOK OF ECONOMETRICS
, 2006
"... This chapter is concerned with methodological issues related to estimation, testing and computation in the context of structural changes in the linear models. A central theme of the review is the interplay between structural change and unit root and on methods to distinguish between the two. The top ..."
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Cited by 36 (8 self)
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This chapter is concerned with methodological issues related to estimation, testing and computation in the context of structural changes in the linear models. A central theme of the review is the interplay between structural change and unit root and on methods to distinguish between the two. The topics covered are: methods related to estimation and inference about break dates for single equations with or without restrictions, with extensions to multiequations systems where allowance is also made for changes in the variability of the shocks; tests for structural changes including tests for a single or multiple changes and tests valid with unit root or trending regressors, and tests for changes in the trend function of a series that can be integrated or trendstationary; testing for a unit root versus trendstationarity in the presence of structural changes in the trend function; testing for cointegration in the presence of structural changes; and issues related to long memory and level shifts. Our focus is on the conceptual issues about the frameworks adopted and the assumptions imposed as they relate to potential applicability. We also highlight the potential problems that can occur with methods that are commonly used and recent work that has been done to overcome them.
On segmented multivariate regression
 Statistica Sinica
, 1997
"... Abstract: This paper concerns segmented multivariate regression models, models which have different linear forms in different subdomains of the domain of an independent variable. Without knowing that number and their boundaries, we first estimate the number of these subdomains using a modified Schw ..."
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Cited by 24 (0 self)
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Abstract: This paper concerns segmented multivariate regression models, models which have different linear forms in different subdomains of the domain of an independent variable. Without knowing that number and their boundaries, we first estimate the number of these subdomains using a modified Schwarz criterion. The estimated number of regions proves to be weakly consistent under fairly general conditions. We then estimate the subdomain boundaries (“thresholds”) and the regression coefficients within subdomains by minimizing the sum of squares of the residuals. We show that the threshold estimates converge (at rates, 1/n and n−1/2, respectively at the model’s threshold points of discontinuity and continuity) and that the regression coefficients as well as the residual variances are asymptotically normal. The basic condition on the error distribution required for the veracity of our asymptotic results is satisfied by any distribution with zero mean and a moment generating function (having bounded second derivative around zero). As an illustration, a segmented bivariate regression model is fitted to real data and the relevance of the asymptotic results is examined via simulations. Key words and phrases: Asymptotic normality, consistency, local exponential boundedness, rate of convergence, segmented multivariate regression. 1.
ℓ1 Trend Filtering
, 2007
"... The problem of estimating underlying trends in time series data arises in a variety of disciplines. In this paper we propose a variation on HodrickPrescott (HP) filtering, a widely used method for trend estimation. The proposed ℓ1 trend filtering method substitutes a sum of absolute values (i.e., ..."
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Cited by 22 (5 self)
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The problem of estimating underlying trends in time series data arises in a variety of disciplines. In this paper we propose a variation on HodrickPrescott (HP) filtering, a widely used method for trend estimation. The proposed ℓ1 trend filtering method substitutes a sum of absolute values (i.e., an ℓ1norm) for the sum of squares used in HP filtering to penalize variations in the estimated trend. The ℓ1 trend filtering method produces trend estimates that are piecewise linear, and therefore is well suited to analyzing time series with an underlying piecewise linear trend. The kinks, knots, or changes in slope, of the estimated trend can be interpreted as abrupt changes or events in the underlying dynamics of the time series. Using specialized interiorpoint methods, ℓ1 trend filtering can be carried out with not much more effort than HP filtering; in particular, the number of arithmetic operations required grows linearly with the number of data points. We describe the method and some of its basic properties, and give some illustrative examples. We show how the method is related to ℓ1 regularization based methods in sparse signal recovery and feature selection, and list some extensions of the basic method.
2007): “Efficient Bayesian Inference for Multiple ChangePoint and Mixture Innovation Models,” forthcoming
 Journal of Business and Economic Statistics
"... Time series subject to parameter shifts of random magnitude and timing are commonly modeled with a changepoint approach using Chib’s (1998) algorithm to draw the break dates. We outline some advantages of an alternative approach in which breaks come through mixture distributions in state innovation ..."
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Cited by 20 (1 self)
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Time series subject to parameter shifts of random magnitude and timing are commonly modeled with a changepoint approach using Chib’s (1998) algorithm to draw the break dates. We outline some advantages of an alternative approach in which breaks come through mixture distributions in state innovations, and for which the sampler of Gerlach, Carter and Kohn (2000) allows reliable and efficient inference. We show how the same sampler can be used to (i) model shifts in variance that occur independently of shifts in other parameters (ii) draw the break dates in O(n) rather than O(n 3) operations in the changepoint model of Koop and Potter (2004b), the most general to date. Finally, we introduce to the time series literature the concept of adaptive MetropolisHastings sampling for discrete latent variable models. We develop an easily implemented adaptive algorithm that improves on Gerlach et al. (2000) and promises to significantly reduce computing time in a variety of problems including mixture innovation, changepoint, regimeswitching, and outlier detection. The efficiency gains on two models for U.S. inflation and real interest rates are 257 % and 341%.