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213
Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A CrossSectional Test When Risk Premia Are TimeVarying
 Journal of Political Economy
, 2001
"... This paper explores the ability of conditional versions of the CAPM and the consumption CAPM—jointly the (C)CAPM—to explain the cross section of average stock returns. Central to our approach is the use of the log consumption–wealth ratio as a conditioning variable. We demonstrate that such conditio ..."
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Cited by 169 (6 self)
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This paper explores the ability of conditional versions of the CAPM and the consumption CAPM—jointly the (C)CAPM—to explain the cross section of average stock returns. Central to our approach is the use of the log consumption–wealth ratio as a conditioning variable. We demonstrate that such conditional models perform far better than unconditional specifications and about as well as the FamaFrench threefactor model on portfolios sorted by size and booktomarket characteristics. The conditional consumption CAPM can account for the difference in returns between lowbooktomarket and highbooktomarket portfolios and exhibits little evidence of residual size or booktomarket effects. We are grateful to Eugene Fama and Kenneth French for graciously providing the
2004), “Income variance dynamics and heterogeneity
 Econometrica
"... Recent theoretical work has shown the importance of measuring microeconomic uncertainty for models of both general and partial equilibrium under imperfect insurance. In this paper the assumption of i.i.d. income innovations used in previous empirical studies is removed and the focus of the analysis ..."
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Cited by 153 (22 self)
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Recent theoretical work has shown the importance of measuring microeconomic uncertainty for models of both general and partial equilibrium under imperfect insurance. In this paper the assumption of i.i.d. income innovations used in previous empirical studies is removed and the focus of the analysis is placed on models for the conditional variance of income shocks, which is related to the measure of risk emphasized by the theory. We first discriminate amongst various models of earnings determination that separate income shocks into idiosyncratic transitory and permanent components. We allow for education and timespecific differences in the stochastic process for earnings and for measurement error. The conditional variance of the income shocks is modelled as a parsimonious ARCH process with both observable and unobserved heterogeneity. The empirical analysis is conducted on data drawn from the 1967–1992 Panel Study of Income Dynamics. We find strong evidence of sizeable ARCH effects as well as evidence of unobserved heterogeneity in the variances.
The bootstrap
 In Handbook of Econometrics
, 2001
"... The bootstrap is a method for estimating the distribution of an estimator or test statistic by resampling one’s data. It amounts to treating the data as if they were the population for the purpose of evaluating the distribution of interest. Under mild regularity conditions, the bootstrap yields an a ..."
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Cited by 117 (2 self)
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The bootstrap is a method for estimating the distribution of an estimator or test statistic by resampling one’s data. It amounts to treating the data as if they were the population for the purpose of evaluating the distribution of interest. Under mild regularity conditions, the bootstrap yields an approximation to the distribution of an estimator or test statistic that is at least as accurate as the
2004) Higher order properties of GMM and generalized empirical likelihood estimators
 Econometrica
"... In an effort to improve the small sample properties of generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators, a number of alternative estimators have been suggested. These include empirical likelihood (EL), continuous updating, and exponential tilting estimators. We show that these estimators share a com ..."
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Cited by 103 (5 self)
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In an effort to improve the small sample properties of generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators, a number of alternative estimators have been suggested. These include empirical likelihood (EL), continuous updating, and exponential tilting estimators. We show that these estimators share a common structure, being members of a class of generalized empirical likelihood (GEL) estimators. We use this structure to compare their higher order asymptotic properties. We find that GEL has no asymptotic bias due to correlation of the moment functions with their Jacobian, eliminating an important source of bias for GMM in models with endogeneity. We also find that EL has no asymptotic bias from estimating the optimal weight matrix, eliminating a further important source of bias for GMM in panel data models. We give bias corrected GMM and GEL estimators. We also show that bias corrected EL inherits the higher order property of maximum likelihood, that it is higher order asymptotically efficient relative to the other bias corrected estimators.
Information theoretic approaches to inference in moment condition models
 Econometrica
, 1998
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A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments
"... The Difference and System generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators are growing in popularity, thanks in part to specialized software. But as implemented in these packages, the estimators easily generate results by default that are at once invalid yet appear valid in specification tests. The cu ..."
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Cited by 77 (1 self)
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The Difference and System generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators are growing in popularity, thanks in part to specialized software. But as implemented in these packages, the estimators easily generate results by default that are at once invalid yet appear valid in specification tests. The culprit is their tendency to generate instruments that are a) numerous and, in System GMM, b) suspect. A large collection of instruments, even if individually valid, can be collectively invalid in finite samples because they overfit endogenous variables. They also weaken the Hansen test of overidentifying restrictions, which is commonly relied upon to check instrument validity. This paper reviews the evidence on the effects of instrument proliferation, and describes and simulates simple ways to control it. It illustrates the dangers by replicating two early applications to economic
The macroeconomic implications of rising wage inequality in the United States
 Journal of Political Economy. forthcoming
, 2010
"... This paper explores the macroeconomic and welfare implications of the sharp rise in U.S. wage inequality (19671996). In the data, crosssectional earnings variation increased substantially more than wage variation, due to a sharp rise in the wagehours correlation. At the same time, inequality in h ..."
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Cited by 61 (5 self)
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This paper explores the macroeconomic and welfare implications of the sharp rise in U.S. wage inequality (19671996). In the data, crosssectional earnings variation increased substantially more than wage variation, due to a sharp rise in the wagehours correlation. At the same time, inequality in hours worked and consumption remained roughly constant through time. Using data from the PSID, we decompose the rise in wage inequality into changes in the variance of permanent, persistent and transitory shocks. With the estimated changes in the wage process as the only primitive, we show that a standard calibrated OLG model with incomplete markets can successfully account for all these patterns in crosssectional U.S. data. Through a set of counterfactual experiments, we assess the role of each component of the wage process for the evolution in the various dimensions of inequality. The model also allows us to investigate the welfare costs of the rise in inequality: we find that the unconditional expected welfare loss is equivalent to a 5 percent decline in lifetime income for the worstaffected cohorts, those entering the labor market in the mid 1980’s. Ex post, these costs are widely dispersed across agents, due both to differences in permanent individual attributes and to differences in labor market histories. An extensive sensitivity analysis verifies the robustness of our results to alternative preferences and borrowing limits, and to the inclusion of female labor force participation.
Unequal We Stand: An Empirical Analysis of Economic Inequality in the United States, 1967—2006 ∗
, 2009
"... We conduct a systematic empirical study of crosssectional inequality in the United States, integrating data from the Current Population Survey, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the Consumer Expenditure Survey, and the Survey of Consumer Finances. In order to understand how different dimensions o ..."
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Cited by 57 (7 self)
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We conduct a systematic empirical study of crosssectional inequality in the United States, integrating data from the Current Population Survey, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the Consumer Expenditure Survey, and the Survey of Consumer Finances. In order to understand how different dimensions of inequality are related via choices, markets, and institutions, we follow the mapping suggested by the household budget constraint from individual wages to individual earnings, to household earnings, to disposable income, and, ultimately, to consumption and wealth. We document a continuous and sizable increase in wage inequality over the sample period. Changes in the distribution of hours worked sharpen the rise in earnings inequality before 1982, but mitigate its increase thereafter. Taxes and transfers compress the level of income inequality, especially at the bottom of the distribution, but have little effect on the overall trend. Finally, access to financial markets has limited both the level and growth of consumption inequality.
Estimating Discount Functions with Consumption Choices Over the Lifecycle. Working Paper
, 2005
"... Intertemporal preferences are di ¢ cult to measure. We estimate time preferences using a structural bu¤er stock consumption model and the Method of Simulated Moments. The model includes stochastic labor income, liquidity constraints, child and adult dependents, liquid and illiquid assets, revolving ..."
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Cited by 54 (2 self)
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Intertemporal preferences are di ¢ cult to measure. We estimate time preferences using a structural bu¤er stock consumption model and the Method of Simulated Moments. The model includes stochastic labor income, liquidity constraints, child and adult dependents, liquid and illiquid assets, revolving credit, retirement, and discount functions that allow shortrun and longrun discount rates to di¤er. Data on retirement wealth accumulation, credit card borrowing, and consumptionincome comovement identify the model. Our benchmark estimates imply a 40% shortterm annualized discount rate and a 4.3 % longterm annualized discount rate. Almost all speci
cations reject the restriction to a constant discount rate. Our quantitative results are sensitive to assumptions about the return on illiquid assets and the coe ¢ cient of relative risk aversion. When we jointly estimate the coe ¢ cient of relative risk aversion and the discount function, the shortterm discount rate is 15 % and the longterm discount rate is 3.8%.