Modelling sequential data is important in many areas of science and engineering. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and Kalman filter models (KFMs) are popular for this because they are simple and flexible. For example, HMMs have been used for speech recognition and bio-sequence analysis, and KFMs have been used for problems ranging from tracking planes and missiles to predicting the economy. However, HMMs and KFMs are limited in their “expressive power”. Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) generalize HMMs by allowing the state space to be represented in factored form, instead of as a single discrete random variable. DBNs generalize KFMs by allowing arbitrary probability distributions, not just (unimodal) linear-Gaussian. In this thesis, I will discuss how to represent many different kinds of models as DBNs, how to perform exact and approximate inference in DBNs, and how to learn DBN models from sequential data. In particular, the main novel technical contributions of this thesis are as follows: a way of representing Hierarchical HMMs as DBNs, which enables inference to be done in O(T) time instead of O(T 3), where T is the length of the sequence; an exact smoothing algorithm that takes O(log T) space instead of O(T); a simple way of using the junction tree algorithm for online inference in DBNs; new complexity bounds on exact online inference in DBNs; a new deterministic approximate inference algorithm called factored frontier; an analysis of the relationship between the BK algorithm and loopy belief propagation; a way of applying Rao-Blackwellised particle filtering to DBNs in general, and the SLAM (simultaneous localization and mapping) problem in particular; a way of extending the structural EM algorithm to DBNs; and a variety of different applications of DBNs. However, perhaps the main value of the thesis is its catholic presentation of the field of sequential data modelling.

Planning under uncertainty is a central problem in the study of automated sequential decision making, and has been addressed by researchers in many different fields, including AI planning, decision analysis, operations research, control theory and economics. While the assumptions and perspectives adopted in these areas often differ in substantial ways, many planning problems of interest to researchers in these fields can be modeled as Markov decision processes (MDPs) and analyzed using the techniques of decision theory. This paper presents an overview and synthesis of MDP-related methods, showing how they provide a unifying framework for modeling many classes of planning problems studied in AI. It also describes structural properties of MDPs that, when exhibited by particular classes of problems, can be exploited in the construction of optimal or approximately optimal policies or plans. Planning problems commonly possess structure in the reward and value functions used to de...

Learning, planning, and representing knowledge at multiple levels of temporal abstraction are key, longstanding challenges for AI. In this paper we consider how these challenges can be addressed within the mathematical framework of reinforcement learning and Markov decision processes (MDPs). We extend the usual notion of action in this framework to include options---closed-loop policies for taking action over a period of time. Examples of options include picking up an object, going to lunch, and traveling to a distant city, as well as primitive actions such as muscle twitches and joint torques. Overall, we show that options enable temporally abstract knowledge and action to be included in the reinforcement learning framework in a natural and general way. In particular, we show that options may be used interchangeably with primitive actions in planning methods such as dynamic programming and in learning methods such as Q-learning.

This paper presents a new approach to hierarchical reinforcement learning based on decomposing the target Markov decision process (MDP) into a hierarchy of smaller MDPs and decomposing the value function of the target MDP into an additive combination of the value functions of the smaller MDPs. The decomposition, known as the MAXQ decomposition, has both a procedural semantics---as a subroutine hierarchy---and a declarative semantics---as a representation of the value function of a hierarchical policy. MAXQ unifies and extends previous work on hierarchical reinforcement learning by Singh, Kaelbling, and Dayan and Hinton. It is based on the assumption that the programmer can identify useful subgoals and define subtasks that achieve these subgoals. By defining such subgoals, the programmer constrains the set of policies that need to be considered during reinforcement learning. The MAXQ value function decomposition can represent the value function of any policy that is consisten...

A preliminary unedited version of this paper was incorrectly published as part of Volume

actions, or macro-actions, in the solution of Markov decision processes. Unlike current models that combine both primitive actions and macro-actions and leave the state space unchanged, we propose a hierarchical model (using an abstract MDP) that works with macro-actions only, and that significantly reduces the size of the state space. This is achieved by treating macroactions as local policies that act in certain regions MDP to those at the boundaries of regions. The abstract MDP approximates the original and can be solved more efficiently. We discuss several ways in which macro-actions can be generated to ensure good solution quality. Finally, we consider ways in which macro-actions can be reused to solve multiple, related MDPs; and we show that this can justify the computational overhead of macro-action generation. 1

This paper presents a new approach to hierarchical reinforcement learning based on the MAXQ decomposition of the value function. The MAXQ decomposition has both a procedural semantics---as a subroutine hierarchy---and a declarative semantics---as a representation of the value function of a hierarchical policy. MAXQ unifies and extends previous work on hierarchical reinforcement learning by Singh, Kaelbling, and Dayan and Hinton. Conditions under which the MAXQ decomposition can represent the optimal value function are derived. The paper defines a hierarchical Q learning algorithm, proves its convergence, and shows experimentally that it can learn much faster than ordinary "flat" Q learning. Finally, the paper discusses some interesting issues that arise in hierarchical reinforcement learning including the hierarchical credit assignment problem and non-hierarchical execution of the MAXQ hierarchy. 1 Introduction Hierarchical approaches to reinforcement learning (RL) problems promise ma...

We proposea framework for robot programming which allows the seamless integration of explicit agent programming with decision-theoretic planning. Specifically, the DTGolog model allows one to partially specify a control program in a highlevel, logical language, and provides an interpreter that, given a logical axiomatization of a domain, will determine the optimal completion of that program (viewed as a Markov decision process). We demonstrate the utility of this model with results obtained in an office delivery robotics domain. 1 Introduction The construction of autonomous agents, such as mobile robots or software agents, is paramount in artificial intelligence, with considerable research devoted to methods that will ease the burden of designing controllers for such agents. There are two main ways in which the conceptual complexity of devising controllers can be managed. The first is to provide languages with which a programmer can specify a control program with relative eas...

In this paper, we present a method for recognising an agent's behaviour in dynamic, noisy, uncertain domains, and across multiple levels of abstraction. We term this problem on-line plan recognition under uncertainty and view it generally as probabilistic inference on the stochastic process representing the execution of the agent's plan. Our contributions in this paper are twofold. In terms of probabilistic inference, we introduce the Abstract Hidden Markov Model (AHMM), a novel type of stochastic processes, provide its dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) structure and analyse the properties of this network. We then describe an application of the Rao-Blackwellised Particle Filter to the AHMM which allows us to construct an ecient, hybrid inference method for this model. In terms of plan recognition, we propose a novel plan recognition framework based on the AHMM as the plan execution model. The Rao-Blackwellised hybrid inference for AHMM can take advantage of the independence properties inherent in a model of plan execution, leading to an algorithm for online probabilistic plan recognition that scales well with the number of levels in the plan hierarchy. This illustrates that while stochastic models for plan execution can be complex, they exhibit special structures which, if exploited, can lead to efficient plan recognition algorithms. We demonstrate the usefulness of the AHMM framework via a behaviour recognition system in a complex spatial environment using distributed video surveillance data.

We present an expressive agent design language for reinforcement learning that allows the user to constrain the policies considered by the learning process.The language includes standard features such as parameterized subroutines, temporary interrupts, aborts, and memory variables, but also allows for unspecified choices in the agent program. For learning that which isn’t specified, we present provably convergent learning algorithms. We demonstrate by example that agent programs written in the language are concise as well as modular. This facilitates state abstraction and the transferability of learned skills. 1