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483
The performance of mutual funds in the period 19451964
 Journal of Finance
, 1968
"... In this paper I derive a riskadjusted measure of portfolio performance (now known as "Jensen's Alpha") that estimates how much a manager's forecasting ability contributes to the fund's returns. The measure is based on the theory of the pricing of capital assets by Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965a) and ..."
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Cited by 276 (0 self)
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In this paper I derive a riskadjusted measure of portfolio performance (now known as "Jensen's Alpha") that estimates how much a manager's forecasting ability contributes to the fund's returns. The measure is based on the theory of the pricing of capital assets by Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965a) and Treynor (Undated). I apply the measure to estimate the predictive ability of 115 mutual fund managers in the period 19451964—that is their ability to earn returns which are higher than those we would expect given the level of risk of each of the portfolios. The foundations of the model and the properties of the performance measure suggested here are discussed in Section II. The evidence on mutual fund performance indicates not only that these 115 mutual funds were on average not able to predict security prices well enough to outperform a buythemarketandhold policy, but also that there is very little evidence that any individual fund was able to do significantly better than that which we expected from mere random chance. It is also important to note that these conclusions hold even when we measure the fund returns gross of management expenses (that is assume their bookkeeping, research, and other expenses except brokerage commissions were obtained free). Thus on average the funds apparently were not quite successful enough in their trading activities to recoup even their brokerage expenses. Keywords: Jensen's Alpha, mutual fund performance, riskadjusted returns, forecasting ability, predictive ability.
Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility
, 2002
"... this paper is built. First, although raw returns are clearly leptokurtic, returns standardized by realized volatilities are approximately Gaussian. Second, although the distributions of realized volatilities are clearly rightskewed, the distributions of the logarithms of realized volatilities are a ..."
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Cited by 265 (34 self)
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this paper is built. First, although raw returns are clearly leptokurtic, returns standardized by realized volatilities are approximately Gaussian. Second, although the distributions of realized volatilities are clearly rightskewed, the distributions of the logarithms of realized volatilities are approximately Gaussian. Third, the longrun dynamics of realized logarithmic volatilities are well approximated by a fractionallyintegrated longmemory process. Motivated by the three ABDL empirical regularities, we proceed to estimate and evaluate a multivariate model for the logarithmic realized volatilities: a fractionallyintegrated Gaussian vector autoregression (VAR) . Importantly, our approach explicitly permits measurement errors in the realized volatilities. Comparing the resulting volatility forecasts to those obtained from currently popular daily volatility models and more complicated highfrequency models, we find that our simple Gaussian VAR forecasts generally produce superior forecasts. Furthermore, we show that, given the theoretically motivated and empirically plausible assumption of normally distributed returns conditional on the realized volatilities, the resulting lognormalnormal mixture forecast distribution provides conditionally wellcalibrated density forecasts of returns, from which we obtain accurate estimates of conditional return quantiles. In the remainder of this paper, we proceed as follows. We begin in section 2 by formally developing the relevant quadratic variation theory within a standard frictionless arbitragefree multivariate pricing environment. In section 3 we discuss the practical construction of realized volatilities from highfrequency foreign exchange returns. Next, in section 4 we summarize the salient distributional features of r...
Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test
 REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES
, 1988
"... In this article we test the random walk hypothesis for weekly stock market returns by comparing variance estimators derived from data sampled at different frequencies. The random walk model is strongly rejected for the entire sample period (19621985) and for all subperiod for a variety of aggrega ..."
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Cited by 226 (13 self)
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In this article we test the random walk hypothesis for weekly stock market returns by comparing variance estimators derived from data sampled at different frequencies. The random walk model is strongly rejected for the entire sample period (19621985) and for all subperiod for a variety of aggregate returns indexes and sizesorted portofolios. Although the rejections are due largely to the behavior of small stocks, they cannot be attributed completely to the effects of infrequent trading or timevarying volatilities. Moreover, the rejection of the random walk for weekly returns does not support a meanreverting model of asset prices.
Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues
 Quantitative Finance
, 2001
"... We present a set of stylized empirical facts emerging from the statistical analysis of price variations in various types of financial markets. We first discuss some general issues common to all statistical studies of financial time series. Various statistical properties of asset returns are then des ..."
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Cited by 149 (2 self)
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We present a set of stylized empirical facts emerging from the statistical analysis of price variations in various types of financial markets. We first discuss some general issues common to all statistical studies of financial time series. Various statistical properties of asset returns are then described: distributional properties, tail properties and extreme fluctuations, pathwise regularity, linear and nonlinear dependence of returns in time and across stocks. Our description emphasizes properties common to a wide variety of markets and instruments. We then show how these statistical properties invalidate many of the common statistical approaches used to study financial data sets and examine some of the statistical problems encountered in each case.
HeavyTailed Phenomena in Satisfiability and Constraint Satisfaction Problems
 J. of Autom. Reasoning
, 2000
"... Abstract. We study the runtime distributions of backtrack procedures for propositional satisfiability and constraint satisfaction. Such procedures often exhibit a large variability in performance. Our study reveals some intriguing properties of such distributions: They are often characterized by ver ..."
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Cited by 148 (27 self)
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Abstract. We study the runtime distributions of backtrack procedures for propositional satisfiability and constraint satisfaction. Such procedures often exhibit a large variability in performance. Our study reveals some intriguing properties of such distributions: They are often characterized by very long tails or “heavy tails”. We will show that these distributions are best characterized by a general class of distributions that can have infinite moments (i.e., an infinite mean, variance, etc.). Such nonstandard distributions have recently been observed in areas as diverse as economics, statistical physics, and geophysics. They are closely related to fractal phenomena, whose study was introduced by Mandelbrot. We also show how random restarts can effectively eliminate heavytailed behavior. Furthermore, for harder problem instances, we observe long tails on the lefthand side of the distribution, which is indicative of a nonnegligible fraction of relatively short, successful runs. A rapid restart strategy eliminates heavytailed behavior and takes advantage of short runs, significantly reducing expected solution time. We demonstrate speedups of up to two orders of magnitude on SAT and CSP encodings of hard problems in planning, scheduling, and circuit synthesis. Key words: satisfiability, constraint satisfaction, heavy tails, backtracking 1.
A JumpDiffusion Model for Option Pricing
 Management Science
, 2002
"... Brownian motion and normal distribution have been widely used in the Black–Scholes optionpricing framework to model the return of assets. However, two puzzles emerge from many empirical investigations: the leptokurtic feature that the return distribution of assets may have a higher peak and two (as ..."
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Cited by 114 (3 self)
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Brownian motion and normal distribution have been widely used in the Black–Scholes optionpricing framework to model the return of assets. However, two puzzles emerge from many empirical investigations: the leptokurtic feature that the return distribution of assets may have a higher peak and two (asymmetric) heavier tails than those of the normal distribution, and an empirical phenomenon called “volatility smile ” in option markets. To incorporate both of them and to strike a balance between reality and tractability, this paper proposes, for the purpose of option pricing, a double exponential jumpdiffusion model. In particular, the model is simple enough to produce analytical solutions for a variety of optionpricing problems, including call and put options, interest rate derivatives, and pathdependent options. Equilibrium analysis and a psychological interpretation of the model are also presented.
Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets
 Journal of Finance
, 1991
"... After the stock market crash of October 19, 1987, interest in nonlinear dynamics, especially deterministic chaotic dynamics, has increased in both the financial press and the academic literature. This has come about because the frequency of large moves in stock markets is greater than would be expec ..."
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Cited by 106 (3 self)
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After the stock market crash of October 19, 1987, interest in nonlinear dynamics, especially deterministic chaotic dynamics, has increased in both the financial press and the academic literature. This has come about because the frequency of large moves in stock markets is greater than would be expected
Hyperbolic Distributions in Finance
 BERNOULLI
, 1995
"... Distributional assumptions for the returns on the underlying assets play a key role in valuation theories for derivative securities. Based on a data set consisting of daily prices of the 30 DAX shares over a threeyear period, we investigate the distributional form of compound returns. After perform ..."
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Cited by 92 (8 self)
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Distributional assumptions for the returns on the underlying assets play a key role in valuation theories for derivative securities. Based on a data set consisting of daily prices of the 30 DAX shares over a threeyear period, we investigate the distributional form of compound returns. After performing a number of statistical tests, it becomes clear that some of the standard assumptions cannot be justified. Instead, we introduce the class of hyperbolic distributions which can be fitted to the empirical returns with high accuracy. Two models based on hyperbolic L'evy motion are discussed. By studying the Esscher transform of the process with hyperbolic returns, we derive a valuation formula for derivative securities. The result suggests a correction of standard BlackScholes pricing, especially for options close to expiration.