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74
Dynamic Bayesian Networks: Representation, Inference and Learning
, 2002
"... Modelling sequential data is important in many areas of science and engineering. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and Kalman filter models (KFMs) are popular for this because they are simple and flexible. For example, HMMs have been used for speech recognition and biosequence analysis, and KFMs have bee ..."
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Cited by 564 (3 self)
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Modelling sequential data is important in many areas of science and engineering. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and Kalman filter models (KFMs) are popular for this because they are simple and flexible. For example, HMMs have been used for speech recognition and biosequence analysis, and KFMs have been used for problems ranging from tracking planes and missiles to predicting the economy. However, HMMs
and KFMs are limited in their “expressive power”. Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) generalize HMMs by allowing the state space to be represented in factored form, instead of as a single discrete random variable. DBNs generalize KFMs by allowing arbitrary probability distributions, not just (unimodal) linearGaussian. In this thesis, I will discuss how to represent many different kinds of models as DBNs, how to perform exact and approximate inference in DBNs, and how to learn DBN models from sequential data.
In particular, the main novel technical contributions of this thesis are as follows: a way of representing
Hierarchical HMMs as DBNs, which enables inference to be done in O(T) time instead of O(T 3), where T is the length of the sequence; an exact smoothing algorithm that takes O(log T) space instead of O(T); a simple way of using the junction tree algorithm for online inference in DBNs; new complexity bounds on exact online inference in DBNs; a new deterministic approximate inference algorithm called factored frontier; an analysis of the relationship between the BK algorithm and loopy belief propagation; a way of
applying RaoBlackwellised particle filtering to DBNs in general, and the SLAM (simultaneous localization
and mapping) problem in particular; a way of extending the structural EM algorithm to DBNs; and a variety of different applications of DBNs. However, perhaps the main value of the thesis is its catholic presentation of the field of sequential data modelling.
Approximating probabilistic inference in Bayesian belief networks is NPhard
, 1991
"... Abstract A belief network comprises a graphical representation of dependencies between variables of a domain and a set of conditional probabilities associated with each dependency. Unless P=NP, an efficient, exact algorithm does not exist to compute probabilistic inference in belief networks. Stoch ..."
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Cited by 256 (3 self)
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Abstract A belief network comprises a graphical representation of dependencies between variables of a domain and a set of conditional probabilities associated with each dependency. Unless P=NP, an efficient, exact algorithm does not exist to compute probabilistic inference in belief networks. Stochastic simulation methods, which often improve run times, provide an alternative to exact inference algorithms. We present such a stochastic simulation algorithm 2)BNRAS that is a randomized approximation scheme. To analyze the run time, we parameterize belief networks by the dependence value PE, which is a measure of the cumulative strengths of the belief network dependencies given background evidence E. This parameterization defines the class of fdependence networks. The run time of 2)BNRAS is polynomial when f is a polynomial function. Thus, the results of this paper prove the existence of a class of belief networks for which inference approximation is polynomial and, hence, provably faster than any exact algorithm. I.
Learning Bayesian belief networks: An approach based on the MDL principle
 Computational Intelligence
, 1994
"... A new approach for learning Bayesian belief networks from raw data is presented. The approach is based on Rissanen's Minimal Description Length (MDL) principle, which is particularly well suited for this task. Our approach does not require any prior assumptions about the distribution being learned. ..."
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Cited by 188 (8 self)
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A new approach for learning Bayesian belief networks from raw data is presented. The approach is based on Rissanen's Minimal Description Length (MDL) principle, which is particularly well suited for this task. Our approach does not require any prior assumptions about the distribution being learned. In particular, our method can learn unrestricted multiplyconnected belief networks. Furthermore, unlike other approaches our method allows us to tradeo accuracy and complexity in the learned model. This is important since if the learned model is very complex (highly connected) it can be conceptually and computationally intractable. In such a case it would be preferable to use a simpler model even if it is less accurate. The MDL principle o ers a reasoned method for making this tradeo. We also show that our method generalizes previous approaches based on Kullback crossentropy. Experiments have been conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the approach. Keywords: Knowledge Acquisition � Bayes Nets � Uncertainty Reasoning. 1
Adaptive Probabilistic Networks with Hidden Variables
 Machine Learning
, 1997
"... . Probabilistic networks (also known as Bayesian belief networks) allow a compact description of complex stochastic relationships among several random variables. They are rapidly becoming the tool of choice for uncertain reasoning in artificial intelligence. In this paper, we investigate the problem ..."
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Cited by 158 (10 self)
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. Probabilistic networks (also known as Bayesian belief networks) allow a compact description of complex stochastic relationships among several random variables. They are rapidly becoming the tool of choice for uncertain reasoning in artificial intelligence. In this paper, we investigate the problem of learning probabilistic networks with known structure and hidden variables. This is an important problem, because structure is much easier to elicit from experts than numbers, and the world is rarely fully observable. We present a gradientbased algorithmand show that the gradient can be computed locally, using information that is available as a byproduct of standard probabilistic network inference algorithms. Our experimental results demonstrate that using prior knowledge about the structure, even with hidden variables, can significantly improve the learning rate of probabilistic networks. We extend the method to networks in which the conditional probability tables are described using a ...
Policy Recognition in the Abstract Hidden Markov Model
 Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research
, 2002
"... In this paper, we present a method for recognising an agent's behaviour in dynamic, noisy, uncertain domains, and across multiple levels of abstraction. We term this problem online plan recognition under uncertainty and view it generally as probabilistic inference on the stochastic process represen ..."
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Cited by 121 (16 self)
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In this paper, we present a method for recognising an agent's behaviour in dynamic, noisy, uncertain domains, and across multiple levels of abstraction. We term this problem online plan recognition under uncertainty and view it generally as probabilistic inference on the stochastic process representing the execution of the agent's plan. Our contributions in this paper are twofold. In terms of probabilistic inference, we introduce the Abstract Hidden Markov Model (AHMM), a novel type of stochastic processes, provide its dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) structure and analyse the properties of this network. We then describe an application of the RaoBlackwellised Particle Filter to the AHMM which allows us to construct an ecient, hybrid inference method for this model. In terms of plan recognition, we propose a novel plan recognition framework based on the AHMM as the plan execution model. The RaoBlackwellised hybrid inference for AHMM can take advantage of the independence properties inherent in a model of plan execution, leading to an algorithm for online probabilistic plan recognition that scales well with the number of levels in the plan hierarchy. This illustrates that while stochastic models for plan execution can be complex, they exhibit special structures which, if exploited, can lead to efficient plan recognition algorithms. We demonstrate the usefulness of the AHMM framework via a behaviour recognition system in a complex spatial environment using distributed video surveillance data.
The Challenge of Poker
 Artificial Intelligence
, 2001
"... Poker is an interesting testbed for arti cial intelligence research. It is a game of imperfect information, where multiple competing agents must deal with probabilistic knowledge, risk assessment, and possible deception, not unlike decisions made in the real world. Opponent modeling is another dicu ..."
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Cited by 109 (9 self)
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Poker is an interesting testbed for arti cial intelligence research. It is a game of imperfect information, where multiple competing agents must deal with probabilistic knowledge, risk assessment, and possible deception, not unlike decisions made in the real world. Opponent modeling is another dicult problem in decisionmaking applications, and it is essential to achieving high performance in poker. This paper describes the design considerations and architecture of the poker program Poki. In addition to methods for hand evaluation and betting strategy, Poki uses learning techniques to construct statistical models of each opponent, and dynamically adapts to exploit observed patterns and tendencies. The result is a program capable of playing reasonably strong poker, but there remains considerable research to be done to play at a worldclass level. 1
AISBN: An Adaptive Importance Sampling Algorithm for Evidential Reasoning in Large Bayesian Networks
 Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research
, 2000
"... Stochastic sampling algorithms, while an attractive alternative to exact algorithms in very large Bayesian network models, have been observed to perform poorly in evidential reasoning with extremely unlikely evidence. To address this problem, we propose an adaptive importance sampling algorithm, ..."
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Cited by 69 (4 self)
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Stochastic sampling algorithms, while an attractive alternative to exact algorithms in very large Bayesian network models, have been observed to perform poorly in evidential reasoning with extremely unlikely evidence. To address this problem, we propose an adaptive importance sampling algorithm, AISBN, that shows promising convergence rates even under extreme conditions and seems to outperform the existing sampling algorithms consistently. Three sources of this performance improvement are (1) two heuristics for initialization of the importance function that are based on the theoretical properties of importance sampling in nitedimensional integrals and the structural advantages of Bayesian networks, (2) a smooth learning method for the importance function, and (3) a dynamic weighting function for combining samples from dierent stages of the algorithm. We tested the performance of the AISBN algorithm along with two state of the art general purpose sampling algorithms, lik...
Coupled hidden Markov models for modeling interacting processes
, 1997
"... We present methods for coupling hidden Markov models (hmms) to model systems of multiple interacting processes. The resulting models have multiple state variables that are temporally coupled via matrices of conditional probabilities. We introduce a deterministic O(T (CN) 2 ) approximation for maxi ..."
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Cited by 62 (3 self)
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We present methods for coupling hidden Markov models (hmms) to model systems of multiple interacting processes. The resulting models have multiple state variables that are temporally coupled via matrices of conditional probabilities. We introduce a deterministic O(T (CN) 2 ) approximation for maximum a posterior (MAP) state estimation which enables fast classification and parameter estimation via expectation maximization. An "Nheads" dynamic programming algorithm samples from the highest probability paths through a compact state trellis, minimizing an upper bound on the cross entropy with the full (combinatoric) dynamic programming problem. The complexity is O(T (CN) 2 ) for C chains of N states apiece observing T data points, compared with O(TN 2C ) for naive (Cartesian product), exact (state clustering), and stochastic (Monte Carlo) methods applied to the same inference problem. In several experiments examining training time, model likelihoods, classification accuracy, and ro...
Variational Probabilistic Inference and the QMRDT Network
 JOURNAL OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE RESEARCH
, 1999
"... We describe a variational approximation method for efficient inference in largescale probabilistic models. Variational methods are deterministic procedures that provide approximations to marginal and conditional probabilities of interest. They provide alternatives to approximate inference method ..."
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Cited by 57 (3 self)
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We describe a variational approximation method for efficient inference in largescale probabilistic models. Variational methods are deterministic procedures that provide approximations to marginal and conditional probabilities of interest. They provide alternatives to approximate inference methods based on stochastic sampling or search. We describe a variational approach to the problem of diagnostic inference in the "Quick Medical Reference" (QMR) network. The QMR network is a largescale probabilistic graphical model built on statistical and expert knowledge. Exact probabilistic inference is infeasible in this model for all but a small set of cases. We evaluate our variational inference algorithm on a large set of diagnostic test cases, comparing the algorithm to a stateoftheart stochastic sampling method.