Abstract not found

The high tech bubble was inflated by myths of astronomical Internet traffic growth rates. Yet although these myths were false, Internet traffic was increasing very rapidly, close to doubling each year since 1997. Moreover, it continues growing close to this rate. This rapid growth reflects a poorly understood combination of many feedback loops operating on different time scales. Evidence about past and current growth rates and their sources is presented, together with speculations about the future. The expected rapid but not astronomical growth of Internet traffic is likely to have important implications for networking technologies that are deployed and for industry structure. Backbone transport is likely to remain a commodity and be provided as a single high quality service. It is probable that backbone revenues will stay low, as the complexity, cost, and revenue and profit opportunities continue to migrate towards the edges of the network.

The public Internet is currently far smaller, in both capacity and traffic, than the switched voice network. The private line networks are considerably larger in aggregate capacity than the Internet. They are about as large as the voice network in the U.S., but carry less traffic. On the other hand, the growth rate of traffic on the public Internet, while lower than is often cited, is still about 100% per year, much higher than for traffic on other networks. Hence, if present growth trends continue, data traffic in the U.S. will overtake voice traffic around the year 2002 and will be dominated by the Internet.

Differentiated services for the Internet are undergoing intensive development. It is widely accepted that they will require usage sensitive pricing. The Paris Metro Pricing (PMP) proposal is to rely on pricing alone to provide differentiated services. PMP is the simplest differentiated services system in terms of complexity.

The popular press often extolls packet networks as much more efficient than switched voice networks in utilizing transmission lines. This impression is reinforced by the delays experienced on the Internet and the famous graphs for traffic patterns through the major exchange points on the Internet, which suggest that networks are running at full capacity. This paper shows the popular impression is incorrect; data networks are very lightly utilized compared to the telephone network. Even the backbones of the Internet are run at lower fractions (10% to 15%) of their capacity than the switched voice network (which operates at over 30% of capacity on average). Private line networks are utilized far less intensively (at 3% to 5%). Further, this situation is likely to persist. The low utilization of data networks compared to voice phone networks is not a symptom of waste. It comes from different patterns of use, lumpy capacity of transmission facilities, and the high growth rate of the indust...

The simple model on which the Internet has operated, with all packets treated equally, and charges only for access links to the network, has contributed to its explosive growth. However, there is wide dissatisfaction with the delays and losses in current transmission. Further, new services such as packet telephony require assurance of considerably better service. These factors have stimulated the development of methods for providing Quality of Service (QoS), and this will make the Internet more complicated. Differential quality will also force differential pricing, and this will further increase the complexity of the system. The solution of simply putting in more capacity is widely regarded as impractical. However, it appears that we are about to enter a period of rapidly declining transmission costs. The implications of such an environment are explored by considering models with two types of demands for data transport, differing in sensitivity to congestion. Three network configurati...

Surprisingly little is known about the Internet. Even such basic facts as the size of the networks that make up the Internet or the amount of traffic they carry are not available. This paper presents estimates of the main statistics about the size and growth of the Internet, as well as about utilization patterns. This data is then used to justify some speculative predictions about the likely evolution of data networks.

this paper, we are mainly concerned with the measurment and modeling of network delays.

* * draft ** Abstract- The open access, unlicensed or spectrum commons approach to managing shared access to RF spectrum offers many attractive benefits, especially when implemented in conjunction with and as a complement to a regime of marketbased, flexible use, tradable licensed spectrum ([Benkler02], [Lehr04], [Werbach03]). However, as a number of critics have pointed out, implementing the unlicensed model poses difficult challenges that have not been well-addressed yet by commons advocates ([Benjam03], [Faulhab05], [Goodman04], [Hazlett01]). A successful spectrum commons will not be unregulated, but it also need not be command & control by another name. This paper seeks to address some of the implementation challenges associated with managing a spectrum commons. We focus on the minimal set of features that we believe a suitable management protocol, etiquette, or framework for a spectrum commons will need to incorporate. This includes: (1) No transmit only devices; (2) Power restrictions; (3) Common channel signaling; (4) Mechanism for handling congestion and allocating resources among users/uses in times of congestion; (5) Mechanism to support enforcement (e.g., established procedures to verify protocol is in conformance); (6) Mechanism to support reversibility of policy; and (7) Protection for privacy and security. We explain why each is necessary, examine their implications for current policy, and suggest ways in which they might be implemented. We present a framework that suggests a set of design principles for the protocols that will govern a successful commons management regime. Our design rules lead us to conclude that the appropriate Protocols for a Commons will need to be more liquid ([Reed05]) than in the past: (1) Marketbased instead of C&C; (2) Decentralized/distributed; and, (3) Adaptive and flexible (Anonymous, distributed, decentralized, and locally responsive). 1

With telecommunications in a slump, the search is on for ways to re-invigorate this key industry. The main problems are clearly economic much more than technological, and many of the proposed remedies would lead to new architectures for the Internet that would provide for greater control by carriers. They would drastically reduce...