Explaining cross-country differences in growth rates requires not only an understanding of the link between growth and public policies, but also an understanding of why countries choose different public policies. This paper shows that ethnic diversity helps explain cross-country differences in public policies, political stability, and other economic indicators. In the case of Sub-Saharan Africa, economic growth is associated with low schooling, political instability, underdeveloped financial systems, distorted foreign exchange markets, high government deficits, and insufficient infrastructure. Africa’s high ethnic fragmentation explains a significant part of most of these characteristics.

Why is corruption — the misuse of public office for private gain — perceived to be more widespread in some countries than others? Different theories associate this with particular historical and cultural traditions, levels of economic development, political institutions, and government policies. This article analyzes several indexes of ‘perceived corruption’ compiled from business risk surveys for the 1980s and 1990s. Six arguments find support. Countries with Protestant traditions, histories of British rule, more developed economies, and (probably) higher imports were less ‘corrupt’. Federal states were more ‘corrupt’. While the current degree of democracy was not significant, long exposure to democracy predicted

This paper draws on data developed and is closely related to work in progress with David Laitin, whom I thank for many helpful comments and discussions

An influential conventional wisdom holds that civil wars proliferated rapidly with the end of the Cold War and that the root cause of many or most of these has been ethnic nationalism. We show that the current prevalence of internal war is mainly the result of a steady accumulation of protracted conflicts since the 50s and 60s rather than a sudden change associated with a new, post-Cold War international system. We also find that after controlling for per capita incomes and growth rates, more ethnically or religiously diverse countries have been no more likely to experience significant civil war in this period. We argue for understanding civil war in this period in terms of insurgency or rural guerrilla warfare, a particular form of military practice that can be harnessed to diverse political agendas, including but not limited to ethnic nationalism. The factors that explain which countries have been at risk for civil war are not their ethnic or religious characteristics but rather the conditions that favor insurgency. These include poverty and slow growth, which favor rebel recruitment and mark financially and bureaucratically weak states, rough terrain, and large populations. ∗Paper to be presented at the 2001 Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, CA, August 30-September 2. We wish to thank the many people who provided comments and suggestions on an earlier version of this paper, presented initially at the LiCEP meetings at Duke University,

seemingly intractable challenges to policymakers, scholars, and human rights groups seeking to put an end to such deadly con icts. In the wake of negotiated settlements to civil wars, one of the thorniest problems involves reassuring people who have been “killing one another with considerable enthusiasm and success ” that con ict is not about to break out again, endangering people’s lives.1 Those concerned with the implementation and ultimate success of negotiated settlements have debated how best to enhance the prospects of a stable peace. What arrange-ments, if any, can be used to persuade communities that intergroup relations will take place in a climate of relative security? Are there any mechanisms the international community might employ to discourage the resumption of violence? Is an enduring peace settlement more likely in certain environments than in others? In this research note we explore variables that help to explain the longevity of negotiated peace settlements. Analysts and policymakers interested in helping to foster a stable peace have focused on such variables as the international arena, institutional choice, the

This paper was written while Charlotte Opal was a summer intern at the World Bank We are grateful to Vernon Henderson for the use of his data base and for his suggestions; to Bill Easterly and the participants of the macro brownbag lunch seminar at the World Bank for their comments; and to Christine Kessides for her support and interest. All remaining errors are ours. This research was supported by the Transport, Water, and Urban Division of the World Bank. 1

Key words: chaos and transformation theories, change, continuity, and complexity theory, bifurcation, systems design, world systems design, organization theory, organizational change and adaptation, public management Chaos and transformation theories have emerged as new currencies in social sciences in general and in systems design and management, and in futuristic studies in particular. This article analyzes chaos and transformation theories in historical and contemporary perspectives, their contributions to social science in general, and organization theory and public management in particular. The notions of chaos and order, change and continuity, and uncertainty and certainty are analyzed along with the growing realization of complexity and non-linear dynamic features of modern organizations and the hard reality of a constant necessity to acquire new knowledge and learn to manage organizations with flexibility and innovation. Finally, the article addresses some of the limitations of chaos theory and outlines a number of implications for organization theory and public management in the age of globalization.

This paper examines average annual inflation rates in a panel of 87 countries in the 1970s and 80s. It finds a sharp divergence between developed countries---where decentralization correlates with lower inflation---and developing countries---where it correlates with higher inflation. Empirical analysis suggests that decentralization helps preserve central bank independence in OECD countries, while in non-OECD countries it increases pressures on the government to overspend and get the central bank to monetize the deficit. In developing countries, decentralization of tax authority also seems to reduce imports, thus reducing the political cost to central government of inflationinduced currency depreciation. Daniel Treisman Assistant Professor Department of Political Science University of California, Los Angeles 4289 Bunche Hall Los Angeles, CA 90095-1472 Treisman@polisci.ucla.edu June 1998 Draft. Comments Welcome. I. INTRODUCTION Do political and fiscal decentralization make it easier or more difficult to control inflation? A policymaker faced with this question might be excused for feeling some confusion. While the pros and cons of decentralization are vigorously debated in countries around the world, little is known conclusively about its relationship to stable prices. Opposite arguments exist, based on different theoretical premises, supported by different empirical examples, and implying opposite predictions.

of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit

Mathew Fitzsimons and the reviewers of Critical Sociology. ABSTRACT: This paper explores the social history of plant use from early European expansion to the present. The concept of "Botanical Imperialism " is used to link issues of ecology and devel-opment. Specifically, it addresses the appropriation, control, and economic use of plant cultigens in the context of the capitalist world system. Notions of colonial stewardship and Western property rights are analyzed as the ideological underpinnings of Botanical Imperialism. The paper then examines the relationship between the political economy, modern agronomy, and the devel-opment of hybrids by petrochemical monopolies, and the implica-tions of these for issues of overproduction, underdevelopment, species extinction, and global environmental destruction. Much of the literature on imperialism and underdevelopment focuses narrowly on the political economy. There is little attempt to examine the