The question is not whether intelligent machines can have any emotions, but whether machines can be intelligent without any emotions. – Marvin Minsky, (Minsky, 1986) p. 163 In every art form it is the emotional content that makes the difference between mere technical skill and true art.

A stochastic optimized-submovement model is proposed for Pitts ' law, the classic logarithmic tradeoff between the duration and spatial precision of rapid aimed movements. According to the model, an aimed movement toward a specified target region involves a primary submovement and an optional secondary corrective submovement. The submovements are assumed to be programmed such that they minimize average total movement time while maintaining a high frequency of target hits. The programming process achieves this minimization by optimally adjusting the average magnitudes and durations of noisy neuromotor force pulses used to generate the submovements. Numerous results from the literature on human motor performance may be explained in these terms. Two new experiments on rapid wrist rotations yield additional support for the stochastic optimizedsubmovement model. Experiment 1 revealed that the mean durations of primary submovements and of secondary submovements, not just average total movement times, conform to a square-root approximation of Pitts ' law derived from the model. Also, the spatial endpoints of primary submovements have standard deviations that increase linearly with average primary-submovement velocity, and the average primary-submovement velocity influences the relative frequencies of secondary submovements, as predicted by the model. During Experiment 2, these results were replicated and

Early studies of intuitive judgment and decision making conducted with the late Amos Tversky are reviewed in the context of two related concepts: an analysis of accessibility, the ease with which thoughts come to mind; a distinction between effortless intuition and deliberate reasoning. Intuitive thoughts, like percepts, are highly accessible. Determinants and consequences of accessibility help explain the central results of prospect theory, framing effects, the heuristic process of attribute substitution, and the characteristic biases that result from the substitution of nonextensional for extensional attributes. Variations in the accessibility of rules explain the occasional corrections of intuitive judgments. The study of biases is compatible with a view of intuitive thinking and decision making as generally skilled and successful.

Rationality is a complex behavioral theory that can be parsed into statements about preferences, perceptions, and process. This paper looks at the evidence on rationality that is provided by behavioral experiments, and argues that most cognitive anomalies operate through errors in perception that arise from the way information is stored, retrieved, and processed, or through errors in process that lead to formulation of choice problems as cognitive tasks that are inconsistent at least with rationality narrowly defined. The paper discusses how these cognitive anomalies influence economic behavior and measurement, and their implications for economic analysis.

ome detail more recent developments in the economic theory of choice, and modifications to this theory that are being forced by experimental evidence from cognitive psychology. I will close with a survey of statistical methods that have developed as part of the research program on economic choice behavior. Science is a cooperative enterprise, and my work on choice behavior reflects not only my own ideas, but the results of exchange and collaboration with many other scholars. 1 First, of course, is my co-laureate James Heckman, who among his many contributions pioneered the important area of dynamic discrete choice analysis. Nine other individuals who played a major role in channeling microeconometrics and choice theory toward their modern forms, and had a particularly important influence on my own work, are Zvi Griliches, L.L. Thurstone, Jacob Marschak, Duncan Luce, Danny Kahneman, Amos Tversky, Moshe Ben-Akiva, Charles Manski, and Kenneth Train. A gallery of their p

Security is both a feeling and a reality. And they’re not the same. The reality of security is mathematical, based on the probability of different risks and the effectiveness of different countermeasures. We can calculate how secure your home is from burglary, based on such factors as the crime rate in the

The relative susceptibility of individuals and groups to systematic judgmental biases is considered. An overview of the relevant empirical literature reveals no clear or general pattern. However, a theoretical analysis employing J. H. Davis's (1973) social decision scheme (SDS) model reveals that the relative magnitude of individual and group bias depends upon several factors, including group size, initial individual judgment, the magnitude of bias among individuals, the type of bias, and most of all, the group-judgment process. It is concluded that there can be no simple answer to the question, "Which are more biased, individuals or groups?, " but the SDS model offers a framework for specifying some of the conditions under which individuals are both more and less biased than groups. A great deal of research in social and cognitive psychology has been devoted to demonstrating what is probably an uncontroversial proposition: that human judgment is imperfect. What makes this work interesting and useful is that such imperfections often constitute more than random fluctuations around "rational, " prescribed, or ideal judgments. Rather, humans consistently exhibit systematic biases in their judgments. Some of

The unfolding bracket method for eliciting quantitative information in economic surveys is effective in reducing item non-response and outliers, but is vulnerable to bias induced by anchoring. To test for anchoring effects, this study introduced an experimental module in the AHEAD (Asset and Health Dynamics of the Oldest Old) panel in which the unfolding bracket (or gate) sequence varied by treatment. We find that there are strong anchoring effects in the two household variables studied, savings account balances and monthly consumption. We construct a model of anchoring that is successful in capturing much of the effects of anchoring. Thus, it appears that experimental variation in the unfolding bracket design combined with a suitable model of anchoring can be used to predict and undo the biases introduced by anchoring. These conclusions have important implications for the design of quantitative questions in current economic panels such as AHEAD and the Health and Retirement Survey (HRS), and for other applications that use gate designs, such as elicitation of willingness-to-pay by contingent valuation.

Introduction Listening to the talks presented at this meeting and seeing how the field is developing, I felt rather like the Sorcerer's Apprentice; having in a sense started all this, I am now unable to stop it or even steer it. The qualification `in a sense' only recognizes that Maxent is an idea whose time had come, and whether or not I had also come along, it would surely be recognized and used today. Several people have told me that they had the same idea at the same time, but were afraid to say so in public because it seemed such a radical idea then. As soon as Claude Shannon's work appeared in 1948, there were bound to be readers who were already familiar with the work of Gibbs and Jeffreys. For any such reader it would be a small step to reverse the usual viewpoint and see it this way: the fact that a certain probability distribution maximizes entropy subject to certain constraints representing our incomplete information, is the fundamental property which justifies use

Can people feel worse off as the options they face increase? The present studies suggest that some people—maximizers—can. Study 1 reported a Maximization Scale, which measures individual differences in desire to maximize. Seven samples revealed negative correlations between maximization and happiness, optimism, self-esteem, and life satisfaction, and positive correlations between maximization and depression, perfectionism, and regret. Study 2 found maximizers less satisfied than nonmaximizers (satisficers) with consumer decisions, and more likely to engage in social comparison. Study 3 found maximizers more adversely affected by upward social comparison. Study 4 found maximizers more sensitive to regret and less satisfied in an ultimatum bargaining game. The interaction between maximizing and choice is discussed in terms of regret, adaptation, and self-blame. Rational choice theory has tried to explain preference and choice by assuming that people are rational choosers (von Neumann & Morgenstern, 1944). According to the rational choice framework, human beings have well-ordered preferences—preferences that are essentially impervious to variations in the way the alternatives they face are described or the way in which they are