Belief networks are popular tools for encoding uncertainty in expert systems. These networks rely on inference algorithms to compute beliefs in the context of observed evidence. One established method for exact inference onbelief networks is the Probability Propagation in Trees of Clusters (PPTC) algorithm, as developed byLauritzen and Spiegelhalter and re ned by Jensen et al. [1, 2, 3] PPTC converts the belief network into a secondary structure, then computes probabilities by manipulating the secondary structure. In this document, we provide a self-contained, procedural guide to understanding and implementing PPTC. We synthesize various optimizations to PPTC that are scattered throughout the literature. We articulate undocumented, \open secrets " that are vital to producing a robust and e cient implementation of PPTC. We hope that this document makes probabilistic inference more accessible and a ordable to those without extensive prior exposure.

. A rapidly growing number of user and student modeling systems have employed numerical techniques for uncertainty management. The three major paradigms are those of Bayesian networks, the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence, and fuzzy logic. In this overview, each of the first three main sections focuses on one of these paradigms. It first introduces the basic concepts by showing how they can be applied to a relatively simple user modeling problem. It then surveys systems that have applied techniques from the paradigm to user or student modeling, characterizing each system within a common framework. The final main section discusses several aspects of the usability of these techniques for user and student modeling, such as their knowledge engineering requirements, their need for computational resources, and the communicability of their results. Key words: numerical uncertainty management, Bayesian networks, Dempster-Shafer theory, fuzzy logic, user modeling, student modeling 1. Introdu...

Abstract—We present a unified graphical model framework for describing compound codes and deriving iterative decoding algorithms. After reviewing a variety of graphical models (Markov random fields, Tanner graphs, and Bayesian networks), we derive a general distributed marginalization algorithm for functions described by factor graphs. From this general algorithm, Pearl’s belief propagation algorithm is easily derived as a special case. We point out that recently developed iterative decoding algorithms for various codes, including “turbo decoding ” of parallelconcatenated convolutional codes, may be viewed as probability propagation in a graphical model of the code. We focus on Bayesian network descriptions of codes, which give a natural input/state/output/channel description of a code and channel, and we indicate how iterative decoders can be developed for parallel- and serially-concatenated coding systems, product codes, and low-density parity-check codes. I.

This paper provides algorithms that use an information-theoretic analysis to learn Bayesian network structures from data. Based on our three-phase learning framework, we develop efficient algorithms that can effectively learn Bayesian networks, requiring only polynomial numbers of conditional independence (CI) tests in typical cases. We provide precise conditions that specify when these algorithms are guaranteed to be correct as well as empirical evidence (from real world applications and simulation tests) that demonstrates that these systems work efficiently and reliably in practice.

In this work we introduce a methodology based on Genetic Algorithms for the automatic induction of Bayesian Networks from a file containing cases and variables related to the problem. The methodology is applied to the problem of predicting survival of people after one, three and five years of being diagnosed as having malignant skin melanoma. The accuracy of the obtained model, measured in terms of the percentage of well-classified subjects, is compared to that obtained by the called Naive-Bayes. In both cases, the estimation of the model accuracy is obtained from the 10-fold cross-validation method. 1. Introduction Expert systems, one of the most developed areas in the field of Artificial Intelligence, are computer programs designed to help or replace humans beings in tasks in which the human experience and human knowledge are scarce and unreliable. Although, there are domains in which the tasks can be specifed by logic rules, other domains are characterized by an uncertainty inherent...

Evaluation-oriented information provision is a function performed by many systems that serve as personal assistants, advisors, or sales assistants. Five general tasks are distinguished which need to be addressed by such systems. For each task, techniques employed in a sample of systems are discussed, and it is shown how the lessons learned from these systems can be taken into account with a set of unified techniques that make use of well-understood concepts and principles from Multi-Attribute Utility Theory and Bayesian networks. These techniques are illustrated as realized in the dialog system PRACMA.

To improve network reliability and management in today's high-speed communication networks, we propose an intelligent system using adaptive statistical approaches. The system learns the normal behavior of the network. Deviations from the norm are detected and the information is combined in the probabilistic framework of a Bayesian network. The proposed system is thereby able to detect unknown or unseen faults. As demonstrated on real network data, this method can detect abnormal behavior before a fault actually occurs, giving the network management system (human or automated) the ability to avoid a potentially serious problem. 1 1

This paper presents an efficient algorithm for learning Bayesian belief networks from databases. The algorithm takes a database as input and constructs the belief network structure as output. The construction process is based on the computation of mutual information of attribute pairs. Given a data set that is large enough, this algorithm can generate a belief network very close to the underlying model, and at the same time, enjoys the time complexity of O N ( ) 4 on conditional independence (CI) tests. When the data set has a normal DAG-Faithful (see Section 3.2) probability distribution, the algorithm guarantees that the structure of a perfect map [Pearl, 1988] of the underlying dependency model is generated. To evaluate this algorithm, we present the experimental results on three versions of the wellknown ALARM network database, which has 37 attributes and 10,000 records. The results show that this algorithm is accurate and efficient. The proof of correctness and the analysis of c...

In this paper we present a ne_(l n [!ii ' with respect to Bayesian networks con- ogy for inducing Bayesian network structures frop3 titute the roblem of the evidence propagation and a database of cases. The methodology is based oap&lll searching for the best ordering of the system vari- the problem of the model search. The problem of shies by means of genetic algorithl{. Since his th_vidence propagation consists of once the vMproblem of finding an optimal ordea. teeuarue}rables are known, the assignment of resembles the traveling salesman p'FolUleh)ve use .... IW. ....... probablhles to the values of the rest of the van genetic operators that were developed for the latter - problem. The quality of a variable ordering is eval- ables. Cooper [4] demonstrated that this problem Mated with the algorithm K2. We present empirical results that were obtained with a simulation of the ALARM network.

This paper investigates the methods for learning predictive classifiers based on Bayesian belief networks (BN) -- primarily unrestricted Bayesian networks and Bayesian multinets. We present our algorithms for learning these classifiers, and discuss how these methods address the overfitting problem and provide a natural method for feature subset selection. Using a set of standard classification problems, we empirically evaluate the performance of various BN-based classifiers. The results show that the proposed BN and Bayes multi-net classifiers are competitive with (or superior to) the best known classifiers, based on both BN and other formalisms; and that the computational time for learning and using these classifiers is relatively small. These results argue that BN based classifiers deserve more attention in the data mining community. 1 In t roduct i on Many tasks -- including fault diagnosis, pattern recognition and forecasting -- can be viewed as classification, as each r...