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A rational analysis of the selection task as optimal data selection
 67 – 215535 Deliverable 4.1
, 1994
"... Human reasoning in hypothesistesting tasks like Wason's (1966, 1968) selection task has been depicted as prone to systematic biases. However, performance on this task has been assessed against a now outmoded falsificationist philosophy of science. Therefore, the experimental data is reassessed in t ..."
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Cited by 160 (8 self)
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Human reasoning in hypothesistesting tasks like Wason's (1966, 1968) selection task has been depicted as prone to systematic biases. However, performance on this task has been assessed against a now outmoded falsificationist philosophy of science. Therefore, the experimental data is reassessed in the light of a Bayesian model of optimal data selection in inductive hypothesis testing. The model provides a rational analysis (Anderson, 1990) of the selection task that fits well with people's performance on both abstract and thematic versions of the task. The model suggests that reasoning in these tasks may be rational rather than subject to systematic bias. Over the past 30 years, results in the psychology of reasoning have raised doubts about human rationality. The assumption of human rationality has a long history. Aristotle took the capacity for rational thought to be the defining characteristic of human beings, the capacity that separated us from the animals. Descartes regarded the ability to use language and to reason as the hallmarks of the mental that separated it from the merely physical. Many contemporary philosophers of mind also appeal to a basic principle of rationality in accounting for everyday, folk psychological explanation whereby we explain each other's behavior in terms of our beliefs and desires (Cherniak, 1986; Cohen, 1981; Davidson, 1984; Dennett, 1987; but see Stich, 1990). These philosophers, both ancient and modern, share a common view of rationality: To be rational is to reason according to rules (Brown, 1989). Logic and mathematics provide the normative rules that tell us how we should reason. Rationality therefore seems to demand that the human cognitive system embodies the rules of logic and mathematics. However, results in the psychology of reasoning appear to show that people do not reason according to these rules. In both deductive (Evans, 1982, 1989;
Rationality and its Roles in Reasoning
 Computational Intelligence
, 1994
"... The economic theory of rationality promises to equal mathematical logic in its importance for the mechanization of reasoning. We survey the growing literature on how the basic notions of probability, utility, and rational choice, coupled with practical limitations on information and resources, in ..."
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Cited by 109 (4 self)
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The economic theory of rationality promises to equal mathematical logic in its importance for the mechanization of reasoning. We survey the growing literature on how the basic notions of probability, utility, and rational choice, coupled with practical limitations on information and resources, influence the design and analysis of reasoning and representation systems. 1 Introduction People make judgments of rationality all the time, usually in criticizing someone else's thoughts or deeds as irrational, or in defending their own as rational. Artificial intelligence researchers construct systems and theories to perform or describe rational thought and action, criticizing and defending these systems and theories in terms similar to but more formal than those of the man or woman on the street. Judgments of human rationality commonly involve several different conceptions of rationality, including a logical conception used to judge thoughts, and an economic one used to judge actions or...
Improving statistical machine translation using word sense disambiguation
 In The 2007 Joint Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing and Computational Natural Language Learning (EMNLPCoNLL 2007
, 2007
"... We show for the first time that incorporating the predictions of a word sense disambiguation system within a typical phrasebased statistical machine translation (SMT) model consistently improves translation quality across all three different IWSLT ChineseEnglish test sets, as well as producing sta ..."
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Cited by 95 (6 self)
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We show for the first time that incorporating the predictions of a word sense disambiguation system within a typical phrasebased statistical machine translation (SMT) model consistently improves translation quality across all three different IWSLT ChineseEnglish test sets, as well as producing statistically significant improvements on the larger NIST ChineseEnglish MT task— and moreover never hurts performance on any test set, according not only to BLEU but to all eight most commonly used automatic evaluation metrics. Recent work has challenged the assumption that word sense disambiguation (WSD) systems are useful for SMT. Yet SMT translation quality still obviously suffers from inaccurate lexical choice. In this paper, we address this problem by investigating a new strategy for integrating WSD into an SMT system, that performs fully phrasal multiword disambiguation. Instead of directly incorporating a Sensevalstyle WSD system, we redefine the WSD task to match the exact same phrasal translation disambiguation task faced by phrasebased SMT systems. Our results provide the first known empirical evidence that lexical semantics are indeed useful for SMT, despite claims to the contrary.
Computation at the onset of chaos
 The Santa Fe Institute, Westview
, 1988
"... Computation at levels beyond storage and transmission of information appears in physical systems at phase transitions. We investigate this phenomenon using minimal computational models of dynamical systems that undergo a transition to chaos as a function of a nonlinearity parameter. For perioddoubl ..."
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Cited by 84 (14 self)
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Computation at levels beyond storage and transmission of information appears in physical systems at phase transitions. We investigate this phenomenon using minimal computational models of dynamical systems that undergo a transition to chaos as a function of a nonlinearity parameter. For perioddoubling and bandmerging cascades, we derive expressions for the entropy, the interdependence ofmachine complexity and entropy, and the latent complexity of the transition to chaos. At the transition deterministic finite automaton models diverge in size. Although there is no regular or contextfree Chomsky grammar in this case, we give finite descriptions at the higher computational level of contextfree Lindenmayer systems. We construct a restricted indexed contextfree grammar and its associated oneway nondeterministic nested stack automaton for the cascade limit language. This analysis of a family of dynamical systems suggests a complexity theoretic description of phase transitions based on the informational diversity and computational complexity of observed data that is independent of particular system control parameters. The approach gives a much more refined picture of the architecture of critical states than is available via
Two views of belief: Belief as generalized probability and belief as evidence
, 1992
"... : Belief functions are mathematical objects defined to satisfy three axioms that look somewhat similar to the Kolmogorov axioms defining probability functions. We argue that there are (at least) two useful and quite different ways of understanding belief functions. The first is as a generalized prob ..."
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Cited by 72 (12 self)
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: Belief functions are mathematical objects defined to satisfy three axioms that look somewhat similar to the Kolmogorov axioms defining probability functions. We argue that there are (at least) two useful and quite different ways of understanding belief functions. The first is as a generalized probability function (which technically corresponds to the inner measure induced by a probability function). The second is as a way of representing evidence. Evidence, in turn, can be understood as a mapping from probability functions to probability functions. It makes sense to think of updating a belief if we think of it as a generalized probability. On the other hand, it makes sense to combine two beliefs (using, say, Dempster's rule of combination) only if we think of the belief functions as representing evidence. Many previous papers have pointed out problems with the belief function approach; the claim of this paper is that these problems can be explained as a consequence of confounding the...
From Laplace To Supernova Sn 1987a: Bayesian Inference In Astrophysics
, 1990
"... . The Bayesian approach to probability theory is presented as an alternative to the currently used longrun relative frequency approach, which does not offer clear, compelling criteria for the design of statistical methods. Bayesian probability theory offers unique and demonstrably optimal solutions ..."
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Cited by 52 (2 self)
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. The Bayesian approach to probability theory is presented as an alternative to the currently used longrun relative frequency approach, which does not offer clear, compelling criteria for the design of statistical methods. Bayesian probability theory offers unique and demonstrably optimal solutions to wellposed statistical problems, and is historically the original approach to statistics. The reasons for earlier rejection of Bayesian methods are discussed, and it is noted that the work of Cox, Jaynes, and others answers earlier objections, giving Bayesian inference a firm logical and mathematical foundation as the correct mathematical language for quantifying uncertainty. The Bayesian approaches to parameter estimation and model comparison are outlined and illustrated by application to a simple problem based on the gaussian distribution. As further illustrations of the Bayesian paradigm, Bayesian solutions to two interesting astrophysical problems are outlined: the measurement of wea...
Evolutionary Algorithms in Noisy Environments: Theoretical Issues and Guidelines for Practice
 Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering
, 1998
"... This paper is devoted to the effects of fitness noise in EAs (evolutionary algorithms). After a short introduction to the history of this research field, the performance of GAs (genetic algorithms) and ESs (evolution strategies) on the hypersphere test function is evaluated. It will be shown that t ..."
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Cited by 50 (6 self)
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This paper is devoted to the effects of fitness noise in EAs (evolutionary algorithms). After a short introduction to the history of this research field, the performance of GAs (genetic algorithms) and ESs (evolution strategies) on the hypersphere test function is evaluated. It will be shown that the main effects of noise  the decrease of convergence velocity and the residual location error R1  are observed in both GAs and ESs.
Random Worlds and Maximum Entropy
 In Proc. 7th IEEE Symp. on Logic in Computer Science
, 1994
"... Given a knowledge base KB containing firstorder and statistical facts, we consider a principled method, called the randomworlds method, for computing a degree of belief that some formula ' holds given KB . If we are reasoning about a world or system consisting of N individuals, then we can conside ..."
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Cited by 49 (12 self)
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Given a knowledge base KB containing firstorder and statistical facts, we consider a principled method, called the randomworlds method, for computing a degree of belief that some formula ' holds given KB . If we are reasoning about a world or system consisting of N individuals, then we can consider all possible worlds, or firstorder models, with domain f1; : : : ; Ng that satisfy KB , and compute the fraction of them in which ' is true. We define the degree of belief to be the asymptotic value of this fraction as N grows large. We show that when the vocabulary underlying ' and KB uses constants and unary predicates only, we can naturally associate an entropy with each world. As N grows larger, there are many more worlds with higher entropy. Therefore, we can use a maximumentropy computation to compute the degree of belief. This result is in a similar spirit to previous work in physics and artificial intelligence, but is far more general. Of equal interest to the result itself are...
From Statistics to Beliefs
, 1992
"... An intelligent agent uses known facts, including statistical knowledge, to assign degrees of belief to assertions it is uncertain about. We investigate three principled techniques for doing this. All three are applications of the principle of indifference, because they assign equal degree of belief ..."
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Cited by 43 (12 self)
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An intelligent agent uses known facts, including statistical knowledge, to assign degrees of belief to assertions it is uncertain about. We investigate three principled techniques for doing this. All three are applications of the principle of indifference, because they assign equal degree of belief to all basic "situations " consistent with the knowledge base. They differ because there are competing intuitions about what the basic situations are. Various natural patterns of reasoning, such as the preference for the most specific statistical data available, turn out to follow from some or all of the techniques. This is an improvement over earlier theories, such as work on direct inference and reference classes, which arbitrarily postulate these patterns without offering any deeper explanations or guarantees of consistency. The three methods we investigate have surprising characterizations: there are connections to the principle of maximum entropy, a principle of maximal independence, an...