Modelling sequential data is important in many areas of science and engineering. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and Kalman filter models (KFMs) are popular for this because they are simple and flexible. For example, HMMs have been used for speech recognition and bio-sequence analysis, and KFMs have been used for problems ranging from tracking planes and missiles to predicting the economy. However, HMMs and KFMs are limited in their “expressive power”. Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) generalize HMMs by allowing the state space to be represented in factored form, instead of as a single discrete random variable. DBNs generalize KFMs by allowing arbitrary probability distributions, not just (unimodal) linear-Gaussian. In this thesis, I will discuss how to represent many different kinds of models as DBNs, how to perform exact and approximate inference in DBNs, and how to learn DBN models from sequential data. In particular, the main novel technical contributions of this thesis are as follows: a way of representing Hierarchical HMMs as DBNs, which enables inference to be done in O(T) time instead of O(T 3), where T is the length of the sequence; an exact smoothing algorithm that takes O(log T) space instead of O(T); a simple way of using the junction tree algorithm for online inference in DBNs; new complexity bounds on exact online inference in DBNs; a new deterministic approximate inference algorithm called factored frontier; an analysis of the relationship between the BK algorithm and loopy belief propagation; a way of applying Rao-Blackwellised particle filtering to DBNs in general, and the SLAM (simultaneous localization and mapping) problem in particular; a way of extending the structural EM algorithm to DBNs; and a variety of different applications of DBNs. However, perhaps the main value of the thesis is its catholic presentation of the field of sequential data modelling.

We show that it is possible to extend hidden Markov models to have a countably infinite number of hidden states. By using the theory of Dirichlet processes we can implicitly integrate out the infinitely many transition parameters, leaving only three hyperparameters which can be learned from data. These three hyperparameters define a hierarchical Dirichlet process capable of capturing a rich set of transition dynamics. The three hyperparameters control the time scale of the dynamics, the sparsity of the underlying state-transition matrix, and the expected number of distinct hidden states in a finite sequence. In this framework it is also natural to allow the alphabet of emitted symbols to be infinite---consider, for example, symbols being possible words appearing in English text.

In this paper a framework for maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation of hidden Markov models (HMM) is presented. Three key issues of MAP estimation, namely the choice of prior distribution family, the specification of the parameters of prior densities and the evaluation of the MAP estimates, are addressed. Using HMMs with Gaussian mixture state observation densities as an example, it is assumed that the prior densities for the HMM parameters can be adequately represented as a product of Dirichlet and normal-Wishart densities. The classical maximum likelihood estimation algorithms, namely the forward-backward algorithm and the segmental k-means algorithm, are expanded and MAP estimation formulas are developed. Prior density estimation issues are discussed for two classes of applications: parameter smoothing and model adaptation, and some experimental results are given illustrating the practical interest of this approach. Because of its adaptive nature, Bayesian learning is shown to serve as a unified approach for a wide range of speech recognition applications

Factor analysis, principal component analysis, mixtures of gaussian clusters, vector quantization, Kalman filter models, and hidden Markov models can all be unified as variations of unsupervised learning under a single basic generative model. This is achieved by collecting together disparate observations and derivations made by many previous authors and introducing a new way of linking discrete and continuous state models using a simple nonlinearity. Through the use of other nonlinearities, we show how independent component analysis is also a variation of the same basic generative model. We show that factor analysis and mixtures of gaussians can be implemented in autoencoder neural networks and learned using squared error plus the same regularization term. We introduce a new model for static data, known as sensible principal component analysis, as well as a novel concept of spatially adaptive observation noise. We also review some of the literature involving global and local mixtures of the basic models and provide pseudocode for inference and learning for all the basic models.

Many approaches to Bayesian image segmentation have used maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation in conjunction with Markov random fields (MRF). While this approach performs well, it has a number of disadvantages. In particular, exact MAP estimates cannot be computed, approximate MAP estimates are computationally expensive to compute, and unsupervised parameter estimation of the MRF is difficult. In this paper, we propose a new approach to Bayesian image segmentation which directly addresses these problems. The new method replaces the MRF model with a novel multiscale random field (MSRF), and replaces the MAP estimator with a sequential MAP (SMAP) estimator derived from a novel estimation criteria. Together, the proposed estimator and model result in a segmentation algorithm which is not iterative and can be computed in time proportional to MN where M is the number of classes and N is the number of pixels. We also develop a computationally effcient method for unsupervised estimation of m...

this paper. Let us place it within the neural network perspective, and particularly that of learning. The area of neural networks has greatly benefited from its unique position at the crossroads of several diverse scientific and engineering disciplines including statistics and probability theory, physics, biology, control and signal processing, information theory, complexity theory, and psychology (see [45]). Neural networks have provided a fertile soil for the infusion (and occasionally confusion) of ideas, as well as a meeting ground for comparing viewpoints, sharing tools, and renovating approaches. It is within the ill-defined boundaries of the field of neural networks that researchers in traditionally distant fields have come to the realization that they have been attacking fundamentally similar optimization problems.

It is known that Perceptual Aliasing may significantly diminish the effectiveness of reinforcement learning algorithms [ Whitehead and Ballard, 1991 ] . Perceptual aliasing occurs when multiple situations that are indistinguishable from immediate perceptual input require different responses from the system. For example, if a robot can only see forward, yet the presence of a battery charger behind it determines whether or not it should backup, immediate perception alone is insufficient for determining the most appropriate action. It is problematic since reinforcement algorithms typically learn a control policy from immediate perceptual input to the optimal choice of action. This paper introduces the predictive distinctions approach to compensate for perceptual aliasing caused from incomplete perception of the world. An additional component, a predictive model, is utilized to track aspects of the world that may not be visible at all times. In addition to the control policy, the model mus...

Discovering the structure inherent in a set of patterns is a fundamental aim of statistical inference or learning. One fruitful approach is to build a parameterized stochastic generative model, independent draws from which are likely to produce the patterns. For all but the simplest generative models, each pattern can be generated in exponentially many ways. It is thus intractable to adjust the parameters to maximize the probability of the observed patterns. We describe a way of finessing this combinatorial explosion by maximizing an easily computed lower bound on the probability of the observations. Our method can be viewed as a form of hierarchical self-supervised learning that may relate to the function of bottom-up and top-down cortical processing pathways.

We examine in some detail Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCCs) - the dominant features used for speech recognition - and investigate their applicability to modeling music. In particular, we examine two of the main assumptions of the process of forming MFCCs: the use of the Mel frequency scale to model the spectra; and the use of the Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) to decorrelate the Mel-spectral vectors.

Sequential decision making is a fundamental task faced by any intelligent agent in an extended interaction with its environment; it is the act of answering the question "What should I do now?" In this thesis, I show how to answer this question when "now" is one of a finite set of states, "do" is one of a finite set of actions, "should" is maximize a long-run measure of reward, and "I" is an automated planning or learning system (agent). In particular,