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174
Bayesian Model Averaging for Linear Regression Models
 Journal of the American Statistical Association
, 1997
"... We consider the problem of accounting for model uncertainty in linear regression models. Conditioning on a single selected model ignores model uncertainty, and thus leads to the underestimation of uncertainty when making inferences about quantities of interest. A Bayesian solution to this problem in ..."
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Cited by 301 (15 self)
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We consider the problem of accounting for model uncertainty in linear regression models. Conditioning on a single selected model ignores model uncertainty, and thus leads to the underestimation of uncertainty when making inferences about quantities of interest. A Bayesian solution to this problem involves averaging over all possible models (i.e., combinations of predictors) when making inferences about quantities of
Approaches for Bayesian variable selection
 Statistica Sinica
, 1997
"... Abstract: This paper describes and compares various hierarchical mixture prior formulations of variable selection uncertainty in normal linear regression models. These include the nonconjugate SSVS formulation of George and McCulloch (1993), as well as conjugate formulations which allow for analytic ..."
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Cited by 202 (6 self)
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Abstract: This paper describes and compares various hierarchical mixture prior formulations of variable selection uncertainty in normal linear regression models. These include the nonconjugate SSVS formulation of George and McCulloch (1993), as well as conjugate formulations which allow for analytical simplification. Hyperparameter settings which base selection on practical significance, and the implications of using mixtures with point priors are discussed. Computational methods for posterior evaluation and exploration are considered. Rapid updating methods are seen to provide feasible methods for exhaustive evaluation using Gray Code sequencing in moderately sized problems, and fast Markov Chain Monte Carlo exploration in large problems. Estimation of normalization constants is seen to provide improved posterior estimates of individual model probabilities and the total visited probability. Various procedures are illustrated on simulated sample problems and on a real problem concerning the construction of financial index tracking portfolios.
Nonparametric regression using Bayesian variable selection
 Journal of Econometrics
, 1996
"... This paper estimates an additive model semiparametrically, while automatically selecting the significant independent variables and the app~opriatc power transformation of the dependent variable. The nonlinear variables arc modeled as regression splincs, with significant knots selected fiom a large ..."
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Cited by 202 (16 self)
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This paper estimates an additive model semiparametrically, while automatically selecting the significant independent variables and the app~opriatc power transformation of the dependent variable. The nonlinear variables arc modeled as regression splincs, with significant knots selected fiom a large number of candidate knots. The estimation is made robust by modeling the errors as a mixture of normals. A Bayesian approach is used to select the significant knots, the power transformation, and to identify oatliers using the Gibbs sampler to curry out the computation. Empirical evidence is given that the sampler works well on both simulated and real examples and that in the univariate case it compares faw)rably with a kernelweighted local linear smoother, The variable selection algorithm in the paper is substantially fasler than previous Bayesian variable sclcclion algorithms. K('I ' word~': Additive nlodel, Pov¢¢r Iransformalio:l: Robust cslinlalion
Calibration and Empirical Bayes Variable Selection
 Biometrika
, 1997
"... this paper, is that with F =2logp. This choice was proposed by Foster &G eorge (1994) where it was called the Risk Inflation Criterion (RIC) because it asymptotically minimises the maximum predictive risk inflation due to selection when X is orthogonal. This choice and its minimax property were ..."
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Cited by 172 (21 self)
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this paper, is that with F =2logp. This choice was proposed by Foster &G eorge (1994) where it was called the Risk Inflation Criterion (RIC) because it asymptotically minimises the maximum predictive risk inflation due to selection when X is orthogonal. This choice and its minimax property were also discovered independently by Donoho & Johnstone (1994) in the wavelet regression context, where they refer to it as the universal hard thresholding rule
Multiple Shrinkage and Subset Selection in Wavelets
, 1997
"... This paper discusses Bayesian methods for multiple shrinkage estimation in wavelets. Wavelets are used in applications for data denoising, via shrinkage of the coefficients towards zero, and for data compression, by shrinkage and setting small coefficients to zero. We approach wavelet shrinkage by u ..."
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Cited by 141 (16 self)
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This paper discusses Bayesian methods for multiple shrinkage estimation in wavelets. Wavelets are used in applications for data denoising, via shrinkage of the coefficients towards zero, and for data compression, by shrinkage and setting small coefficients to zero. We approach wavelet shrinkage by using Bayesian hierarchical models, assigning a positive prior probability to the wavelet coefficients being zero. The resulting estimator for the wavelet coefficients is a multiple shrinkage estimator that exhibits a wide variety of nonlinear shrinkage patterns. We discuss fast computational implementations, with a focus on easytocompute analytic approximations as well as importance sampling and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Multiple shrinkage estimators prove to have excellent mean squared error performance in reconstructing standard test functions. We demonstrate this in simulated test examples, comparing various implementations of multiple shrinkage to commonly used shrinkage rules. Finally, we illustrate our approach with an application to the socalled "glint" data.
Model Uncertainty in CrossCountry Growth Regressions
 Journal of Applied Econometrics
, 2001
"... We investigate the issue of model uncertainty in crosscountry growth regressions using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). We find that the posterior probability is spread widely among many models, suggesting the superiority of BMA over choosing any single model. Outofsample predictive results suppor ..."
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Cited by 123 (4 self)
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We investigate the issue of model uncertainty in crosscountry growth regressions using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). We find that the posterior probability is spread widely among many models, suggesting the superiority of BMA over choosing any single model. Outofsample predictive results support this claim. In contrast to Levine and Renelt (1992), our results broadly support the more ‘optimistic ’ conclusion of SalaiMartin (1997b), namely that some variables are important regressors for explaining crosscountry growth patterns. However, care should be taken in the methodology employed. The approach proposed here is firmly grounded in statistical theory and immediately leads to posterior and predictive inference. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 1.
The practical implementation of Bayesian model selection
 Institute of Mathematical Statistics
, 2001
"... In principle, the Bayesian approach to model selection is straightforward. Prior probability distributions are used to describe the uncertainty surrounding all unknowns. After observing the data, the posterior distribution provides a coherent post data summary of the remaining uncertainty which is r ..."
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Cited by 116 (3 self)
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In principle, the Bayesian approach to model selection is straightforward. Prior probability distributions are used to describe the uncertainty surrounding all unknowns. After observing the data, the posterior distribution provides a coherent post data summary of the remaining uncertainty which is relevant for model selection. However, the practical implementation of this approach often requires carefully tailored priors and novel posterior calculation methods. In this article, we illustrate some of the fundamental practical issues that arise for two different model selection problems: the variable selection problem for the linear model and the CART model selection problem.
Fast approximate energy minimization with label costs
, 2010
"... The αexpansion algorithm [7] has had a significant impact in computer vision due to its generality, effectiveness, and speed. Thus far it can only minimize energies that involve unary, pairwise, and specialized higherorder terms. Our main contribution is to extend αexpansion so that it can simult ..."
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Cited by 104 (8 self)
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The αexpansion algorithm [7] has had a significant impact in computer vision due to its generality, effectiveness, and speed. Thus far it can only minimize energies that involve unary, pairwise, and specialized higherorder terms. Our main contribution is to extend αexpansion so that it can simultaneously optimize “label costs ” as well. An energy with label costs can penalize a solution based on the set of labels that appear in it. The simplest special case is to penalize the number of labels in the solution. Our energy is quite general, and we prove optimality bounds for our algorithm. A natural application of label costs is multimodel fitting, and we demonstrate several such applications in vision: homography detection, motion segmentation, and unsupervised image segmentation. Our C++/MATLAB implementation is publicly available.
Optimal Predictive Model Selection
 Ann. Statist
, 2002
"... Often the goal of model selection is to choose a model for future prediction, and it is natural to measure the accuracy of a future prediction by squared error loss. ..."
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Cited by 88 (3 self)
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Often the goal of model selection is to choose a model for future prediction, and it is natural to measure the accuracy of a future prediction by squared error loss.
Predictive Model Selection
 Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Ser. B
, 1995
"... this article we propose three criteria that can be used to address model selection. These emphasize observables rather than parameters and are based on a certain Bayesian predictive density. They have a unifying basis that is simple and interpretable,are free of asymptotic de#nitions,and allow the i ..."
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Cited by 87 (5 self)
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this article we propose three criteria that can be used to address model selection. These emphasize observables rather than parameters and are based on a certain Bayesian predictive density. They have a unifying basis that is simple and interpretable,are free of asymptotic de#nitions,and allow the incorporation of prior information. Moreover,two of these criteria are readily calibrated.