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Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A CrossSectional Test When Risk Premia Are TimeVarying
 Journal of Political Economy
, 2001
"... This paper explores the ability of conditional versions of the CAPM and the consumption CAPM—jointly the (C)CAPM—to explain the cross section of average stock returns. Central to our approach is the use of the log consumption–wealth ratio as a conditioning variable. We demonstrate that such conditio ..."
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Cited by 150 (5 self)
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This paper explores the ability of conditional versions of the CAPM and the consumption CAPM—jointly the (C)CAPM—to explain the cross section of average stock returns. Central to our approach is the use of the log consumption–wealth ratio as a conditioning variable. We demonstrate that such conditional models perform far better than unconditional specifications and about as well as the FamaFrench threefactor model on portfolios sorted by size and booktomarket characteristics. The conditional consumption CAPM can account for the difference in returns between lowbooktomarket and highbooktomarket portfolios and exhibits little evidence of residual size or booktomarket effects. We are grateful to Eugene Fama and Kenneth French for graciously providing the
Limited asset market participation and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution
 Journal of Political Economy
, 2002
"... The paper presents empirical evidence based on the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey that accounting for limited asset market participation is important for estimating the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. Differences in estimates of the EIS between asset holders and non–asset holders are lar ..."
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Cited by 142 (2 self)
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The paper presents empirical evidence based on the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey that accounting for limited asset market participation is important for estimating the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. Differences in estimates of the EIS between asset holders and non–asset holders are large and statistically significant. This is the case whether estimating the EIS on the basis of the Euler equation for stock index returns or the Euler equation for Treasury bills, in each case distinguishing between asset holders and non–asset holders as best as possible. Estimates of the EIS are around 0.3–0.4 for stockholders and around 0.8–1 for bondholders and are larger for households with larger asset holdings within these two groups. I.
Nonlinear Pricing Kernels, Kurtosis Preference, and the CrossSection of Assets Returns
 Journal of Finance
, 2002
"... This paper investigates nonlinear pricing kernels in which the risk factor is endogenously determined and preferences restrict the definition of the pricing kernel. These kernels potentially generate the empirical performance of nonlinear and multifactor models, while maintaining empirical power and ..."
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Cited by 88 (2 self)
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This paper investigates nonlinear pricing kernels in which the risk factor is endogenously determined and preferences restrict the definition of the pricing kernel. These kernels potentially generate the empirical performance of nonlinear and multifactor models, while maintaining empirical power and avoiding ad hoc specifications of factors or functional form. Our test results indicate that preferencerestricted nonlinear pricing kernels are both admissible for the cross section of returns and are able to significantly improve upon linear single and multifactor kernels. Further, the nonlinearities in the pricing kernel drive out the importance of the factors in the linear multifactor model. A PRINCIPAL IMPLICATION OF THE Capital Asset Pricing Model ~CAPM! is that the pricing kernel is linear in a single factor, the portfolio of aggregate wealth. Numerous studies over the past two decades have documented violations of this restriction. 1 In response, researchers have examined the performance of alternative models of asset prices. These models have generally fallen into two classes: ~1! multifactor models such as Ross ’ APT or Merton’s ICAPM, in which factors in addition to the market return determine asset prices; or ~2! nonparametric models, such as Bansal et al. ~1993!, Bansal and Viswanathan ~1993!, and Chapman ~1997!, in which the pricing kernel is not
Estimating Stochastic Volatility Diffusion Using Conditional Moments of Integrated Volatility
, 2000
"... We exploit the distributional information contained in highfrequency intraday data in constructing a simple conditional moment estimator for stochastic volatility diffusions. The estimator is based on the analytical solutions of the first two conditional moments for the integrated volatility, which ..."
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Cited by 59 (6 self)
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We exploit the distributional information contained in highfrequency intraday data in constructing a simple conditional moment estimator for stochastic volatility diffusions. The estimator is based on the analytical solutions of the first two conditional moments for the integrated volatility, which is effectively approximated by the quadratic variation of the process. We successfully implement the resulting GMM estimator with highfrequency fiveminute foreign exchange and equity index returns. Our simulation evidence and actual empirical results indicate that the method is very reliable and accurate. The computational speed of the procedure compares very favorably to other existing estimation methods in the literature.
An MCMC approach to classical estimation
, 2003
"... This paper studies computationally and theoretically attractive estimators called here Laplace type estimators (LTEs), which include means and quantiles of quasiposterior distributions dened as transformations of general (nonlikelihoodbased) statistical criterion functions, such as those in GMM, n ..."
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Cited by 57 (7 self)
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This paper studies computationally and theoretically attractive estimators called here Laplace type estimators (LTEs), which include means and quantiles of quasiposterior distributions dened as transformations of general (nonlikelihoodbased) statistical criterion functions, such as those in GMM, nonlinear IV, empirical likelihood, and minimum distance methods. The approach generates an alternative to classical extremum estimation and also falls outside the parametric Bayesian approach. For example, it o ers a new attractive estimation method for such important semiparametric problems as censored and instrumental quantile regression, nonlinear GMM and valueatrisk models. The LTEs are computed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, which help circumvent the computational curse of dimensionality. Alarge sample theory is obtained and illustrated for regular cases.
HabitBased Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium
, 2005
"... This paper presents a fully rational general equilibrium model that produces a timevarying exchange rate risk premium and solves the uncovered interest rate parity (U.I.P) puzzle. In this twocountry model, agents are characterized by slowmoving external habit preferences derived from Campbell & ..."
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Cited by 43 (5 self)
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This paper presents a fully rational general equilibrium model that produces a timevarying exchange rate risk premium and solves the uncovered interest rate parity (U.I.P) puzzle. In this twocountry model, agents are characterized by slowmoving external habit preferences derived from Campbell & Cochrane (1999). Endowment shocks are i.i.d and real riskfree rates are timevarying. Agents can trade across countries, but when a unit is shipped, only a fraction of the good arrives to the foreign shore. The model gives a rationale for the U.I.P puzzle: the domestic investor receives a positive exchange rate risk premium when she is more riskaverse than her foreign counterpart. Times of high riskaversion correspond to low interest rates. Thus, the domestic investor receives a positive risk premium when interest rates are lower at home than abroad. The model is both simulated and estimated. The simulation recovers the usual negative coefficient between exchange rate variations and interest rate differentials. When the iceberglike trade cost is taken into account, the exchange rate variance produced is in line with its empirical counterpart. A nonlinear estimation of the model using consumption data leads to reasonable parameters when pricing the foreign excess returns of an American investor.
Consumption risk and the cross section of expected returns
 Journal of Political Economy
, 2005
"... This paper evaluates the central insight of the consumption capital asset pricing model that an asset’s expected return is determined by its equilibrium risk to consumption. Rather than measure risk by the contemporaneous covariance of an asset’s return and consumption growth, we measure risk by the ..."
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Cited by 38 (0 self)
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This paper evaluates the central insight of the consumption capital asset pricing model that an asset’s expected return is determined by its equilibrium risk to consumption. Rather than measure risk by the contemporaneous covariance of an asset’s return and consumption growth, we measure risk by the covariance of an asset’s return and consumption growth cumulated over many quarters following the return. While contemporaneous consumption risk explains little of the variation in average returns across the 25 FamaFrench portfolios, our measure of ultimate consumption risk at a horizon of three years explains a large fraction of this variation. I.
Stock market participation, intertemporal substitution and risk aversion
 Forthcoming, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings
, 2003
"... Many of the empirical rejections of the consumption CAPM can be explained by the fact that the marginal rate of substitution between present and future consumption, which in the standard model functions as the pricing kernel for all assets for which a consumer is not at a corner, seems to vary too l ..."
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Cited by 27 (1 self)
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Many of the empirical rejections of the consumption CAPM can be explained by the fact that the marginal rate of substitution between present and future consumption, which in the standard model functions as the pricing kernel for all assets for which a consumer is not at a corner, seems to vary too little to be consistent with sensible values of the parameters. Moreover, when one considers more than one asset at a time, one typically gets strong rejections of the overidentifying restrictions implied by the model. The failure seems to be both in terms of unconditional and conditional moments. Two recent papers Attanasio et al., 2002 [henceforth ABT]; VissingJørgensen, 2002 [henceforth VJ] have shown that, if one focuses on the consumption of individuals participating in the stock market, one does not reject some implications of the model. In particular, both VJ and ABT � nd that, using the consumption of stockholders, conditional Euler equations lead to sensible preference parameters and, in the case of ABT, fail to reject the overidentifying restrictions even when considering two assets (stocks and bonds) at the same time. While these results constitute a � rst empirical success, they do not necessarily constitute a solution to the equity premium puzzle. As argued
Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution When Instruments Are Weak
"... In the instrumental variables (IV) regression model, weak instruments can lead to bias in estimators and size distortion in hypothesis tests. This paper examines how weak instruments affect the identification of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) through the linearized Euler equation ..."
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Cited by 26 (1 self)
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In the instrumental variables (IV) regression model, weak instruments can lead to bias in estimators and size distortion in hypothesis tests. This paper examines how weak instruments affect the identification of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) through the linearized Euler equation. Conventional IV methods result in an empirical puzzle that the EIS is significantly less than one while its inverse is not different from one. This paper shows that weak instruments can explain the puzzle and reports valid confidence intervals for the EIS using pivotal statistics. The EIS is less than one and not significantly different from zero for eleven developed countries.
Generalized Disappointment Aversion and Asset Prices,” NBER working paper 10107
, 2003
"... We provide an axiomatic model of preferences over atemporal risks that generalizes Gul’s disappointment aversion model by allowing risk aversion to be “first order ” at locations in the state space that do not correspond to certainty. Since the lotteries being valued by an agent in an assetpricing ..."
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Cited by 20 (3 self)
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We provide an axiomatic model of preferences over atemporal risks that generalizes Gul’s disappointment aversion model by allowing risk aversion to be “first order ” at locations in the state space that do not correspond to certainty. Since the lotteries being valued by an agent in an assetpricing context are not typically local to certainty, our generalization, when embedded in a dynamic recursive utility model, has important quantitative implications for financial markets. We show that the stateprice process, or assetpricing kernel, in a Lucastree economy in which the representative agent has generalized disappointment aversion preferences is consistent with the pricing kernel that resolves the equitypremium puzzle. In addition, we show that risk aversion in our model can be both statedependent and countercyclical, which empirical research has demonstrated is necessary for explaining observed assetpricing behavior.