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72
Dynamic Bayesian Networks: Representation, Inference and Learning
, 2002
"... Modelling sequential data is important in many areas of science and engineering. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and Kalman filter models (KFMs) are popular for this because they are simple and flexible. For example, HMMs have been used for speech recognition and biosequence analysis, and KFMs have bee ..."
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Cited by 579 (3 self)
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Modelling sequential data is important in many areas of science and engineering. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and Kalman filter models (KFMs) are popular for this because they are simple and flexible. For example, HMMs have been used for speech recognition and biosequence analysis, and KFMs have been used for problems ranging from tracking planes and missiles to predicting the economy. However, HMMs
and KFMs are limited in their “expressive power”. Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) generalize HMMs by allowing the state space to be represented in factored form, instead of as a single discrete random variable. DBNs generalize KFMs by allowing arbitrary probability distributions, not just (unimodal) linearGaussian. In this thesis, I will discuss how to represent many different kinds of models as DBNs, how to perform exact and approximate inference in DBNs, and how to learn DBN models from sequential data.
In particular, the main novel technical contributions of this thesis are as follows: a way of representing
Hierarchical HMMs as DBNs, which enables inference to be done in O(T) time instead of O(T 3), where T is the length of the sequence; an exact smoothing algorithm that takes O(log T) space instead of O(T); a simple way of using the junction tree algorithm for online inference in DBNs; new complexity bounds on exact online inference in DBNs; a new deterministic approximate inference algorithm called factored frontier; an analysis of the relationship between the BK algorithm and loopy belief propagation; a way of
applying RaoBlackwellised particle filtering to DBNs in general, and the SLAM (simultaneous localization
and mapping) problem in particular; a way of extending the structural EM algorithm to DBNs; and a variety of different applications of DBNs. However, perhaps the main value of the thesis is its catholic presentation of the field of sequential data modelling.
An Introduction to MCMC for Machine Learning
, 2003
"... This purpose of this introductory paper is threefold. First, it introduces the Monte Carlo method with emphasis on probabilistic machine learning. Second, it reviews the main building blocks of modern Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation, thereby providing and introduction to the remaining papers of ..."
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Cited by 235 (2 self)
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This purpose of this introductory paper is threefold. First, it introduces the Monte Carlo method with emphasis on probabilistic machine learning. Second, it reviews the main building blocks of modern Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation, thereby providing and introduction to the remaining papers of this special issue. Lastly, it discusses new interesting research horizons.
The Bayes Net Toolbox for MATLAB
 Computing Science and Statistics
, 2001
"... The Bayes Net Toolbox (BNT) is an opensource Matlab package for directed graphical models. BNT supports many kinds of nodes (probability distributions), exact and approximate inference, parameter and structure learning, and static and dynamic models. BNT is widely used in teaching and research: the ..."
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Cited by 179 (2 self)
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The Bayes Net Toolbox (BNT) is an opensource Matlab package for directed graphical models. BNT supports many kinds of nodes (probability distributions), exact and approximate inference, parameter and structure learning, and static and dynamic models. BNT is widely used in teaching and research: the web page has received over 28,000 hits since May 2000. In this paper, we discuss a broad spectrum of issues related to graphical models (directed and undirected), and describe, at a highlevel, how BNT was designed to cope with them all. We also compare BNT to other software packages for graphical models, and to the nascent OpenBayes effort.
Hybrid Bayesian Networks for Reasoning about Complex Systems
, 2002
"... Many realworld systems are naturally modeled as hybrid stochastic processes, i.e., stochastic processes that contain both discrete and continuous variables. Examples include speech recognition, target tracking, and monitoring of physical systems. The task is usually to perform probabilistic inferen ..."
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Cited by 48 (0 self)
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Many realworld systems are naturally modeled as hybrid stochastic processes, i.e., stochastic processes that contain both discrete and continuous variables. Examples include speech recognition, target tracking, and monitoring of physical systems. The task is usually to perform probabilistic inference, i.e., infer the hidden state of the system given some noisy observations. For example, we can ask what is the probability that a certain word was pronounced given the readings of our microphone, what is the probability that a submarine is trying to surface given our sonar data, and what is the probability of a valve being open given our pressure and flow readings. Bayesian networks are
A Survey of Algorithms for RealTime Bayesian Network Inference
 In In the joint AAAI02/KDD02/UAI02 workshop on RealTime Decision Support and Diagnosis Systems
, 2002
"... As Bayesian networks are applied to more complex and realistic realworld applications, the development of more efficient inference algorithms working under realtime constraints is becoming more and more important. This paper presents a survey of various exact and approximate Bayesian network ..."
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Cited by 33 (2 self)
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As Bayesian networks are applied to more complex and realistic realworld applications, the development of more efficient inference algorithms working under realtime constraints is becoming more and more important. This paper presents a survey of various exact and approximate Bayesian network inference algorithms. In particular, previous research on realtime inference is reviewed. It provides a framework for understanding these algorithms and the relationships between them. Some important issues in realtime Bayesian networks inference are also discussed.
Looking ahead to select tutorial actions: a decisiontheoretic approach
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN EDUCATION
, 2004
"... We propose and evaluate a decisiontheoretic approach for selecting tutorial actions by looking ahead to anticipate their effects on the student and other aspects of the tutorial state. The approach uses a dynamic decision network to consider the tutor's uncertain beliefs and objectives in adap ..."
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Cited by 24 (4 self)
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We propose and evaluate a decisiontheoretic approach for selecting tutorial actions by looking ahead to anticipate their effects on the student and other aspects of the tutorial state. The approach uses a dynamic decision network to consider the tutor's uncertain beliefs and objectives in adapting to and managing the changing tutorial state. Prototype action selection engines for diverse domains calculus and elementary reading illustrate the approach. These applications employ a rich model of the tutorial state, including attributes such as the student's knowledge, focus of attention, affective state, and next action(s), along with task progress and the discourse state. For this study, neither of our action selection engines had been integrated into a complete ITS, so we used simulated students to evaluate their capabilities to select rational tutorial actions that emulate the behaviors of human tutors. We also evaluated their capability to select tutorial actions quickly enough for realworld tutoring applications.
An Importance Sampling Algorithm Based on Evidence PrePropagation
 In Proceedings of the Nineteenth Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
, 2003
"... Precision achieved by stochastic sampling algorithms for Bayesian networks typically deteriorates in face of extremely unlikely evidence. To address this problem... ..."
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Cited by 23 (4 self)
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Precision achieved by stochastic sampling algorithms for Bayesian networks typically deteriorates in face of extremely unlikely evidence. To address this problem...
Approximate counting by sampling the backtrackfree search space
 In AAAI
, 2007
"... We present a new estimator for counting the number of solutions of a Boolean satisfiability problem as a part of an importance sampling framework. The estimator uses the recently introduced SampleSearch scheme that is designed to overcome the rejection problem associated with distributions having a ..."
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Cited by 18 (5 self)
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We present a new estimator for counting the number of solutions of a Boolean satisfiability problem as a part of an importance sampling framework. The estimator uses the recently introduced SampleSearch scheme that is designed to overcome the rejection problem associated with distributions having a substantial amount of determinism. We show here that the sampling distribution of SampleSearch can be characterized as the backtrackfree distribution and propose several schemes for its computation. This allows integrating SampleSearch into the importance sampling framework for approximating the number of solutions and also allows using SampleSearch for computing a lower bound measure on the number of solutions. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates the superiority of our new approximate counting schemes against recent competing approaches.
Tree approximation for belief updating
 In Proceedings of the 18th National Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI2002
, 2002
"... The paper presents a parameterized approximation scheme for probabilistic inference. The scheme, called MiniClustering (MC), extends the partitionbased approximation offered by minibucket elimination, to tree decompositions. The benefit of this extension is that all singlevariable beliefs are co ..."
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Cited by 16 (9 self)
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The paper presents a parameterized approximation scheme for probabilistic inference. The scheme, called MiniClustering (MC), extends the partitionbased approximation offered by minibucket elimination, to tree decompositions. The benefit of this extension is that all singlevariable beliefs are computed (approximately) at once, using a twophase messagepassing process along the cluster tree. The resulting approximation scheme allows adjustable levels of accuracy and efficiency, in anytime style. Empirical evaluation against competing algorithms such as iterative belief propagation and Gibbs sampling demonstrates the potential of the MC approximation scheme for several classes of problems. Introduction and related work Probabilistic reasoning using Belief networks, computing
SampleSearch: Importance Sampling in Presence of Determinism
, 2009
"... The paper focuses on developing effective importance sampling algorithms for mixed probabilistic and deterministic graphical models. The use of importance sampling in such graphical models is problematic because it generates many useless zero weight samples which are rejected yielding an inefficient ..."
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Cited by 15 (3 self)
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The paper focuses on developing effective importance sampling algorithms for mixed probabilistic and deterministic graphical models. The use of importance sampling in such graphical models is problematic because it generates many useless zero weight samples which are rejected yielding an inefficient sampling process. To address this rejection problem, we propose the SampleSearch scheme that augments sampling with systematic constraintbased backtracking search. We characterize the bias introduced by the combination of search with sampling, and derive a weighting scheme which yields an unbiased estimate of the desired statistics (e.g. probability of evidence). When computing the weights exactly is too complex, we propose an approximation which has a weaker guarantee of asymptotic unbiasedness. We present results of an extensive empirical evaluation demonstrating that SampleSearch outperforms other schemes in presence of significant amount of determinism.