We consider the problem of selecting grouped variables (factors) for accurate predic-tion in regression. Such a problem arises naturally in many practical situations with the multi-factor ANOVA problem as the most important and well known example. Instead of selecting factors by stepwise backward elimination, we focus on estimation accuracy and consider extensions of the LASSO, the LARS, and the nonnegative garrote for factor selection. The LASSO, the LARS, and the nonnegative garrote are recently proposed regression methods that can be used to select individual variables. We study and propose efficient algorithms for the extensions of these methods for factor selection, and show that these extensions give superior performance to the traditional stepwise backward elimination method in factor selection problems. We study the similarities and the differences among these methods. Simulations and real examples are used to illustrate the methods.

This paper discusses Bayesian methods for multiple shrinkage estimation in wavelets. Wavelets are used in applications for data denoising, via shrinkage of the coefficients towards zero, and for data compression, by shrinkage and setting small coefficients to zero. We approach wavelet shrinkage by using Bayesian hierarchical models, assigning a positive prior probability to the wavelet coefficients being zero. The resulting estimator for the wavelet coefficients is a multiple shrinkage estimator that exhibits a wide variety of nonlinear shrinkage patterns. We discuss fast computational implementations, with a focus on easy-to-compute analytic approximations as well as importance sampling and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Multiple shrinkage estimators prove to have excellent mean squared error performance in reconstructing standard test functions. We demonstrate this in simulated test examples, comparing various implementations of multiple shrinkage to commonly used shrinkage rules. Finally, we illustrate our approach with an application to the so-called "glint" data.

this paper, is that with F =2logp. This choice was proposed by Foster &G eorge (1994) where it was called the Risk Inflation Criterion (RIC) because it asymptotically minimises the maximum predictive risk inflation due to selection when X is orthogonal. This choice and its minimax property were also discovered independently by Donoho & Johnstone (1994) in the wavelet regression context, where they refer to it as the universal hard thresholding rule

In contrast to a posterior analysis given a particular sampling model, posterior model probabilities in the context of model uncertainty are typically rather sensitive to the specification of the prior. In particular, “diffuse” priors on model-specific parameters can lead to quite unexpected consequences. Here we focus on the practically relevant situation where we need to entertain a (large) number of sampling models and we have (or wish to use) little or no subjective prior information. We aim at providing an “automatic” or “benchmark” prior structure that can be used in such cases. We focus on the Normal linear regression model with uncertainty in the choice of regressors. We propose a partly noninformative prior structure related to a Natural Conjugate g-prior specification, where the amount of subjective information requested from the user is limited to the choice of a single scalar hyperparameter g0j. The consequences of different choices for g0j are examined. We investigate theoretical properties, such as consistency of the implied Bayesian procedure. Links with classical information criteria are provided. More importantly, we examine the finite sample implications of several choices of g0j in a simulation study. The use of the MC3 algorithm of Madigan and York (1995), combined with efficient coding in Fortran, makes it feasible to conduct large simulations. In addition to posterior criteria, we shall also compare the predictive performance of different priors. A classic example concerning the economics of crime will also be provided and contrasted with results in the literature. The main findings of the paper will lead us to propose a “benchmark” prior specification in a linear regression context with model uncertainty.

In principle, the Bayesian approach to model selection is straightforward. Prior probability distributions are used to describe the uncertainty surrounding all unknowns. After observing the data, the posterior distribution provides a coherent post data summary of the remaining uncertainty which is relevant for model selection. However, the practical implementation of this approach often requires carefully tailored priors and novel posterior calculation methods. In this article, we illustrate some of the fundamental practical issues that arise for two different model selection problems: the variable selection problem for the linear model and the CART model selection problem.

The so-called denoising problem, relative to normal models for noise, is formalized such that `noise' is defined as the incompressible part in the data while the compressible part defines the meaningful information bearing signal. Such a decomposition is effected by minimization of the ideal code length, called for by the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle, and obtained by an application of the normalized maximum likelihood technique to the primary parameters, their range, and their number. For any orthonormal regression matrix, such as defined by wavelet transforms, the minimization can be done with a threshold for the squared coefficients resulting from the expansion of the data sequence in the basis vectors defined by the matrix. keywords: linear regression, wavelet transforms, threshold, stochastic complexity, Kolmogorov sufficient statistics 1 Introduction Intuitively speaking the so-called `denoising' problem is to separate an observed data sequence x 1 ; x 2 ; ...

Bayesian methods based on hierarchical mixture models have demonstrated excellent mean squared error properties in constructing data dependent shrinkage estimators in wavelets, however, subjective elicitation of the hyperparameters is challenging. In this chapter we use an Empirical Bayes approach to estimate the hyperparameters for each level of the wavelet decomposition, bypassing the usual difficulty of hyperparameter specification in the hierarchical model. The EB approach is computationally competitive with standard methods and offers improved MSE performance over several Bayes and classical estimators in a wide variety of examples.

Abstract. Technological innovations have revolutionized the process of scientific research and knowledge discovery. The availability of massive data and challenges from frontiers of research and development have reshaped statistical thinking, data analysis and theoretical studies. The challenges of high-dimensionality arise in diverse fields of sciences and the humanities, ranging from computational biology and health studies to financial engineering and risk management. In all of these fields, variable selection and feature extraction are crucial for knowledge discovery. We first give a comprehensive overview of statistical challenges with high dimensionality in these diverse disciplines. We then approach the problem of variable selection and feature extraction using a unified framework: penalized likelihood methods. Issues relevant to the choice of penalty functions are addressed. We demonstrate that for a host of statistical problems, as long as the dimensionality is not excessively large, we can estimate the model parameters as well as if the best model is known in advance. The persistence property in risk minimization is also addressed. The applicability of such a theory and method to diverse statistical problems is demonstrated. Other related problems with high-dimensionality are also discussed.

The problem of variable selection is one of the most pervasive model selection problems in statistical applications. Often referred to as the problem of subset selection, it arises when one wants to model the relationship between a variable of interest and a subset of potential explanatory variables or predictors, but there is uncertainty about which subset to use. This vignette reviews some of the key developments which have led to the wide variety of approaches for this problem. 1

We predict the onset of personal bankruptcy using least squares regression. Although well publicized, only 2,244 bankruptcies occur in our data set of 2.9 million months of credit-card activity. We use stepwise selection to find predictors from a mix of payment history, debt load, demographics, and their interactions. This combination of rare responses and over 67,000 possible predictors leads to a challenging modeling question: How does one separate coincidental from useful predictors? We show that three modifications turn stepwise regression into an effective methodology for predicting bankruptcy. Our version of stepwise regression (1) organizes calculations to accommodate interactions, (2) exploits modern decision theoretic criteria to choose predictors, and (3) conservatively estimates p-values to handle sparse data and a binary response. Omitting any one of these leads to poor performance. A final step in our procedure calibrates regression predictions. With these modifications, stepwise regression predicts bankruptcy as well, if not better, than recently developed data-mining tools. When sorted, the largest 14,000 resulting predictions hold 1000 of the 1800 bankruptcies hidden in a validation sample of 2.3 million observations. If the cost of missing a bankruptcy is 200 times that of a false positive, our predictions incur less than 2/3 of the costs of classification errors produced by the tree-based classifier C4.5. Key Phrases: AIC, Cp, Bonferroni, calibration, hard thresholding, risk inflation criterion (RIC),